$LWLG
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为上纳斯达克而稀释一点点反而利好 SIVE
为了登陆 NASDAQ 稀释 2.5%，对 $SIVE 来说其实非常看多；我看到它在美国市场交易后会走向 30 亿美元以上市值。 我认为它现在价格被低估了，只是还被瑞典本地市场限制着。 我个人不太明白为什么 $LWLG 和 $POET 能值 23 亿到 26 亿美元，而 Sivers 只大约 15 亿美元，却在给大量 hyperscaler 供应商供货。
英文原文
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.
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欣讯通过鸿海垂直整合间接成为英伟达CPO供应链受益者，被市场忽视且估值偏低。
我很确定像高盛这样的机构在$15亿估值时错过了欣讯(6451)的CPO封装/测试/组装业务。这就是为什么我非常看好它，认为它是一个完全走后门的、隐藏的英伟达CPO产能提升的主要受益者。鸿海是其供应链中的主要合作伙伴，包括$TSM和$ASX。但是……欣讯是鸿海的光学部门，并承接其内部的全部光学和先进封装业务。所以它们没有在任何地方被明确列出，也没有与英伟达的直接合同（但鸿海有）。但很可能通过鸿海垂直整合吸收了英伟达的CPO和其他产能。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.
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Foxconn 让 Shunsin 进入 Nvidia 供应链
只是提醒一下：我不需要每天都发一条关于我持有标的的帖子。 不过，关于 Shunsin（6451）这件事我确实漏掉了： $NVDA 选择了富士康作为 Groq 加速器的独家机架级供应商。 这对 Shunsin（富士康的光学封装业务）非常正面。 所以 ShunSin 的 CPO 和光学封装，基本上借着这条新闻，间接搭上了 Nvidia 的下一代供应链。 市场还没有意识到这层关系（而且它在流通盘分布里，对大多数人来说是被冻结的）。 文章里明确写到，富士康正在整合这些系统，包括“……网络”。 既然富士康是独家组装商，它就会垂直整合，并很可能把 ShunSin 的光学封装方案纳入设计里，而不需要 ShunSin 直接从 Nvidia 那里拿到网络合同。 这就是我说 Shunsin 本质上是在白嫖 $NVDA CPO 生态的意思。富士康体量太大了。 而且你得到的是 Nvidia 光学供应链里的头部玩家，估值却比 $LWLG 还低，哈哈。
英文原文
Just an FYI: I don't need to post something every day about the names I own. However, I did miss this with Shunsin (6451): Foxconn picked by $NVDA as exclusive rack-scale supplier for Groq accelerator. This is highly positive for Shunsin (Foxconn's optical packing arm). So ShunSin's CPO and optical packaging basically backdoored Nvidia's next-gen supply chain with this news. Markets just haven't realized this connection yet (and it's on disposition, so frozen for most). The article explicitly notes that Foxconn is integrating these systems "including ... networking." Bc Foxconn is the exclusive assembler, they'll vertically integrate and likely use ShunSin's optical packaging solutions into the design, bypassing ShunSin's need for networking contract directly from Nvidia. This is what I meant by Shunsin is literally a free piggy back ride to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. Foxconn is massive. And you're getting the leading player in Nvidia's optical supply chain for a lower valuation than $LWLG lol.
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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LWLG 式研发合作加稀释
这相当负面。是大新闻，但本质上是那种没有营收的研发合作，和 $LWLG、$TSEM 那类差不多。 他们还有一个巨额稀释投票，3 周左右会把 4500 万股增到 9500 万股，我对这种大幅稀释周期非常反感。 不过我预计大家最后还是会因为 FOMO / 新闻去买。
英文原文
Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles. But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.
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LWLG 和 SIVE 的估值对比
@SidkMena $LWLG 只有一项和 $TSEM 的开发协议试验，市值却有 22 亿美元。 $SIVE 正在出货激光器，明年很可能会进入几乎所有超大规模云厂商的光学项目里，而市值只有 8.2 亿美元。 这是我今天看到的最被低估的机会之一。
英文原文
@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B $SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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说看完评论后对 LWLG 的看法更负面了。
@FrankMakrides 看完你的评论后我改主意了，现在对 $LWLG 的看法更偏负面了。
英文原文
@FrankMakrides Changed my mind after reading your comments, have a more negative opinion on $LWLG now.
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认为富士康光学供应链比无营收试制公司更有价值。
@StrateGeee 鸿海这边是活生生的……$NVDA 的光学供应链，负责封装、测试和组装…… 居然比一个没有收入的 $LWLG 和 $TSEM 之间的开发试验还便宜。
英文原文
@StrateGeee Foxconn’s live.. $NVDA optical supply chain for packaging, test, and assembly.. Is valued less than a development trial between no revenue $LWLG and $TSEM
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
英文原文
Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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看好 Shunsin 翻倍，难接受其估值低于 LWLG。
@TD_btc24 我很看好 Shunsin（6451）翻倍。很难接受鸿海的光学封装业务估值还低于 $LWLG，笑死。
英文原文
@TD_btc24 Pretty confident in Shunsin (6451) doubling. Hard to see Foxconn’s optical packaging arm valued less than $LWLG lol
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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越看越觉得 ALRIB 很有吸引力。
$ALRIB 这只我开始越看越顺眼了。 首先，它有 $MSFT Quantum 作为核心 hyperscaler 客户。 然后它还有像 QD Laser 这样的量子点客户……以及像 $IQE 这样的光子晶圆代工客户。 而且它是盈利的，还在分红…… 在 MBE 领域也是真正的双寡头。 再加上新的硅光机器突破，订单簿还在加速增长…… 我一直把 $LWLG 和 Riber 这种东西拿来对比，然后就一直在想： 这在当前价格下，难道不就是很有吸引力吗？
英文原文
$ALRIB is starting to grow on me. First they have $MSFT Quantum as their core hyperscaler customer. Then they have Quantum Dot like QD Laser… and photonics foundries like $IQE as customers. And it’s profitable + paying dividends… And a genuine duopoly in the MBE space. And accelerating order book growth with a new breakthrough in silicon photonics machines.. I keep comparing $LWLG with stuff like Riber, then I keep thinking: Isn’t this just highly compelling at current prices?
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认为 SIVE 若是美股会值 20 亿以上，并有清晰上行路径。
我其实觉得如果 $SIVE 作为美国公司挂牌，今天就应该交易在 20 亿美元以上市值……而不是等到今年晚些时候。 因为我不太明白： - $LWLG 为什么会交易到 3.5 倍以上的估值 - 做自己激光器封装的公司，估值却只有它的 5-6 倍 - 像从 $MTSI 到 $LITE 这些激光公司，估值都在几十亿美元区间。 而 Sivers 又是通过 $MRVL、$JBL、O-Net 等进入 hyperscaler 供应链，而不是只依赖单一客户。 全球公开上市的 AI 数据中心激光公司其实也没多少。 所以它要么会成为 $AVGO 或 $MRVL 很想纵向整合上游的高优先级收购标的。 要么它可以走 $LITE 那种路线：从 17 美元涨到 800 美元，并通过 IP 收购把 ELS / optical transceiver stack 的下游 TAM 扩大。 当然，这取决于公司到底有多激进，但我就是觉得自从我发 thesis 后，没人真正注意到瑞典这个激光供应商。 可能只是需要给美国上市一点耐心，我几乎可以确定美国机构会像对 $IQE 那样感兴趣。 DD 周期通常在他们读完我的 thesis 后会持续几周，但我看得到未来几年从这里走到 100 亿美元以上市值的清晰路径。
英文原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
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说 SIVE 近期开启美国重新上市路线。
@JustaMetaDude 对，看起来 $SIVE 近期开启美国重新上市的路线了。 这应该会释放很多资本，我真不明白 $LWLG 为什么能交易到 4 倍估值。
英文原文
@JustaMetaDude Yeah looks like re-listing in US is on near term roadmap for $SIVE. That should unlock a lot of capital, not sure how $LWLG trades at 4x the valuation
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说信息发现会吸引注意力，不是发帖的人。
我有这么强吗？ 我觉得大概只是信息综合与发现而已。要是我发一篇关于一家纸巾公司 8 倍市盈率的帖子，没人会在意。 但当 $SIVE 是 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的光源，市值只有大约 4 亿美元…… 而且只交易像 $LWLG 这种更投机名字估值的四分之一…… 而其他像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 之类做 CW DFB 的公司市值都在几十亿美元时…… 最后吸引大家注意力的，是信息本身，而不是发信息的人。
英文原文
am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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用容量和供应链地位推演 AAOI 与 SIVE 的潜在市值上修空间，认为光学超级周期极其夸张。
我觉得市场应该这样给它们定价： $AAOI：从 93 美元到 162 美元（约 130 亿美元市值），这是在他们今天公布新产能预测之后的合理水平。 而 $SIVE 至少也应该从 7.7 美元到 38.5 美元，按约 11 亿美元市值去看？ 如果其中一个到 2027 年末扩产到约 19.7 亿美元的产能（基本上就等于营收，因为超大规模云厂商会把能买的都买掉）， 那另一个又是从 $AMZN Trainium 到 $MSFT Maia 集群的超大规模云供应链里，最可能的激光供应商？ 至少也该把未来营收增长计进去。 这还不算执行不确定性，也没给其他像 $LWLG 这类公司加上溢价（它们也已经有 11 亿美元以上市值）。 如果 Win Semi 认证了 $SIVE，而 $POET / Ayar 等继续扩产，我觉得 $SIVE 的估值从这里 20-30 倍都不是没可能？ 如果 $AAOI 真按每月 3.78 亿美元的目标跑，股价从这里 5 倍到大约 300 亿美元市值也完全可能。 这些潜在目标价足以说明光学超级周期有多夸张（像存储一样），只是最终要看每家公司执行得如何。
英文原文
I feel like markets should value: $AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today. and $SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least? If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make) Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters? At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth. This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+. If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here? If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC. These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.
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惊讶于 SIVE 只值约 2 亿美元却承担着超大规模云光子供应链的关键激光角色。
我越研究 Sivers <$SIVE / $SIVEF>，越会想： 给超大规模云光子供应链供激光的公司…… 怎么才值大约 2 亿美元市值？ 那些买它们激光再重新封装的公司，现在市值都已经 10 亿到 40 亿美元以上了？ 连还没产品的 SV AI 公司都能值几十亿美元？ 还在开发阶段、还没收入的光子公司，像 $LWLG 这种都已经 10 亿美元以上？ 结果真正让硅光 / CPO 的 scale-up 和 scale-out 跑起来的公司。 而且还是真有营收的。 却只值 2 亿美元…… 这让我想起最早期的 $AXTI，当时我完全没意识到，一家市值 5 亿美元的公司竟然掌控着 InP 基板 / 原料供应链。 要么我完全错了……要么这就是市场上最被低估、最不为人知的光子公司。
英文原文
The more I look into Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > the more I wonder: How is the laser company for the hyperscaler photonic supply chains… Valued at ~$200M USD MC? All the companies that buy and repackage their lasers are now worth $1-4B+? Pre-product SV AI companies are worth billions? Pre revenue Photonic companies in development phase line $LWLG are worth $1B+? Yet the company that makes the silicon photonics/CPO scale up & scale out work. And has actual revenue. ~$200M… Reminds me of early $AXTI when I had zero clue how a company worth $500M MC controlled the InP substrate/feedstock supply chain for photonics. Either I’m completely wrong… or this is the most undervalued and unknown photonics company on the market.
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
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作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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表示自己做空 LWLG，因为这个 ticker 老在自己的帖子下刷屏。
@themissinglinks 我个人做空了 $LWLG，因为这个 ticker 一直在我每条帖子下面刷屏。
英文原文
@themissinglinks I personally shorted $LWLG because this ticker keeps getting spammed under all my posts.
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认为 LWLG 太投机，更偏好 Soitec
@demarscrypto 对我来说，$LWLG 太投机了，哪怕还有 $TSEM 的整合因素。 和 Soitec 这类名字相比，我发现后者的风险回报更好一些，而它们的市值区间也差不多（约 7 亿到 20 亿美元）。
英文原文
@demarscrypto $LWLG too speculative for me given MC, even with $TSEM integration. Found better risk reward to be with names like Soitec, which share similar MCs range ($700m-$2B range).
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LWLG虽与TSEM整合重要，但从零收入和投机角度看风险较高
我已经研究过$LWLG了。对我个人来说，没有披露任何财务条款，而且这只是一个整合合作关系。所以从零收入角度来看太投机了，像Soitec这样的公司已经通过供应链把产品卖给$NVDA，价值也没比这高多少。但人们可以自由承担这个风险。不过话说回来，$TSEM的整合对他们的公司来说是非常重要的。
英文原文
Already looked into $LWLG. For me personally, there’s no disclosed financial terms and it’s an integration partnership. So too speculative off zero revenue, companies like Soitec already pass through supply to $NVDA and aren’t worth that much more. But people are free to take that risk. That being said the $TSEM integration is extremely material for their company.