$O-Net
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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认为 SIVE 若是美股会值 20 亿以上，并有清晰上行路径。
我其实觉得如果 $SIVE 作为美国公司挂牌，今天就应该交易在 20 亿美元以上市值……而不是等到今年晚些时候。 因为我不太明白： - $LWLG 为什么会交易到 3.5 倍以上的估值 - 做自己激光器封装的公司，估值却只有它的 5-6 倍 - 像从 $MTSI 到 $LITE 这些激光公司，估值都在几十亿美元区间。 而 Sivers 又是通过 $MRVL、$JBL、O-Net 等进入 hyperscaler 供应链，而不是只依赖单一客户。 全球公开上市的 AI 数据中心激光公司其实也没多少。 所以它要么会成为 $AVGO 或 $MRVL 很想纵向整合上游的高优先级收购标的。 要么它可以走 $LITE 那种路线：从 17 美元涨到 800 美元，并通过 IP 收购把 ELS / optical transceiver stack 的下游 TAM 扩大。 当然，这取决于公司到底有多激进，但我就是觉得自从我发 thesis 后，没人真正注意到瑞典这个激光供应商。 可能只是需要给美国上市一点耐心，我几乎可以确定美国机构会像对 $IQE 那样感兴趣。 DD 周期通常在他们读完我的 thesis 后会持续几周，但我看得到未来几年从这里走到 100 亿美元以上市值的清晰路径。
英文原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.