$HPS.A
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称Hammond是加拿大变压器瓶颈多头。
回复 @AliTava2020：$HPS.A 是我在加拿大的变压器瓶颈多头。 它有很大的积压订单，所以多年收入可见度高，并且在干式变压器中市场份额高。 美国 Production Act 可能会让 Hammond 这类公司受益。
英文原文
@AliTava2020 $HPS.A was my Canadian long for transformers bottleneck. Pretty large backlog, so multi-year revenue visibility, high market share over dry transformers. US production Act likely benefiting companies like Hammond.
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Hammond变压器多头两个月上涨83%，需求可见度高。
$HPS.A 接近两个月时间框架。 “天上的变压器”自那以后上涨83.3%。大黄蜂 go brrr？ 但说真的，变压器需求可见度非常高，积压订单扎实，干式变压器市场份额高。 不算抛物线式上涨，但看起来是一个有吸引力的复利标的。
英文原文
$HPS.A is close is to a 2M timeframe. Transformers in the Sky are up 83.3% since. Bumblebee go brrr? But in all reality, transformers demand visibility is very high, solid backlog, high market share (of dry). Not exactly parabolic, but looks like a compelling compounder. https://t.co/bNGwjqfZ4M
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分享周末研究的热管理和功率半导体供应链主题股票清单
随便分享一些我周末研究的随机主题： -> 功率半导体、集成电压调节器、多相控制器、CDU、冷板、歧管、泵、阀门、热交换器、背门系统、冷水机。 $POWL、$NVT、010120 KS、267260 KS、2308 TT、$VICR、$POWI、宁德时代、阳光电源 300274 C -> 热管理相关（ALFA SS、ASTK DC、大金 6367 JP）、$CARR、MTRS SS） 这些只是我之前聊过的之外的一些，比如 $NVTS 或 $HPS.A。 它们都有点已经被定价了，但现在是个好的起点，可以帮你找到那些还没被定价的更重要玩家。 然后你会问：这些产品最有可能依赖哪一家公司？ 我个人对能源/散热/电力这个交易领域不太熟悉，我很高兴承认这一点，因为一切都是学习的过程。 但通常即使我发现了一些有趣的东西，我也觉得它不如继续持有CPO多头更有说服力。学习更多总是很有趣的。 一直在寻找SRAM相关的敞口，我觉得私募市场比 $CBRS 更好。
英文原文
Just random themes im looking im having a good time looking into over the weekend: -> power semis, integrated voltage regulators, multiphase controllers, CDUs, cold plates, manifolds, pumps, valves, heat exchangers, rear-door systems, chillers. $POWL, $NVT, 010120 KS, 267260 KS, 2308 TT, $VICR, $POWI , CATL, Sungrow 300274 C -> thermal stuff (ALFA SS, ASTK DC, Daikin 6367 JP), $CARR, MTRS SS) These are just ones aside from the ones I've talked about eg. $NVTS or $HPS.A. They're all kinda more priced in but now but it's a good starting point in terms of finding more important players that's not priced in. Then you try and look: which single company do most of these probably rely on? I'm personally less familiar with the energy/cooling/power trade, which I'm happy to admit since everything is a learning process. But normally even if I find something interesting, i don't find it more compelling than staying in CPO longs. Always it's always fun learning more. Was always looking for SRAM-adjacent exposure, think private markets are better to go then $CBRS?
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炫耀组合大部分未实现收益并继续复利
有个事实：我组合里 70% 以上还是未实现收益，很多仓位我一股都没卖。 如果像 $AXTI 这种涨了 1900%+，$SIVE 涨了 1000%+，更大的集中仓位也有 $SOI 这种 300%+ 的回报，当然会轻松很多。 但总的来说，除了更晚才建仓的 thesis 名字，比如已经接近 100% 的 $HPS.A，整个组合基本都在三位数收益。 连新仓 Shunsin 现在都大概涨了 35%+。 我现在大概是 1.3x 到 1.4x 杠杆，仓位 96% 左右都是股票。之前我就用已经上涨的仓位去加杠杆，继续复利到别的机会里。
英文原文
Fun fact: over 70%+ of my portfolio is unrealized, I haven't sold a single share in many of these. It helps if things like $AXTI hit 1900%+ returns, $SIVE hit 1000%+ returns, and everything larger in concentration hit 300% like $SOI. But basically entire portfolio is up triple digits aside from newer thesis names I've entered like $HPS.A which is getting close to 100%. Even Shunsin, which is new up 35%+ now or something. I'm on 1.3x-1.4x leverage right now, 96% or so shares only. I've been using previous positions that appreciated to compound more with others using margin.
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说 HPS.A 在他发帖后几乎每天都在涨
我很喜欢 $HPS.A 从我发 thesis 之后就像一条垂直线一样，每天都涨 2-3%。 离三位数回报只差 20 加元了。 https://t.co/CHqWQKzH5E
英文原文
I like how $HPS.A is just a vertical line up 2-3% increase every day since my thesis post. Just 20 CAD away before it hits triple digit returns. https://t.co/CHqWQKzH5E
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认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强
我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的，像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字，通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
英文原文
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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看好变压器和基础设施相关公司
我把这条直接放出来： 像 $PLPC 到 $AMSC 这些公司，和两周前比都表现得还不错。 $HPS.A（我的变压器 thesis）今天也出了财报，而且非常强： 264M 加元，对比 236.3M 加元，明显超预期；backlog 同比增长 94.6%，这是这些名字需求的领先指标。 它们都对美国基础设施至关重要，不是那种会直线暴涨的成长股……但都是很好的复利型公司。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: A lot of these names from $PLPC to $AMSC are doing decently well from two weeks ago. $HPS.A (my transformers thesis) earnings also came out today and it’s very solid: $264M CAD vs $236.3M CAD (strong beat) and backlog increased 94.6% Y/Y which is the leading indicator of a demand for these names. They’re all critical to American infrastructure, not exactly parabolic growth names… but great compounders.
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评论美国产业政策倾向：资助非中国企业赴美建厂，实质是排除中国的供应链战略。
这就像给韩国锌业拨款在美国建精炼厂，或者给台积电($TSM)拨款在美国建晶圆厂一样。$HPS.A是北美最大的干式变压器(dry transformers)和开关设备(switchgear)供应商，他们在美国也有关键的生产设施，比如威斯康辛和加利福尼亚。我认为这基本上就是"什么都行，就是不要中国"。
英文原文
It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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刚才是把 HPS.A 说成 HPS.A 的笔误。
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 对，$HPS.A 我刚才打错了，平时在 X 上说太多，抱歉。
英文原文
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 yeah $HPS.A typo, i talk a lot on X mb
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回应称$HPS.A两周涨21%，认为该股未来有翻倍潜力，需耐心持有。
回复@cryptochelss 什么都没变啊？两周内就涨了约21%……有时候就是得有耐心，我期望$HPS.A最终能在未来翻倍。
英文原文
@cryptochelss Nothings changed? It’s up like 21% in 2 weeks… Just gotta be patient sometimes, I expect $HPS.A to double down the road eventually.
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说 HPS.A 这周表现不错，但自己并非无条件看多。
$HPS.A 这一周表现相当不错……请别问我在没变的情况下是不是还看多。 它还是大概涨了 18.4% 左右，价格不会直线上行。 不过话说回来，你最好还是自己建立判断，这样答案你自己也能决定。
英文原文
It's been a solid... 1 week for $HPS.A, please don't ask me if I'm still bullish if nothings changed. It's still up 18.4% or so, things don't move up in a straight line. But that aside, probably better to develop your own conviction on it, so you can decide that answer for yourself.
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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说 HPS.A 一周前的变形金刚 thesis 已涨约 30%。
Bumblebee 或 Optimus Prime 什么时候让你失望过？ $HPS.A 自从我一周前写出 transformers thesis 以来，已经涨了大约 30%+。 我把这些都免费分享出来，是为了帮助散户跑赢市场、抢在机构前面。 一切都还在继续涨…… https://t.co/1JL7xXAVRB
英文原文
Has Bumblebee or Optimus Prime ever let you down? $HPS.A already up ~30%+ since my transformers thesis a week ago. I share all this for free to help retail outperform and frontrun institutions. Everything keeps going up… https://t.co/1JL7xXAVRB
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认为变压器 / 开关设备是 DC 瓶颈，需求和 backlog 都很强。
遗憾的是，我的票并不是每周都能翻三位数。 $HPS.A 目前也就涨了大约 17%。 Hammond 是我在变压器 / 开关设备这个 DC 瓶颈上的选择，因为它市值更低，但在干式变压器市场的份额很高。 $POWL 也是我经常遇到的另一只不错的开关设备多头；我最后没有买，但还是顺手提一下。 变压器 / 开关设备大概被低估了，作为瓶颈很重要，但很多型号未来 2 到 5 年都已经卖光了。 也正因为如此，它们正在造成大范围的 DC 延迟，而从 backlog 可见度和极端需求来看，这些标的应该会是不错的结构性多头。
英文原文
Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week. $HPS.A is only up ~17% so far. Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share. $POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there. Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years. Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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认为多年期瓶颈让人能更安心持有，因为订单可见度延伸到 2028。
多年期瓶颈的好处在于： 从 $HPS.A 到 $SNDK 再到 $LITE 即便像今天这样市场波动，你也能睡得更安稳一点。 因为你知道即使只有 1 年，需求也会极其强劲…… 就算特朗普想把 Bikini Bottom 炸了，其他公司也可能受影响更大： -> 一家在变压器市场份额极大 -> 一家在 NAND 市场份额极大 -> 一家在 EML/OCS 市场份额极大。 而它们的共同点是，订单大概率都已经排到 2028 年。 这意味着几乎可以确定的基本面收入，以及下一年大概率的利润率扩张。 现在还是 2026 年上半年。
英文原文
The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from: $HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today. Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year... Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted: -> One has a huge market share over Transformers -> One has huge market share over NAND -> One has huge market share over EML/OCS. And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028. Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year. It's H1 2026 now.