$PLPC
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看好变压器和基础设施相关公司
我把这条直接放出来： 像 $PLPC 到 $AMSC 这些公司，和两周前比都表现得还不错。 $HPS.A（我的变压器 thesis）今天也出了财报，而且非常强： 264M 加元，对比 236.3M 加元，明显超预期；backlog 同比增长 94.6%，这是这些名字需求的领先指标。 它们都对美国基础设施至关重要，不是那种会直线暴涨的成长股……但都是很好的复利型公司。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: A lot of these names from $PLPC to $AMSC are doing decently well from two weeks ago. $HPS.A (my transformers thesis) earnings also came out today and it’s very solid: $264M CAD vs $236.3M CAD (strong beat) and backlog increased 94.6% Y/Y which is the leading indicator of a demand for these names. They’re all critical to American infrastructure, not exactly parabolic growth names… but great compounders.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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指出AMSC和PLPC虽为行政令受益股，但涨幅有限，不可能单日暴涨48%。
@Yolo365247isme 我确实也把$AMSC和$PLPC列为行政令受益股，但 conviction 没有那么高。 我的意思是 AMSC 今天涨了 8.58%，PLPC 涨了 6.37%，它们不可能一天就涨 48%。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I do have $AMSC and $PLPC as the executive order beneficiaries as well but not as high conviction. I mean AMSC is up 8.58% and PLPC is up 6.37% today, they don’t just go up 48% in a day.
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DPA 受益者清单
是的。总统在两天前援引了“国防生产法”。 这是为了扩张本土基础设施。 隐含受益者包括： 输电和先进导体： $AMSC - HTS 线材（先进导体）、电力电子 $PLPC - 先进导体 $ATKR - 输电组件 $VMI - 电网组件 电力电子 $AEIS - 电力控制电子 $VICR - 电力传输 电容组 $VSH - 电力电容和电容组 变电站和高压断路器 $POWL - 变电站 / 开关设备 $AZZ - 变电站 变压器 $HPS.A - 我最喜欢的变压器标的 $SPXC - 电力变压器 电工核心钢 $CLF - 美国唯一的电工钢生产商？ 这里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、电容组 - 电工核心钢 TLDR：这项行政行动宣布了关于电网基础设施本土供应链的国家能源紧急状态。它授权联邦资金、采购承诺和加速措施，以迅速扩产。 受益者很多，我把 $AMSC、$CLF、$PLPC、还有 $HPS.A 组成了一个迷你 ETF；其他的我没持有。 我猜接下来 3 到 6 个月会有一堆 DOE 合同，比如“DoE 奖励 ___ 给 $POWL”之类的。
英文原文
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago. To expand on domestic infra. Implicit beneficiaries were: Transmission & Advanced Conductors: $AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics $PLPC - advanced conductors $ATKR - transmission components $VMI - grid components Power Electronics $AEIS - power control electronics $VICR - power delivery Capacitor Banks $VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers $POWL - substations/switchgear $AZZ - substations Transformers $HPS.A - My favorite for transformers $SPXC - power transformers Electrical Core Steel $CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America? This included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing. Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others. There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.