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高盛看好AI驱动光通信供应链，多环节供应商名单汇总
如果你对高盛的报告感兴趣： 他们预期以下领域会出现"显著的每股收益(EPS)增长"： 1. 光学模块和引擎 2. 连续波(CW)激光器和电吸收调制激光器(EML) 3. 印制电路板(PCB)/覆铜板(CCL)制造商 以下是这份超详细清单： 激光器/光源(硅光子SiPh)：Sumitomo、Furukawa(5801)、Landmark(3081)、YJ Semi、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、Etern、曙光光电(https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT)、世嘉光子(https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm)、应用光电(AAOI)、Accelink、三菱电机(6503) 激光器/光源(EML)：Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、博通(AVGO)、YJ Semi、永恒光电(Etern)、住友电工(5802)、曙光光电、世嘉光子、Source Photonics(私营)、三菱电机(6503)、Accelink、古河电气(5801) 无源光学组件-耦合器/分路器：FOCI(3363)、Senko(私营)、AFR、Everprox、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR) 无源光学组件-滤波器：世嘉光子、住友电工(5802)、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、唯亚威(VIAV)、FOCI(3363) 无源光学组件-衰减器：Everprox、Accelink、FOCI(3363)、Lumentum(LITE) 无源光学组件-波分复用(WDM)：AFR、Everprox、Accelink、Ciena(CIEN)、TFC Optical、Lumentum(LITE)、FOCI(3363)
英文原文
If you're curious about Goldman's Report: They expect "significant EPS upside" among: 1. Optical modules and engines 2. CW lasers and EMLs 3. PCB/CCL manufacturers Here's the massive cheat sheet: Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Mitsubishi (6503.T) Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (https://t.co/qWTYoY2y6z), Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Furukawa (5801.T) Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR) Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO) Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE) Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (https://t.co/fjsjeuQxcq), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)
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TER 不是好代理，FORM 和 VIAV 更纯
@gregory_FTA $TER 不是个好的代理，因为它们体量太大了。它们还暴露在非 AI 领域，比如智能手机芯片、EV/汽车。 而且它们还要面对 Advantest 的竞争。 更好的信号是更纯粹的标的，比如 $FORM 和 $VIAV。
英文原文
@gregory_FTA $TER is not a good proxy because they're extremely large. They had exposure to non-AI segments like smartphone chips, EV/automotive. Then they're facing competition from Advantest. Best signals are more pure play from $FORM and $VIAV.
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测试/良率链条普遍利多
我帮你盯着这件事（测试/良率篇）： $VIAV 和 $FORM 的财报：极度看多 这意味着什么？ 像 $ONTO / $CAMT 这样的名字会起飞。再加上 $TOWA（6315），因为有迹象显示存储产量正在激进爬坡。 像 Msscorps / $KEYS 这样的名字也会起飞。 更广泛来看，存储和光学生态的上游良率、测试、验证和检测都会大幅受益。而且如果它们正在扩产，这对 $COHR、$FN、$LITE 等也都是领先指标。 对 $VIAV： -> 4.068 亿美元 vs. 3.93 亿美元（超预期）同比增长 42.8%。 -> 每股收益 0.27 美元 vs. 0.2-0.24 美元 指引为 4.27 亿至 4.37 亿美元，显示加速。 对 $FORM： -> 2.26 亿美元，按年增长 32%，每股收益 0.56 美元 vs. 0.45 美元 -> 毛利率大幅提升到 49%（这说明有定价权）。 -> 指引为每股收益 0.61 美元，中值营收约 2.4 亿美元。 “高带宽存储（HBM）需求创纪录，以及代工和逻辑网络应用更强劲” 基本上就是更小的良率/测试生态整体都在起飞。BRRR。
英文原文
Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
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同意供应链视角很重要，自己更偏好小市值的 AEHR。
@KawzInvests 这份供应链总览做得不错！是的，$VIAV、$AEHR 都很好。 我个人只是更喜欢像 Aehr 这种更小市值的名字，因为这意味着上行空间更大，但 beta 也更高，因为它还没那么被验证。
英文原文
@KawzInvests Nice high level overview on the supply chain! Yeah $VIAV $AEHR are all great. I just personally like the smaller MC names like Aehr, since it implies higher upside, but higher beta since it's less proven.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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认为光子 TAM 太大，完全可以做一个相关 ETF，但自己更喜欢直接持有个股。
很高兴听到！是啊，光子对 AI 的 TAM 实在太大了，所以会出现很多不同名字。 你当然可以把 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR 以及另外 20 多家公司做成一个 ETF，然后坐等。 不过……我个人更喜欢自己挑赢家。
英文原文
Glad to hear! Yeah, there's so many different names since photonics TAM for AI is massive. You can definitely make an ETF of stuff like $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR, and the 20+ other companies. Then probably sit back and chill. But... I personally like to try and pick a few of the highest upside winners personally.
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.