· 供应链分析
相关概念： CPO 共封装光学
今年最有趣的辟谣来自 $VIAV 关于共封装光学(CPO) 时间表的言论： “嗯，业界有很多关于延迟的讨论，比如‘哦，因为良率会较慢’。 那都是胡扯。CPO 和所有相关事物都在推进。” 他们表示，虽然始终存在问题，但流程正在改善，情况正在好转。 对此补充，CEO 表示： - Viavi 拥有 CPO 测试活动的采购订单(PO) - “我们本季度已经开始获得 [CPO 收入]，可能 12 月会开始加速。” 顺便一提，他们还表示 1.6T 正在“快速爬坡”，明年应与 800G 持平，并暗示 800G 需求有更长的尾部效应。 简而言之：看到 CPO 测试收入正从 $VIAV 流向 $FORM 等公司。英伟达(Nvidia) 也表示用于扩展的交换机侧 CPO 已提前进入量产。 至于垂直扩展(scale up) 时间表，部分厂商的早期生产应在 2027 年下半年，而其他 CPO 厂商 Ayar 表示 2028 年是放量拐点。 基本上，所有时间表似乎与之前相同，收入正开始首先惠及测试厂商。
Funniest callout of the year from $VIAV on CPO timelines: "Well, there's been a lot of industry talk [about delays], like, 'Oh, because the yield is going to be slower.' That's all nonsense. CPO and all that thing is moving forward" They stated that Yes there's always issues, but the process is being improved and things are getting better. To follow up on that, the CEO stated: - Viavi has POs for CPO-testing activity - “We’re already getting [CPO revenue] this quarter, and probably in December it will start accelerating.” On a side note, they also stated, 1.6T is "ramping very quickly", should reach parity with 800g next year, and signaled longer tail for 800g demand. TLDR: Seeing CPO test revenues hit for $VIAV to $FORM around now. Nvidia also stated switch-side CPO for scale out and scale across has entered mass production earlier. As for scale up timelines, early production should be H2 2027 for some players, with other CPO players Ayar stating 2028 is the volume inflection period. Basically, all the timelines seem to be the same as before and revenue is starting to hit testing players first.