$ONTO
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称CHIPS Act 2影响分析可作为供应链研究资料。
老实说，CHIPS Act 2 的供应链研究有点神。 因为如果你看他们的影响分析，欧盟政府已经替你做了很多工作。 他们会提到 TOWA 这类名字，“在模塑和密封系统中占61%”。 然后还会拆解 $ONTO、$BESI 等公司的控制环节。
英文原文
Honestly CHIPS ACT 2 supply chain research is kinda goated. since its done for you by the EU government if you go through their impact analysis. They mention names like TOWA "61% in moulding and sealing systems" Then breakdown of control like $ONTO, $BESI, etc. https://t.co/XRREGsEw0E
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列出被点名的玻璃基板龙头链条
如果你感兴趣，这里是被点名的“领先”玻璃基板玩家： • $LPK —— TGV Equipment • $GLW —— 玻璃材料 • $ASGLY（5201 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $NIDGY（5214 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $LRCX —— 刻蚀设备 • $DSCSY（6146 T）—— 切割设备 • $SMHSF —— 键合系统 • $ONTO —— 检测工具 • $KLAC —— 检测工具 很有意思，像我年初就提到过的 LPK，当时市值只有大约 1.5 亿美元，如今却被 Trendforce 等机构点名成了关键玩家。
英文原文
“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.
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FORM 与 ONTO 都不差
@labubu_trader $FORM 或 $ONTO 都很难出错。整个生态现在都在飞速加速。
英文原文
@labubu_trader Hard to go wrong with $FORM or $ONTO. The whole ecosystem is just accelerating so fast right now.
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测试/良率链条普遍利多
我帮你盯着这件事（测试/良率篇）： $VIAV 和 $FORM 的财报：极度看多 这意味着什么？ 像 $ONTO / $CAMT 这样的名字会起飞。再加上 $TOWA（6315），因为有迹象显示存储产量正在激进爬坡。 像 Msscorps / $KEYS 这样的名字也会起飞。 更广泛来看，存储和光学生态的上游良率、测试、验证和检测都会大幅受益。而且如果它们正在扩产，这对 $COHR、$FN、$LITE 等也都是领先指标。 对 $VIAV： -> 4.068 亿美元 vs. 3.93 亿美元（超预期）同比增长 42.8%。 -> 每股收益 0.27 美元 vs. 0.2-0.24 美元 指引为 4.27 亿至 4.37 亿美元，显示加速。 对 $FORM： -> 2.26 亿美元，按年增长 32%，每股收益 0.56 美元 vs. 0.45 美元 -> 毛利率大幅提升到 49%（这说明有定价权）。 -> 指引为每股收益 0.61 美元，中值营收约 2.4 亿美元。 “高带宽存储（HBM）需求创纪录，以及代工和逻辑网络应用更强劲” 基本上就是更小的良率/测试生态整体都在起飞。BRRR。
英文原文
Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
现在很多人不停问我对 $LPKK / $LPK 的看法。 是的，我之前说过，它们就像 LIDE（激光诱导深蚀刻）里玻璃核心基板的卡点。 已知最大的合作伙伴是 $ONTO（LPKF 和 Onto 的计量检测合作，用于玻璃核心的大规模生产）。 至于市场份额："超过 80% 的全球主要客户都选择了 LPKF 设备" 用于流程验证。 所以这大概包括： - Samsung Electronics / Electro-Mechanics - $INTC（收到一家领先芯片制造商的大单……在 2020 年初安装了第一套 LIDE 系统……现在又下单更多 LIDE 系统以开始量产） - SKC（Absolics） - $GLW、AGC、Schott。 - Nippon Electric Glass。 当然，这里说的是评估，所以实际放量时那个 80% 可能会更低。 再说一些我自己的前瞻市盈率计算： - 2027：大约 11-12.5 倍，2028 大约 7.8 倍，看起来非常有吸引力。 - 总现金：约 1000 万欧元，债务大约 300 万欧元。负债权益比：约 3.8% 资产负债表非常干净、轻资产，没有像 $SHMD 那样的稀释悬压。 市值约 3.62 亿美元，我的结论是：我认为上行空间很大，迟早会看到机构买入这个名字。 即便 80% 的玩家最终能设计出别的方案，只要有一部分转化，市值也会很有意义。 这可能几个月前还偏早，但玻璃核心路线图现在正像 CPO 一样加速。 披露：我确实有仓位。这只是我的想法。 X 上的人确实做了功课。
英文原文
People nonstop ask me about $LPKK / $LPK for my opinion Yes, I mentioned they're like a chokepoint for glass core substrates for LIDE (laser induced deep etching) way back when. Biggest known partner is $ONTO (LIDE with Onto metrology for glass core mass production). Then as for market share: "more than 80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment" for process validation. So that probably includes: - Samsung Electronics/Electro-Mechanics - $INTC (Receives a Major Order from a Leading Chip Manufacturer... installed a first LIDE system at the beginning of 2020... now ordered further LIDE systems to start volume production) - SKC (Absolics) - $GLW, AGC, Schott. - Nippon electric glass. Of course this is evaluation, so that 80% could be lower in actual ramp. As for some personal FWD P/E calculations: - 2027: ~11-12.5x and ~7.8x for 2028, which looks very compelling. - Total Cash: ~€10.0M, debt was around ~€3.0M. debt to equity: ~3.8% So very clean-asset light balance sheet, no dilution overhang like $SHMD. ~$362m MC, conclusion: great upside long imo, hard to see institutions not buying this name down the road. Even if the 80% of players managed to design another way, even a fraction would probably be very material to the MC. It was probably a bit early few months ago, but glass core roadmaps have been speeding up like CPO. Disclosure: I do have positions. This are just my thoughts. People on X did their homework.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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博主调侃并欢迎粉丝转向半导体资本支出瓶颈投资。
@pepemoonboy 哈哈，你什么时候变成了 $AMKR、$ONTO 等股票的半导体资本支出(Capex)瓶颈投资者？真没想到。我喜欢这种思维转变，欢迎加入。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy LOL when did you become a semi capex bottleneck investor in $AMKR, $ONTO, and others? Was not expecting it. I love the mindset shift, welcome aboard.
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
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博主回应称此前已构建基于供应链瓶颈的ETF组合。
@DaSteeringWheel 我之前确实基于 $ONTO 到 $GLW 等标的构建过一个瓶颈 ETF！ https://t.co/9RsyIarQgM
英文原文
@DaSteeringWheel I did make a bottleneck ETF earlier of names from $ONTO to $GLW! https://t.co/9RsyIarQgM
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分享412%收益来源，推荐存储、光子等瓶颈板块，强调顺势轮动。
年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分归功于选对了板块，从 Jane Street 算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈环节的多头持仓方面，目前我最看好： 1. 存储 - 三星、SK 海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI，（也许还有山形电机，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC 和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些标的。 但其中大多数甚至全部在短期内上涨了 50-100%+，这放大了交易的整体回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是：跟随资金流向和当前的瓶颈环节进行轮动。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转操作。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点经验！
英文原文
Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
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供应链瓶颈等权重组合周涨12.83%，全红表现惊人。
基于供应链映射的“瓶颈ETF”。 没有一只股票是红色的（下跌）。 等权重组合1周收益：+12.83%。 名单： $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% 我觉得机构是不是直接把上周框架里的这份名单全买了？ 这种表现水平简直太疯狂了。
英文原文
The "Bottleneck ETF" from supply chain mapping. Not a single name red. Equal weighted results 1W: +12.83%. List: $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% I feel like institutions just bought this entire list from last week's framework? This level of performance is pretty crazy.
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梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈，看好存储、光子及台积电，指出中游为定价关键。
以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR（太长不看版）及其映射到投资框架的内容： HBM（高带宽内存）： HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星，SK 海力士，$MU HBF（高带宽闪存）- $SNDK，Kioxia Base Die（基础晶圆）- $TSM，三星（内部） CPO（共封装光学）/光子学： 玻璃基板：$GLW，$INTC，Ibiden 光学：$LITE，$AVGO，$COHR，$MRVL 电力传输： 电压：$MPWR，$VICR 散热：$VRT，$NVT，$MOD 电网：$ETN，$SBGSY SiC/GaN（碳化硅/氮化镓）：$ON，$IFNNY 机架：$APH N2 产能： $TSM，$AMD（数据中心先行者），$QLCM，联发科，$NVDA 先进封装： 良率：$CAMT，$ONTO，$KLAC OSATs（外包半导体组装与测试）：$AMKR $BESIY，Disco Semivision 的总结： 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新（SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构）” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的，我对上述的存储/光子学领域（如 SK 海力士/三星，$SNDK，$MU，$LITE）以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸，比如 $AXTI（磷化铟前驱体），但中游玩家是瓶颈所在，并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解，我添加了相关公司的评论。
英文原文
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.
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梳理受益于美光及三星的HBM4供应链中小市值美股标的。
存储超级周期供应链要点： 受益于 $MU 和 SK/三星的美国冷门 HBM4/存储阿尔法标的： $VECO ($20亿) - 激光退火 $PLAB ($21亿) - 光刻掩模版 $ADEA ($21.8亿) - 混合键合 $ACLS ($29亿) - 离子注入 $FORM ($64.3亿) - HBM晶圆测试 $ONTO ($106亿) - 封装量测 $AMKR ($131亿) - 先进封装 $RMBS ($135.5亿) - 存储IP $MKSI ($149亿) - 激光子系统 未包含 $TER 和 $KLAC 等巨头，只想聚焦于知名度较低的标的。 还有一些间接受益者如 $SMTC 和 $MTSI。市场肯定尚未完全定价其中部分标的。 如果我漏掉了任何标的请告诉我。 只是想发布这些，以防你们对其中任何一只感兴趣。
英文原文
Memory Supercycle Supply Chain TLDR: US Sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks that benefit from $MU and SK/Samsung: $VECO ($2B) -Laser annealing $PLAB ($2.1B) - Lithography photomask $ADEA ($2.18B) - Hybrid bonding $ACLS ($2.9B) - Ion implantation $FORM ($6.43B) - HBM wafer testing $ONTO ($10.6B) - Packaging metrology $AMKR ($13.1B) -Advanced packaging $RMBS ($13.55B) - Memory IP $MKSI ($14.9B) - Laser subsystems Didn't include big players like $TER and $KLAC since just wanted to focus on lesser known ones. There's some indirect beneficiaries too like $SMTC and $MTSI. Markets definitely haven't priced some of these in yet. Let me know if I missed any. Just wanted to publish these in case you find any of them interesting.