· 供应链分析

梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈,看好存储、光子及台积电,指出中游为定价关键。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR(太长不看版)及其映射到投资框架的内容: HBM(高带宽内存): HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星,SK 海力士,$MU HBF(高带宽闪存)- $SNDK,Kioxia Base Die(基础晶圆)- $TSM,三星(内部) CPO(共封装光学)/光子学: 玻璃基板:$GLW,$INTC,Ibiden 光学:$LITE,$AVGO,$COHR,$MRVL 电力传输: 电压:$MPWR,$VICR 散热:$VRT,$NVT,$MOD 电网:$ETN,$SBGSY SiC/GaN(碳化硅/氮化镓):$ON,$IFNNY 机架:$APH N2 产能: $TSM,$AMD(数据中心先行者),$QLCM,联发科,$NVDA 先进封装: 良率:$CAMT,$ONTO,$KLAC OSATs(外包半导体组装与测试):$AMKR $BESIY,Disco Semivision 的总结: 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新(SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构)” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的,我对上述的存储/光子学领域(如 SK 海力士/三星,$SNDK,$MU,$LITE)以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸,比如 $AXTI(磷化铟前驱体),但中游玩家是瓶颈所在,并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解,我添加了相关公司的评论。

英文原文

Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.

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