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研究Google TPU v8x玻璃基板供应链瓶颈及潜在受益股。
我持有 $MU 的头寸，但目前只是持有不动。 说到 $INTC，我刚刚研究了关于 Google TPU v8x 据报道使用的 EMIB-T 玻璃可能存在的铝硅酸盐玻璃瓶颈： 例如：钡和锶 -> $SOLV 锡 / 二氧化锡 (SnO2) -> $MTL 化学机械抛光 (CMP) 浆料和纯度过滤器 -> $ENTG 精炼硼酸盐 -> $FEAM 气相二氧化硅 -> $CBT 还没研究完，但他们在该领域的工作确实是一个令人兴奋的机会。
英文原文
I have $MU positions but I'm just sitting on them. Speaking of $INTC, was just looking into possible aluminosilicate glass bottlenecks with EMIB-T on glass reportedly used by Google TPU v8x: eg. Barium & Strontium -> $SOLV Tin / SnO2 -> $MTL CMP Slurries and Purity Filters -> $ENTG Refined Borates -> $FEAM Fumed Silica -> $CBT Haven't finished yet, but their work in the area is definitely an exciting opportunity
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.