· 个股论点

LPK 是玻璃基板卡点

涉及标的:

中文翻译

现在很多人不停问我对 $LPKK / $LPK 的看法。 是的,我之前说过,它们就像 LIDE(激光诱导深蚀刻)里玻璃核心基板的卡点。 已知最大的合作伙伴是 $ONTO(LPKF 和 Onto 的计量检测合作,用于玻璃核心的大规模生产)。 至于市场份额:"超过 80% 的全球主要客户都选择了 LPKF 设备" 用于流程验证。 所以这大概包括: - Samsung Electronics / Electro-Mechanics - $INTC(收到一家领先芯片制造商的大单……在 2020 年初安装了第一套 LIDE 系统……现在又下单更多 LIDE 系统以开始量产) - SKC(Absolics) - $GLW、AGC、Schott。 - Nippon Electric Glass。 当然,这里说的是评估,所以实际放量时那个 80% 可能会更低。 再说一些我自己的前瞻市盈率计算: - 2027:大约 11-12.5 倍,2028 大约 7.8 倍,看起来非常有吸引力。 - 总现金:约 1000 万欧元,债务大约 300 万欧元。负债权益比:约 3.8% 资产负债表非常干净、轻资产,没有像 $SHMD 那样的稀释悬压。 市值约 3.62 亿美元,我的结论是:我认为上行空间很大,迟早会看到机构买入这个名字。 即便 80% 的玩家最终能设计出别的方案,只要有一部分转化,市值也会很有意义。 这可能几个月前还偏早,但玻璃核心路线图现在正像 CPO 一样加速。 披露:我确实有仓位。这只是我的想法。 X 上的人确实做了功课。

英文原文

People nonstop ask me about $LPKK / $LPK for my opinion Yes, I mentioned they're like a chokepoint for glass core substrates for LIDE (laser induced deep etching) way back when. Biggest known partner is $ONTO (LIDE with Onto metrology for glass core mass production). Then as for market share: "more than 80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment" for process validation. So that probably includes: - Samsung Electronics/Electro-Mechanics - $INTC (Receives a Major Order from a Leading Chip Manufacturer... installed a first LIDE system at the beginning of 2020... now ordered further LIDE systems to start volume production) - SKC (Absolics) - $GLW, AGC, Schott. - Nippon electric glass. Of course this is evaluation, so that 80% could be lower in actual ramp. As for some personal FWD P/E calculations: - 2027: ~11-12.5x and ~7.8x for 2028, which looks very compelling. - Total Cash: ~€10.0M, debt was around ~€3.0M. debt to equity: ~3.8% So very clean-asset light balance sheet, no dilution overhang like $SHMD. ~$362m MC, conclusion: great upside long imo, hard to see institutions not buying this name down the road. Even if the 80% of players managed to design another way, even a fraction would probably be very material to the MC. It was probably a bit early few months ago, but glass core roadmaps have been speeding up like CPO. Disclosure: I do have positions. This are just my thoughts. People on X did their homework.

在 X 上查看原推 ↗