$SHMD
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SHMD 有稀释悬压但位置值钱
@acemoney21 $SHMD 的稀释悬压令人担忧，但它的持仓本身是有内在价值的。
英文原文
@acemoney21 $SHMD had concerning dilution overhang, but their position is inherently valuable.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
现在很多人不停问我对 $LPKK / $LPK 的看法。 是的，我之前说过，它们就像 LIDE（激光诱导深蚀刻）里玻璃核心基板的卡点。 已知最大的合作伙伴是 $ONTO（LPKF 和 Onto 的计量检测合作，用于玻璃核心的大规模生产）。 至于市场份额："超过 80% 的全球主要客户都选择了 LPKF 设备" 用于流程验证。 所以这大概包括： - Samsung Electronics / Electro-Mechanics - $INTC（收到一家领先芯片制造商的大单……在 2020 年初安装了第一套 LIDE 系统……现在又下单更多 LIDE 系统以开始量产） - SKC（Absolics） - $GLW、AGC、Schott。 - Nippon Electric Glass。 当然，这里说的是评估，所以实际放量时那个 80% 可能会更低。 再说一些我自己的前瞻市盈率计算： - 2027：大约 11-12.5 倍，2028 大约 7.8 倍，看起来非常有吸引力。 - 总现金：约 1000 万欧元，债务大约 300 万欧元。负债权益比：约 3.8% 资产负债表非常干净、轻资产，没有像 $SHMD 那样的稀释悬压。 市值约 3.62 亿美元，我的结论是：我认为上行空间很大，迟早会看到机构买入这个名字。 即便 80% 的玩家最终能设计出别的方案，只要有一部分转化，市值也会很有意义。 这可能几个月前还偏早，但玻璃核心路线图现在正像 CPO 一样加速。 披露：我确实有仓位。这只是我的想法。 X 上的人确实做了功课。
英文原文
People nonstop ask me about $LPKK / $LPK for my opinion Yes, I mentioned they're like a chokepoint for glass core substrates for LIDE (laser induced deep etching) way back when. Biggest known partner is $ONTO (LIDE with Onto metrology for glass core mass production). Then as for market share: "more than 80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment" for process validation. So that probably includes: - Samsung Electronics/Electro-Mechanics - $INTC (Receives a Major Order from a Leading Chip Manufacturer... installed a first LIDE system at the beginning of 2020... now ordered further LIDE systems to start volume production) - SKC (Absolics) - $GLW, AGC, Schott. - Nippon electric glass. Of course this is evaluation, so that 80% could be lower in actual ramp. As for some personal FWD P/E calculations: - 2027: ~11-12.5x and ~7.8x for 2028, which looks very compelling. - Total Cash: ~€10.0M, debt was around ~€3.0M. debt to equity: ~3.8% So very clean-asset light balance sheet, no dilution overhang like $SHMD. ~$362m MC, conclusion: great upside long imo, hard to see institutions not buying this name down the road. Even if the 80% of players managed to design another way, even a fraction would probably be very material to the MC. It was probably a bit early few months ago, but glass core roadmaps have been speeding up like CPO. Disclosure: I do have positions. This are just my thoughts. People on X did their homework.
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SHMD 先把融资整理好
@Alin38 我个人不太喜欢 $SHMD 的稀释悬压。要是他们把融资理顺，我觉得它还是有潜力的。
英文原文
@Alin38 I personally wasn't a fan of dilution overhang with $SHMD. If they clean up financing, I think it has potential.
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SHMD虽处关键赛道，但因财务差及严重稀释风险，作者选择回避。
我认为很多 X 用户正确指出了 $SHMD 在玻璃基板等关键领域的角色。但这并不意味着它是一只好股票，因为财务状况不佳，我个人正在回避它（尽管我可能错了）。有 4660 万股新股与认股权证、可转换票据以及早期 1000 万欧元贷款挂钩。它还允许重新出售多达 9500 万股。我不认为他们目前微薄的收入能跑赢稀释效应。也许要等到 2028 年后期。
英文原文
I think a lot of people on X got $SHMD right in terms of their critical role for glass substrates/etc. But it doesn't mean it's a great stock due to financials and I'm personally avoiding it (could be wrong though). There's 46.6 million new shares tied to warrants, convertible notes, and an earlier €10M loan. It also permits the resale of up to 95 million shares. I don't think their minor revenues now will outpace dilution. Maybe later in 2028
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分析SHMD、COPX及UAMY的投资逻辑与潜力
我之前一直在研究 $SHMD，因为其客户据报包括 $AVGO。但我至今仍未理清做多该股的逻辑。 我将 $COPX 归类为铜板块。 $UAMY 是做多锑的绝佳标的，它是美国少数玩家之一。其 2.45 亿美元的独家供应合同对于战略储备而言规模巨大。
英文原文
I've been looking into $SHMD awhile back since one of their customers was reportedly $AVGO. But still can't wrap my head around taking a long position yet. I put $COPX up there as Copper. $UAMY is an amazing long for antimony one of the only US players. $245m sole source contract is huge too for stockpiles.
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分析SKC和SHMD在CPO及半导体供应链中的机会。
谢谢！虽然还有很多遗漏，但我仍在深入研究它们。 $SKC/Absolics（市值约25亿美元）作为共封装光学(CPO)领域的首发者，且美国政府深度参与，对于$NVDA、$AVGO/$MVRL而言颇具看点。 $SHMD（市值约2.5亿美元）也很有趣，因为$AVGO可能是其客户，且他们可能处于$INTC和三星的路线图之中。 但总体而言，市场提供了大量有趣的机会。
英文原文
Thanks! There's a lot I'm missing but still doing a lot of research into them. $SKC/Absolics (~$2.5B MC) was interesting for $NVDA, $AVGO / $MVRL CPO play as the first-to-market with US Government heavily involved, $SHMD (~$250m) was also pretty interesting too since $AVGO was a likely customer and they're probably on $INTC, Samsung roadmaps. But generally market presents a ton of interesting opportunities.
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研究$SHMD，认为其作为$AVGO客户且市值小，具备较大上涨潜力。
@reticulosaurus @retail_mourinho 我仍在研究 $SHMD，但一般来说，如果你拥有 $AVGO 作为客户且市值仅为 3 亿美元，那么上涨空间相当可观。我目前还没有任何明确的方向性观点，仍在深入调研中。
英文原文
@reticulosaurus @retail_mourinho I’m still researching $SHMD but generally if you have $AVGO as a customer and your marketcap is $300m then there’s quite a lot of upside. Don’t have any concrete directional opinions yet, I’m still looking into it
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AXTI和SHMD的瓶颈论点同样适用于上市公司。
@retail_mourinho 谢谢！希望你度过了一个愉快的新年。 目前很多讨论集中在私募市场，但关于 $AXTI 或 $SHMD 的瓶颈论点同样高度适用于上市公司。
英文原文
@retail_mourinho Thanks! Hope you’ve had a great new years Lot of the discussion in around private markets but the same thesis around bottlenecks with $AXTI or $SHMD is highly relevant to public companies
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计划周末深入研究SHMD，看好其受益于玻璃基板生产启动。
@pennycheck 谢谢，这非常有趣。本周末我将深入研究 $SHMD。如果玻璃基板（Glass Substrate）生产周期启动，他们将受益匪浅。
英文原文
@pennycheck Thanks, that's incredibly interesting. I'll take a deeper dive into $SHMD over the weekend. They would benefit a ton from the start of glass substrate production cycles.
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SHMD被视为玻璃基板领域的ASML，需深入研究。
@LucasFdez87 @pennycheck $SHMD 让我想起晶圆制造周期中的 $ASML，但玻璃基板领域也会出现类似情况。据悉，他们提供70%的基板生产设备，并很可能纳入英特尔、三星等公司的路线图。非常有趣，我需要深入研究一下。
英文原文
@LucasFdez87 @pennycheck $SHMD reminds me of $ASML for the Fab cycle, but there's going to be one for glass substrates. Apparently they provide 70% of the equipment for substrate production, and are likely part of Intel, Samsung, and other roadmaps. Very interesting, I need to look into it