$LRCX
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列出被点名的玻璃基板龙头链条
如果你感兴趣，这里是被点名的“领先”玻璃基板玩家： • $LPK —— TGV Equipment • $GLW —— 玻璃材料 • $ASGLY（5201 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $NIDGY（5214 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $LRCX —— 刻蚀设备 • $DSCSY（6146 T）—— 切割设备 • $SMHSF —— 键合系统 • $ONTO —— 检测工具 • $KLAC —— 检测工具 很有意思，像我年初就提到过的 LPK，当时市值只有大约 1.5 亿美元，如今却被 Trendforce 等机构点名成了关键玩家。
英文原文
“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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AMD 之外的主要受益者
@northyvt 我觉得除了 $AMD 之外，$TSM 和 OSAT / 先进封装合作伙伴会是主要受益者？ 也许 $AMAT、$LRCX、$KLAC、$ASML 以及其他公司也会受益？ $INTC 也有他们最近回购回来的自有工厂，所以也挺开心的。
英文原文
@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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BESI被纳入瓶颈标的，混合键合技术验证供应链重要性，但涨幅预期有限。
$BESIY / $BESI 在我的非正式瓶颈ETF里！不过我还需要补上 $LRCX、$AMAT 和 BESI 的新闻。这确实验证了混合键合(hybrid bonding)对先进封装的重要性。所以仅基于供应链重要性，就是很好的做多标的。但真不觉得它会像上面的其他股票那样涨300%，比如 $AAOI。
英文原文
$BESIY / $BESI was in my informal bottleneck ETF! Still need to catch up to the $LRCX, $AMAT and BESI news though. Does definitely validate how important hybrid bonding is to advanced packaging. So good long just based on supply chain importance. But don't really see it going up 300% like other names above like $AAOI.