$TOWA
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
说自己更愿意持有周期型设备股到 H2 2027
对我来说，大概会持有到 2027 年下半年开始。 我不喜欢长期持有像 $ASML、$AIXA、甚至 $TOWA 这种设备卖方。 垄断通常是例外，因为它们能保住估值，还能继续上行。 但大多数时候，它们主要吃的是周期的开始和中段，之后就会在下一轮周期前回落。现在通常是进入 GCS 爆发前的好时点。
英文原文
For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
-
承认 TOWA 很无聊，但走势稳
我之前就说过 $TOWA（6315）会很无聊…… 但它就是像 Hammond 一样，慢慢往上爬。 也许直接做 $EWY 的多头看涨期权会更刺激？ https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
英文原文
I did say $TOWA (6315) would be very boring... But it just keeps creeping up slowly over time like Hammond. Maybe going directly with $EWY longs calls would have been more exciting? https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
-
比较 Auros 和 Towa 的不同风险画像
@2victorspoils 我更喜欢 Auros，因为它们和 SK Hynix / Samsung 的 HBM4 hybrid bonding 路线相关，估值大约 2.8 亿美元。 日本那边的 Towa 就更像是一家无聊但有垄断属性的复利型公司。 这只是我目前发过的其中一些名字，后面我还会分享更多。
英文原文
@2victorspoils I liked Auros for higher upside since they’re part of SK Hynix/Samsung Hbm4 hybrid bonding related roadmaps at ~$280mz Over in Japan, Towa was a bit of a more boring but monopolistic compounder. As the ones I’ve posted about so far. There’s a lot more, I’ll share a few later
-
TOWA 或成 HBM4 上游受益者
是啊……我越看越觉得，市值约 13.4 亿美元的 $TOWA / $TOWCF（6315），可能会成为 SK 海力士、三星、$MU 在 HBM4 支出中的一个“捡漏”受益者。 它高度周期化，跟支出周期强相关。 但我们看到存储厂商的资本开支在全面上调。 这倒不是那种能 4 倍涨的标的…… 但我的猜测是，新一轮 HBM4 存储周期开始后，必须的资金流入激增会让它被显著重估。 尽管它在这轮新周期里似乎已经被大多数人忘了，但它在压缩建模流程上有垄断地位。 混合键合虽然只是去掉了一个步骤，但仍然需要 Towa（垄断企业往往会拿到更高溢价）。 我也不觉得这轮周期和上一轮一样，因为最近存储公司赚钱的速度实在太夸张了？ 只是我的想法，但如果我的判断没错……等大家都在建 HBM4 产线时，它应该会在 11 日周一（东京时间）的财报里体现出来？
英文原文
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?
-
测试/良率链条普遍利多
我帮你盯着这件事（测试/良率篇）： $VIAV 和 $FORM 的财报：极度看多 这意味着什么？ 像 $ONTO / $CAMT 这样的名字会起飞。再加上 $TOWA（6315），因为有迹象显示存储产量正在激进爬坡。 像 Msscorps / $KEYS 这样的名字也会起飞。 更广泛来看，存储和光学生态的上游良率、测试、验证和检测都会大幅受益。而且如果它们正在扩产，这对 $COHR、$FN、$LITE 等也都是领先指标。 对 $VIAV： -> 4.068 亿美元 vs. 3.93 亿美元（超预期）同比增长 42.8%。 -> 每股收益 0.27 美元 vs. 0.2-0.24 美元 指引为 4.27 亿至 4.37 亿美元，显示加速。 对 $FORM： -> 2.26 亿美元，按年增长 32%，每股收益 0.56 美元 vs. 0.45 美元 -> 毛利率大幅提升到 49%（这说明有定价权）。 -> 指引为每股收益 0.61 美元，中值营收约 2.4 亿美元。 “高带宽存储（HBM）需求创纪录，以及代工和逻辑网络应用更强劲” 基本上就是更小的良率/测试生态整体都在起飞。BRRR。
英文原文
Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
-
上游设备商TOWA受益于三大存储厂HBM4资本支出扩张，CPO封装尚未量产需观察ASX等信号，整体由超大规模数据中心资本支出驱动。
$TOWA最大的信号来自SK Hynix、Micron和Samsung，因为这是上游...三大厂商增加了资本支出预测+建设HBM4，所以资本支出确实会流向Towa。 MSSCORP更微妙。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的，还没到量产的阶段...你可能需要关注$ASX和其他信号。 但它们都主要从超大规模数据中心资本支出作为总的框架来获得推导，今天这个框架基本是看涨的。
英文原文
$TOWA biggest signal is SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung since this is upstream... and the big 3 increased capex projections + building out HMB4 so that capex does flow to Towa. MSSCORP more nuanced. This is for CPO, which is not volume ramped yet... You'd probably want to look at like $ASX and other signals. But they all get derived mainly from hyperscaler capex as an overarching umbrella, which was largely bullish today.
-
TOWA 仍是必须持有
@johndoestocks 问得好，$TOWA 还是必须持有，所以不是问题。 即便到了本世纪末的 HBM5、采用 hybrid bonding，它们也许只是丢掉流程中的一个步骤，但仍然会是关键卡点。
英文原文
@johndoestocks Good question, $TOWA is still a must have so not a concern. Even with hybrid bonding end of decade hbm5, they might just lose one step of the process but remain a critical chokepoint