· 供应链分析
是啊……我越看越觉得，市值约 13.4 亿美元的 $TOWA / $TOWCF（6315），可能会成为 SK 海力士、三星、$MU 在 HBM4 支出中的一个“捡漏”受益者。 它高度周期化，跟支出周期强相关。 但我们看到存储厂商的资本开支在全面上调。 这倒不是那种能 4 倍涨的标的…… 但我的猜测是，新一轮 HBM4 存储周期开始后，必须的资金流入激增会让它被显著重估。 尽管它在这轮新周期里似乎已经被大多数人忘了，但它在压缩建模流程上有垄断地位。 混合键合虽然只是去掉了一个步骤，但仍然需要 Towa（垄断企业往往会拿到更高溢价）。 我也不觉得这轮周期和上一轮一样，因为最近存储公司赚钱的速度实在太夸张了？ 只是我的想法，但如果我的判断没错……等大家都在建 HBM4 产线时，它应该会在 11 日周一（东京时间）的财报里体现出来？
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?