· 个股论点
个人而言，我并不看好！这并非因为估值（即使打折后）问题，主要是机会成本，因为国防（如无人机）以及从存储到材料的AI供应链都有太多顺风因素。 我认为未来十年很难再看到像今年这样的一年，随机商品材料如磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)竟成为AI/光子学关键材料，且总地址市场(TAM)增长4000%+。 我认为如果分析师能比其他人更早识别出这些机会，这就好比现代淘金热。 话虽如此，像$ADBE、$CRM等公司可能会看到20%的反弹（你可以用期权来加杠杆），但很难逆趋势而行，这也不是我的菜。
Personally, not really! It’s not due to valuations (even if discounted) but mainly opportunity cost since there’s so many tailwinds with defense like drones as well as AI supply chains from memory to materials. I don’t think we’ll see another year like this in a decade where random commodity materials like Indium Phopshide end up becoming critical for AI/photonics and TAM goes up 4000%+. I think if analysts are able to identify them before others due, it’s like the modern gold rush. That being said sure companies like $ADBE, $CRM and others might see a 20% rebound (and you can play options for leverage) but harder to fight the trend + not my cup of tea.