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只为现场调研 Harmonic Drive 和 Towa 来日本
我来日本只为了对 Harmonic Drive（6324）和 Towa（6315）做第一手尽调。 不太确定其他人晚上都在干什么…… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
英文原文
I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315). Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
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因为会影响真实生活，所以更认真研究 Towa
嗯，因为我知道这会影响现实中别人的生活，所以哪怕只是短期时间尺度，如果我判断错了，我也会真的很难受。 所以我会拼尽全力做研究，确保自己有足够把握。 不是所有事都会按我想的走，但我仍然坚信 TOWA 在今年下半年业绩会增长。 而且我觉得市场误解了这次财报，所以后面大概率会反弹。
英文原文
うん、現実の人たちの生活に影響が出るってわかってるから、たとえ短期的なスパンであっても、自分の考えが間違っていると本当に辛いんだ。 だから、間違いないって確信できるくらい、全力でリサーチするようにしてる。 全てが思い通りにいくわけじゃないけど、それでも今年の下半期に向けてTOWAの業績は伸びると確信してるよ。 それに、市場は今回の決算を誤解してると思うから、たぶんここから持ち直すんじゃないかな。
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Towa 业绩下跌是短期误判的教训
哎，Towa（6315）财报后跌了 20%。 这也是我学到的一个教训：我确实会在某些想法上犯错，尤其是短期时间尺度。 $NBIS 在去年 12 月 / 1 月的时候也是一样…… 但等到半年后，当 thesis 有足够时间兑现时，它已经涨了三位数。 https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
英文原文
Ouch, Towa (6315) down 20% on earnings. Good lesson learned that I do get some ideas wrong. Especially on short term timeframes. Same thing with $NBIS back in Dec/Jan… But it is up triple digits now half a year later when there’s enough time for a thesis to play out. https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
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Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.