北京时间 2026-07-30 14:52:06 · 供应链分析

FORM财报显示CPO业务加速，处于早期爆发前夜，看好硅光子产业链。

中文翻译

以下是 $FORM 财报电话会议中关于共封装光学(CPO)的一些有趣要点：由于“共封装光学(CPO)的加速增长”，系统收入几乎翻倍。 2026年Q1：“我们现在预计2026年CPO收入将达到1000万至2000万美元区间的高位。” 2026年Q2（当前）：“预计第三季度末将超过该区间，全年整体将显著超过2000万美元水平。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项[CPO]业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO采用前景。我们是否预期时间表会略微提前？答：“我想说的是短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示时间表没有显著提前。引用生产基础设施（不仅是研发）用于： - 今年晚些计划量产的CPO芯片日益增长的出货量 + 用于扩展和扩展交换机的测试插入。 - 似乎CPO部分通过 $TSM 的 COUPE 流程 [可能对应 $NVDA 的CPO产品] - “CPO部分确实通过那10%的客户流向。” 因此，鉴于管理层提到CPO芯片出货量增长，测试环节正在爬坡。 “我们CPO业务的近期快速增长令人兴奋，我们认为这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中广泛采用的非常早期阶段。” 简而言之：从根本上说，CPO作为一个主题仍处于非常早期阶段，但由于它现在开始出现在财报中，应该很快就会爆发（设备/测试玩家通常会在光引擎/激光器出货量爬坡之前先出现）。个人而言，一旦所有去杠杆过程停止，我认为市场将开始更加关注这一点。

英文原文

Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.

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