个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 2 / 45 页
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SIVE称需求远超供应且未来60%毛利率，作者认为极度看多。
天啊，这是我目前从 $SIVE 听到的最看多的内容。 来自财报电话会记录： “当需求远远超过供应时，我们不看竞争对手”（字面意思是他们生产的任何东西都会被买走）。 同时还有：“我们认为未来毛利率为60%”（极其……）
英文原文
Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly https://t.co/6u3LSTQofy
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极度看多SIVE，因前瞻增长77%、JBL放量确认和多个量产启动。
回复 @DeJeff48985：极度看多 $SIVE。 我对自己持有名字的财报一向非常直白诚实。 我们从整个公司管线中看到了单季度77%的前瞻增长信号。 $JBL 放量确认。 然后还有多个量产爬坡开始……
英文原文
@DeJeff48985 Extremely bullish on $SIVE. I’m very brutally honest when it comes to earnings reports on the names I own. We got 77% forward growth indications from the entire company’s pipelines… over a single quarter. $JBL ramp confirmation. Then multiple volume ramp production starts
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Hammond变压器多头两个月上涨83%，需求可见度高。
$HPS.A 接近两个月时间框架。 “天上的变压器”自那以后上涨83.3%。大黄蜂 go brrr？ 但说真的，变压器需求可见度非常高，积压订单扎实，干式变压器市场份额高。 不算抛物线式上涨，但看起来是一个有吸引力的复利标的。
英文原文
$HPS.A is close is to a 2M timeframe. Transformers in the Sky are up 83.3% since. Bumblebee go brrr? But in all reality, transformers demand visibility is very high, solid backlog, high market share (of dry). Not exactly parabolic, but looks like a compelling compounder. https://t.co/bNGwjqfZ4M
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即使AAOI已130亿市值，因激光瓶颈和2027收入爬坡更看多。
考虑到最近所有激光瓶颈，我实际上比 $AAOI 在20亿美元或60亿美元市值时，更看好现在130亿美元市值的 $AAOI。 我也认为市场错过了关于它可能与 $NVDA 或 $AMD 签订长期供应协议的分析师注释。 如果他们预测2027年上半年4.71亿美元……那是荒谬的爬坡。 当然，6亿美元 ATM 是短期压制。 只是等待时间的问题？因为这更多是能否跟上需求。 所以问题更多是他们能生产多少。 它大概是我现在持有的、最喜欢的美国本土光子学多头。
英文原文
I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp. But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang. Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand… So more of a matter of how much they can make. Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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认为XFAB在15亿美元市值很有吸引力，是美国唯一高量SiC代工厂。
我真心认为 $XFAB 在15亿美元市值非常有吸引力，尽管最近波动很大。 根据 NIST 文件，它们是美国唯一的高量 SiC 代工厂。 这让它们成为极其“关键的基础设施”……这是美国政府原话。 而且它们是第一个综合……
英文原文
I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility. Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America. Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov. And they’re the first comprehensive https://t.co/4OGXctOv5h
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感谢路透和彭博中性报道XFAB，但强调800VDC、NVDA/NOK评估和CHIPS催化。
感谢路透和彭博今天对 $XFAB 更中性的报道。 不过如果能更多聚焦我提出的结构性 thesis 会更好…… 围绕 800VDC 功率半导体的 $NVDA 敞口，以及正在进行的 $NVDA / $NOK 光子学评估。 以及 CHIPS Act 半导体主权作为近期催化。 而不是围绕新型信息综合带来的波动。 你知道的，我花很多时间看监管文件，寻找市场错过的有吸引力东西。
英文原文
Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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XFAB兼具光子学和功率半导体，EU CHIPS Act 2是催化。
$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）是一个有趣的多头想法，市值12.8亿美元，我已经建仓。 考虑到 EU CHIPS Act 2 今天是欧洲光子学玩家的催化。 > 通过 $NVTS + $POWI，拥有 $NVDA 推动下的 800VDC 功率半导体敞口。 > 硅光子 / CPO……
英文原文
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O
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指出自己建仓的是XFAB，兼具Nvidia功率半导体和光子学敞口。
这就是我个人喜欢并持仓的公司。 绝对不是 $DPZ。 但某种程度上让我想起 Soitec。 功率半导体 / SiPH 两边都对 Nvidia 生态有敞口。 光子学方面正在通过 Nvidia 评估。功率半导体敞口通过 NVTS 和 POWI，约1.29倍市净率，欧盟 CHIPS Act 受益者。美国 CHIPS Act 资助也在进行中。 约12.8亿美元市值，应该会受益于今天作为催化的 EU CHIPS Act 第二轮。
英文原文
This was the company i personally liked + have positions in. Definitely not $DPZ. But kinda me of Soitec in a way. Power semi / SiPH exposure both to Nvidia ecosystems. Photonics side eval through Nvidia right now. Power semi exposure through NVtS and powl, ~1.29 p/b, EU chips act grantee. US chips act grant ongoing. ~$1.28B MC, should be beneficiary of eu chips act round 2 today as a catalyst
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认为SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO敞口，核心激光供应商多已数百亿美元估值。
$SIVE 是我看来最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口股票。 尽管有波动。 在多年后下一次光子学架构转变之前，你可能不会再找到这样的东西。 在核心激光供应商中，它们都已经是数百亿美元级别？ $AAOI = 150亿美元 Furukawa……
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa https://t.co/bPCZdDKXhZ
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用私有CPO玩家估值论证SIVE作为上游激光瓶颈应获得更高估值。
给试图做 $SIVE 估值分析的人： Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 今天大概估值约40亿到150亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约26亿美元，而且很可能是它们所有人的上游激光供应商。 我甚至还没把 Poet、TFLN 相关的 Hyperlight/Lightium，或 Jabil 和其他未披露可插拔玩家纳入估值分析。 也没包括 CHIPS Act 合同、Apple/Nokia 关系，或 Aeva 等人形/物理 AI 业务。 散户对私募市场不太熟悉……但这些公司都被视为前沿 CPO 玩家，并且估值和规模都在迅速增长。 所以我预计 $SIVE 应该获得类似甚至更高估值，因为它有激光瓶颈溢价。尤其是在它通过并购扩展 TAM 和收入之后。 下个月 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 新资金流入会随时间缩小差距。 但 NASDAQ 上市可能才是真正给 Sivers 溢价的因素。
英文原文
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
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称SIVE仍极早，机构被动流入和NASDAQ上市将带来更多美国机构。
你听了吗，朋友？ $SIVE 还极其早期。 我们下周将首次看到大量机构流入（BlackRock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再叠加很快的 NASDAQ 上市，以及更多美国机构进入。 这就是处在 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类名字最早期时的感觉。 而且现在仍处在主要机构资本尚未进入流通盘、CPO 超级周期尚未爬坡之前。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
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列出SIVE受益于NASDAQ指数纳入、BlackRock/Vanguard被动买入、美国政府支持等新事件。
$SIVE 是这个周末全新事件的最大受益者： 1. Sivers 新纳入 NASDAQ 指数（OMX Stockholm）： Vanguard 和 BlackRock 都是新的被动资金流入。 加上下一周的 MSCI，对现有流通盘将有约6000万美元以上纯买入压力。 2. 美国政府和瑞典签署联合技术合作协议。 $SIVE 是少数 CHIPS Act 受益者之一，尤其是在瑞典。 如果你不记得，它们上周还获得了另一笔660万美元 CHIPS Act 奖励。 这让 $SIVE 得到美国政府大力支持，并对其至关重要。 简而言之：来自 BlackRock/Vanguard 这类最大美国机构的新被动资金流入，叠加美国政府支持。 这对基本面（来自五角大楼供应链的收入/TAM）和 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 流入都利好。 极度看多。
英文原文
$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.
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称不会卖SIVE，认为是代际级多头，受益于客户、TAM、Ayar护城河、CHIPS和指数流入。
我一股 $SIVE 都不会卖。 我个人认为这是代际级多头，因为它已经进入了这么多超大云厂商供应商体系。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔和 CPO 的极端 TAM 扩张预测。 如果你到现在还没读 $JBL 炉边谈话记录，它已经验证了需求和时间线；或者 Ayar 从网站上移除 Lumentum 和 Macom 作为激光供应商，验证了护城河；或者 CHIPS Act 资金验证了技术重要性；或者管理层在我看来字面上做对了所有事情，通过 NASDAQ 上市转向并购重点，验证前瞻增长愿景。 当前估值下，上行太有吸引力。 机构也几乎还没进入……而下个月我们将看到来自 Nasdaq、BlackRock、MSCI 指数的数千万美元长期被动新资金流入。
英文原文
I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.
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AAOI拥有800G/1.6T端到端制造规模，美国制造和税收抵免应带来溢价。
是的，$AAOI 拥有 800G/1.6T 光收发器的端到端制造规模，而现在超大云厂商会买下 $AAOI 或光学玩家能生产的任何东西。 它们试图全部在美国完成，并获得税收抵免（例如德州），这应该给它溢价。 只是6亿美元稀释影响近期价格有点烦。
英文原文
Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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估算SIVE下月约6450万美元机构纯买盘，若空头回补还会增加。
回复 @knedoycap：$SIVE 有约4700万美元来自 MSCI 指数，另有约1500-2000万美元来自新的 NASDAQ Stockholm 指数纳入。 所以下个月大约有6450万美元纯机构买入压力。考虑到约17%的自由流通股被做空，如果他们回补，也会增加买盘压力。
英文原文
@knedoycap There's around ~$47M from MSCI index for $SIVE. And ~$15-20M from the new NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion. So ~$64.5M of pure institutional buying pressure next month. Given ~17% of FF is shorted too, add that to buying pressure if they cover.
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NASDAQ将SIVE纳入Stockholm指数，预计带来1500-2000万美元被动流入。
哇，NASDAQ 刚把 $SIVE 加入其 Stockholm 指数。 预计这会带来约1500-2000万美元被动流入，严格 ETF-only 大约50万美元。 我们能够看到大量机构资金流入 Sivers，因为这还叠加在月底 MSCI 指数纳入之上。
英文原文
Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index. This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja
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认为FOCI不会成为500亿公司，但可因光组件/FAU规模化结构性重估。
回复 @_juicebox99_：我不认为 FOCI 会成为500亿美元以上的公司。 它们专注于一件事，比如为 $TSM / $NVDA 做光组件 + FAU，并规模化生产。所以这很可能驱动与市值相关的结构性重估。 这和美国公司通过 TAM 扩张成为1000亿美元以上公司的模式不太一样。
英文原文
@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.
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硅谷逻辑重视融资后能否变成千亿美元公司，SIVE有完美设置。
欢迎来到硅谷，瑞典。 重点更多是你能用资金做什么，以及能否把市场投资转化为1000亿美元以上公司。 不是你2024年拉进来多少收入。 $SIVE 现在具备完美设置，我认为它们很可能完成正确收购，快速扩张收入。
英文原文
Welcome to Silicon Valley, Sweden. It's moreso what you can do with the funding and if you can turn that market investment into $100B+. Not about what revenue you pulled in from 2024. $SIVE has the perfect setup right now, and I think it's likely they can pull off the right acquisitions to speedrun revenue expansion.
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比较AAOI与SIVE：前者制造规模，后者独特IP和CPO供应商渗透。
$AAOI 更偏纯制造规模，我极度看多它们。 所以在我看来，它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此对收入爬坡极其看多。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要 CPO 超大云供应商似乎都使用它们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 甚至 $JBL 也用 Sivers 做出突破性的 1.6T LRO 护城河。 Sivers 的上限很高，未来也总能像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样用资本开支做垂直整合。 但它们当前主要重点应该是创造尽可能大的 IP 护城河，并把制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后也总能垂直整合组装和激光晶圆厂。 我喜欢它们两个，但原因不同。
英文原文
$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
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高信念SIVE：伯克利+LITE团队、22%博士、CHIPS和潜在客户验证IP护城河。
我之前说过，我对 $SIVE 有高信念。 我相信它们来自 UC Berkeley + $LITE 的高管团队知道该收购什么 IP。因为它们从一开始就与 Ayar 等公司合作。 另外，公司22%的员工是博士也有帮助，整个团队都很强。 CHIPS Act，以及从 $NOK 到 $AAPL 的这些潜在合作，也给它们建立的 IP 护城河带来大量可信度。 它们之前只是缺资金，直到最近市场开始关注 Sivers。但我非常想看看它们从这里能做什么。
英文原文
I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.
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阐述SIVE如何成为下一个800亿美元LITE：CPO/1.6T激光kingmaker并通过并购扩展TAM。
为了让 $SIVE 成为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE： Sivers 是当前 CPO 和 1.6T 光学转型中的激光 kingmaker。 它们基本上向 CPO 领域的领先玩家供应激光。 从可能的 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他 CPO 玩家开始，在这些公司变大之前就合作。 现在又有 $JBL 这样的1.6T LRO 大玩家，以及更多可插拔产品测试/认证正在进行。 它们终于解决了 Catch-22 问题，并获得市场关注，可以在 NASDAQ 上市后（或现在通过股权）完成基础性 CPO 相关 IP 的下游收购。 并尽可能从激光源向以下方向扩展收入： -> 光引擎/ELS 价值。 -> 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 用2年从20亿美元到800亿美元估值一样。 但不同的是，Sivers 正在 CPO 超级周期中做这件事，这是光子学史上最快的 TAM 扩张。 我关注的是它们能否完成这种大卫对歌利亚式的转变，追赶 $LITE。 这比当前发生的小市值百分比回报更让我在意。
英文原文
For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
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认为INTC/RKLB/NBIS到2029仍会存在，可让已有仓位复利。
回复 @realstockfox：是的，我很确定 $INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到2029年还会存在…… 不需要不断进入新的/不同的美国仓位，只要让你已有的仓位随时间复利即可。
英文原文
@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.
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解释SIVE融资是美国上市流动性需求，资金用于光子学TAM/收入扩张并购。
等你意识到这实际上是美国上市/流通盘所需的 NASDAQ 流动性。 而所得资金预计会用于 $SIVE 并购（他们聘请了2名并购相关董事）。 用于光子学 TAM/收入扩张。 不仅如此，它们过去合作过的小公司，从 Celestial 到 Lightmatter，要么被 Marvell 吞并，要么成为独立的数十亿美元公司。 所以 Sivers 最知道在最早期该收购什么。 这就是为什么我称 $SIVE 为 CPO 的 Kingmaker。 这事实上对 Sivers 极度看多。
英文原文
Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.
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RKLB获得9000万美元美国太空军合同，收入不大但叙事利好。
$RKLB 获得9000万美元美国太空军合同。 收入不算多，但在美国太空建设背景下，含义和叙事会 go brrr。 在 SpaceX IPO 之前看到这个也很有趣。
英文原文
$RKLB $90M US Space Force contract. Not much revenue, but implication/narratives go brrr with the US space buildup. Fun to see before the SpaceX IPO as well. https://t.co/jamx5EHans
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持有RDDT，认为它是少数高盈利增长公司但市场尚未反映。
回复 @XtineFang：我确实有 $RDDT！它们是少数极其盈利的成长公司之一。 只是很遗憾，到目前为止市场价格还没有真正反映这一点。
英文原文
@XtineFang I do have $RDDT! They’re one of the few extremely profitable growth companies out there. Just sadly hasn’t really reflected in market price so far.
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认为RDDT财报后估值不合理，盈利高增长却被市场忽视。
市场上有些事情不太合理。 $RDDT 是财报后的完美例子。 它是目前最赚钱且高增长的名字之一…… 但如果它和软件有关，或者没有烧掉1万亿美元以上 AI 资本开支，市场就不关心？
英文原文
There's some things in the market that don't make much sense. $RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings. One of the most profitable names right now with high growth... But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care? https://t.co/uWJ55OuZMO
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列出SIVE近期催化：MSCI流入、CHIPS资金、Jabil放量、Apple线索、M&A董事、NASDAQ上市。
瑞典，你听了吗？ > $SIVE MSCI 纳入 + 结构性流入 > 660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金 > Jabil 1.6T 极端需求、放量爬坡 > Apple 下一代 Watch 更新可能使用 Sivers > 2名与并购相关的新董事 > Nasdaq 上市将至 故事变得越来越好。
英文原文
Did you listen Sweden? > $SIVE MSCI Listing + structural inflow > $6.6M CHIPS act funding > Jabil 1.6T extreme demand, volume ramp > Apple next-gen Watch refresh likely using Sivers > 2 new board members related to M&A > Nasdaq listing inc The story keeps getting better. https://t.co/mlKM9WcIOf
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解释为何关注SIVE并购：早期客户后来成长为数十亿美元公司，Sivers懂得收购光学IP。
如果人们还没意识到为什么我如此关注 $SIVE 的并购。 Sivers 的潜在客户曾经是： Lightmatter 很小时 -> 成为40亿美元以上公司。 Lightelligence 很小时 -> 成为100亿美元以上公司。 Ayar 很小时 -> 现在由 $NVDA、$AMD 等资助。 Celestial 很小时 -> 被 $MRVL 收购并成为其增长向量。独立估值可能会超过100亿美元。 我极其确定 Sivers 知道该收购什么光学 IP。 它们只是卡在 Catch-22 中，原本缺少资金，尽管拥有最有价值的激光瓶颈之一。 未来 NASDAQ 上市和近期增长，现在解锁了下游 IP 收购潜力。
英文原文
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
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SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
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希望SIVE成为下一个LITE，而不是被MRVL/JBL收购。
回复 @osilayer8：不是，我是在为 $SIVE 成为下一个 $LITE 加油。 我建仓不是为了让 Sivers 被 $MRVL 或 $JBL 收购。 考虑到光子学需求，我也真的不认为 NASDAQ 上市后的融资会成为问题。 只是等待游戏。
英文原文
@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.
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新M&A董事可推动Sivers收购光学IP并提升收入。
回复 @jaddaplayer： > 新并购董事 > Sivers 买入更多光学 IP > 收入 go brr
英文原文
@jaddaplayer > New M&A board members > Sivers buys more optical IP > Revenue goes brr
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Sivers提名并购背景董事，战略意图明确指向CPO超级周期下的快速扩张路径。
$SIVE今天提名了两位新的董事会成员。这非常具有深意，因为这两位新成员都有并购背景，分别来自： -> 爱立信并购负责人 / Verdane顾问，专注于并购 / 德意志银行 -> HMS首席财务官 / Axholmen和Celerant Consulting，涉及并购/战略 $SIVE的看涨逻辑是从激光源开始： 然后通过IP收购快速扩展TAM至可插拔器件/共封装光学(CPO)产品线，并利用$FN等合作方进行最终组装以保持轻资本支出。 如果他们想在CPO/光子学超级周期中获取更多整体收入，可以参考$LITE的玩法。 因此，提名两位专注并购的人是一个健康指标，说明他们正走在正确的轨道上。 唯一需要考虑的是，在NASDAQ上市后通过私募或可转债向美国机构进行融资。 因为瑞典市场流动性仍然非常薄弱，Sivers可以通过更好的条款进行更大的收购... 在美国新流动性重新定价市值/股价之后。（Sivers目前有那笔过桥融资） 一旦Sivers满足一些美国机构的上市要求，更大的美国机构可能也有兴趣建立新的重大$SIVE仓位。
英文原文
$SIVE is nominating two new board members today. It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from: -> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank. -> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy. The bull case with $SIVE was to start from the laser source: Then speedrun TAM expansion down the pluggable/CPO stack through IP acquisitions, and use $FN + others for final assembly to keep things capex light. If they want to capture more overall revenue during the CPO/Photonics supercycle, following the $LITE playbook. So, it's a healthy indicator they're heading down the right track nominating two M&A focused people. Only idea to float out is to capital raise with private placement or convertibles with US institutions after NASDAQ listing. Since Swedish markets are still very thin and Sivers can get better terms for larger acquisitions... after new US liquidity reprices of MC/shares on listing. (Sivers has that recent bridge round in the meantime) Larger US institutions are likely interested in entering new very material $SIVE positions as well once Sivers passes some US institutions listing mandates.
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TASC 2340可能是高端Apple Watch新供应商。
5亿美元市值的 $AAPL 供应商，很可能是新款高端 Apple Watch 的主要来源： 如果有人想看或好奇，TASC（2340）。我大概会跳过，但这里可能有些有趣东西。
英文原文
$500m $AAPL supplier likely primary source for their new high end apple watches: TASC (2340) if people wanted to take a look or were curious. I'm prob passing, but could be something interesting here https://t.co/lE6iyswXyT
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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预计SIVE 2027年成百亿美元公司，若按LITE路径未来几年甚至有60倍可能。
我个人认为 $SIVE 到2027年会成为100亿美元以上公司，也就是8-10倍。 $LITE 确实在2年内从28亿美元涨到800亿美元，所以如果天时地利，未来几年60倍也并非不可能。 它们正在走正确道路。 > $LITE / UC Berkeley 高管运营公司。 > 可能有更多美国光子学相关高管进入董事会。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 可能通过美国机构私募融资。 > 用这些资金做下游 IP 收购。 > 销售完整可插拔收发器/ELS 来扩展 TAM。 > 每个超大云厂商现在似乎都能映射到 Sivers，只是 CPO 还没放量。 它们会像 $LITE 当年从激光源开始那样，在过程中捕获更多收入扩张。
英文原文
I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x. $LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align. They're going down the right path. > $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company. > Likely more US executive photonics related board members. > NASDAQ listing > Likely US institution private placement for funding > use that for downstream IP acquisition. > sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion > every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up. They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.
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SIVE纳入MSCI并获得660万美元CHIPS资金，政府托底关键瓶颈。
$SIVE 刚被纳入 MSCI，这意味着两周内可能又有数千万美元买盘压力。 此外还有新的660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金进入，这是很棒的资本注入。 最大的是这项 CHIPS Act 进展带来的收入含义，无论它们正在做什么黑魔法。政府把 Sivers 作为关键 chokepoint 托底，是锦上添花。 我个人认为它还会涨很多。
英文原文
$SIVE just got MSCI inclusion and that's another likely tens of millions buying pressure in 2 weeks. Then there's new $6.6M CHIPS ACT funding coming in, which is an amazing capital injection. The largest thing is revenue implications from this CHIPS ACT development, whatever black magic they're working on. Gov backstopping Sivers as a critical chokepoint is a cherry on top. I personally think it's going much higher.
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反驳用 SpaceX 高增长去硬套离谱估值
这和我跟 $VCX 争论时遇到的论点一样：有人说因为 SpaceX 增长很快，所以应该值 30 万亿美元，而 $META 才 1.4 万亿美元。 你完全可以通过 Hiive 或其他方式买入，而不是一边付 5 倍溢价，一边还要承受 20 亿美元的稀释，在这么小的 NAV 上继续被摊薄。
英文原文
This is the same at argument I got with $VCX with people telling me SpaceX should trade at $30T because of how fast they’re growing while $META trades at $1.4T. You can just buy it Hiive or other methods without paying 5X premiums… on top of getting diluted $2B off such a small NAV
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质疑 Figure 的估值能否对标更大的独角兽
Unitree 这家领先的人形机器人公司估值 60 亿美元就要 IPO，你却说 Figure 大概值 2000 亿美元，笑死。
英文原文
@NicholasBardy Unitree, the leading humanoid maker, is IPOing at $6B valuation and you’re saying Figure is probably worth $200B lol
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批评高估值浮筹和持续稀释
@AlanSmith838 我真不明白，为什么有人会在这个估值上买这种“更傻的人接盘”式的庞氏浮筹。 同时还有 20 亿美元的缓慢稀释。 这类基金的想法也许是好的，老板们可能起初也有善意。 但现在它已经完全跑偏了。
英文原文
@AlanSmith838 I genuinely don't understand why people would just buy a greater fools theory pyramid scheme float at this valuation. While there's $2B slow drip dilution. The idea of funds like these are good. Maybe the owners had good intention. But right now it's driven way off course.
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指出 BOT 的 NAV 与股价严重脱节
$BOT 是最明显的红旗。 NAV 是每股 7.34 美元，而现在股价是 37.92 美元。 你基本上是在按 2000 亿美元以上的估值买 Figure，而它自己只值 390 亿美元。 买这个公司，本质上是在买别人的浮筹博弈，而不是买成长或基本面。 更糟的是，还有 20 亿美元的稀释在继续发生，等于是大家被一路稀释到看不见。 很多基金经理会私信像我这样的意见领袖，但现实里： 散户看起来就是退出流动性。
英文原文
$BOT is the biggest red flag. NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92. You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B. Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail. Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals. To make matters worse: There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion. I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality: Retail just looks like exit liquidity.
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只为现场调研 Harmonic Drive 和 Towa 来日本
我来日本只为了对 Harmonic Drive（6324）和 Towa（6315）做第一手尽调。 不太确定其他人晚上都在干什么…… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
英文原文
I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315). Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
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用 CRCL 算一笔很简单的收益
@Partfortynineg1 $54 x 2 =$108 with $CRCL https://t.co/2LaN9mX322
英文原文
@Partfortynineg1 $54 x 2 =$108 with $CRCL https://t.co/2LaN9mX322
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把早期仓位切换到 CPO 名字里
@ajmotleyfool 没有，我把今年早些时候的一些持仓，最近都换进了像 Foci、Shunsin、$SIVE 这类 CPO 名字。
英文原文
@ajmotleyfool Nope, I've pivoted a lot of the earlier players in the year into CPO names like Foci, Shunsin, $SIVE recently.
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懊恼自己看对了 MXL 却没买
我太气了……为什么我明明认定 $MXL 是一个很好的具体机会。 结果自己却没去做多？ 我一提它就直接涨了 300%。 https://t.co/IVFqYC8GfG
英文原文
I’m so mad… why do I identify $MXL as a great opportunity in specific. Then not go long? Just straight up 300% after I call it out. https://t.co/IVFqYC8GfG
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认为只要 thesis 不破，公司就能继续成长
我不确定大家有没有意识到，只要一个 thesis 没有彻底被证伪，像 $NBIS 这种公司就可以继续成长。 看看过去 15 年的 $AMZN 或 $GOOGL 就知道。 如果你老是“减仓”，往往会先触发税负。很多回撤其实还没大到抵消你已经交掉的税。 等所谓“50% 暴跌”真的发生时，价格可能早就已经复利了几百甚至几千个百分点。 如果你需要花钱，只要仓位到了七位数、八位数甚至九位数，你完全可以借着这些资产去融资，同时继续让它们升值。 NFA，只是我个人观点。你们自己随意，但这非常、非常取决于你选的公司。 像 $IREN 这种垃圾就没法这么做。不过我确实认为 $NBIS 已经站在成为下一个 hyperscaler 的位置上了。
英文原文
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
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看多FOCI，认为市场低估CPO瓶颈前景，类似去年AXTI。
@RayT168 对FOCI非常有信心，市场目前正在低估未来的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈，就像去年的$AXTI一样。
英文原文
@RayT168 Pretty high conviction in FOCI, markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks right now just like $AXTI last year
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看好Harmonic Drive，但更倾向用资本支持西方供应链而非中国。
我确实看好 Harmonic Drive (6324) 作为西方谐波减速器领域的领导者，估值约 42 亿美元。在机器人/人形机器人的物料清单价值中占非常大比重。我实际上更看好 Leader Drive（因为大规模生产更便宜，覆盖更多零件）。也许三花(Sanhua)会是 $TSLA Optimus 的供应商。但用我的资本，我更偏好支持西方供应链而非中国供应链。这不仅仅是赚市场的钱，还关乎你想达成什么目标（帮助推进美国供应链和机器人行业领导者）。
英文原文
I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC. Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value. I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus. But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China. It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).