个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2479 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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无视宏观波动，因AI资本支出强劲且需求失衡，坚持做多AI核心标的。
宏观环境显然在过去几个月削减了高贝塔AI的估值。但我试图专注于基本面。 如果你好奇我的看法： 我们看到了创纪录的长期协议(LTA)可见性： - 存储(至2031年)、光子学(至2029-2030年)等 - $NBIS、$SOL等，尽管资本支出巨大，但算力需求仍存在巨大失衡。 - 加上创纪录的预测（$NVDA 2027年增长70%，$SMCI新增服务器订单超600亿美元等）。 对比： 令人不安的宏观环境： - 沃什表示，如果核心通胀未明确回归2%，美联储“还有更多工作要做”。 - 7月PCE同比为3.7% - 7月就业报告新增就业减少2.3万，失业率4.1% - 10年期美债收益率高企/30年期创2007年以来新高 - 伊朗紧张局势持续 - 日元跌至160/韩国两次加息 且近期加息25个基点的概率为40/60。 这肯定会对融资产生影响，且第三/四阶效应太多，我个人无法完全映射。 我不是宏观专家，但我的看法是： AI建设将继续，预计明年上游投入超1.3万亿美元资本支出，流经许多瓶颈和卡点。 虽然市场削减了远期估值并转向当前盈利/防御性公司。 我不知道会发生什么，尤其是加息概率几乎五五开，且特朗普的帖子可能一夜之间改变情绪。 只要我没看到超大规模云厂商削减资本支出或需求波动的迹象。 尽管宏观波动，我保持做多，因为我想持有控制AI建设未来格局的公司。 如果宏观环境有任何好转迹象，高贝塔股通常恢复最快。
英文原文
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals. If you're curious about my take though: We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend. - combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc). vs. uncomfortable macro where: - Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%. - July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y - July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1% -10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007 - Iran tensions continuing - Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes. There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map. I'm not a macro expert but my take is: The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints. While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies. I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight. As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering. I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout. And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
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Soitec 产能协议进展顺利，硅光子衬底垄断地位确立。
还记得我关于 $SOI 的论点吗？Soitec 今天的采访评论： - 预计 1-2 周内将敲定 80% 的产能预留协议，总数超过 10 份。 - $2 亿的光子学-SOI 营收现在被描述为“绝对底线”。 $TSM 也认为硅光子集成 (SiPH) 将在 2027 年成为主流，市场份额将超过光收发器市场的 50%+。 如果你在一个瓶颈环节占据垄断地位： （瑞银估计 Soitec 在支撑硅光子芯片的衬底市场占据 95% 份额） 收入通常会流经你。
英文原文
Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.
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推测树莓派将受益于Mac Mini短缺及AI训练需求溢出。
@bob80924 是的，我将其作为旁注添加了。但我的理论是 $RPI 最终会承接 Mac Mini 短缺带来的溢出需求。同样的逻辑现在也适用于前沿实验室代理强化学习（Agent RL）训练中的 Openclaw。考虑到树莓派（Raspberry Pi）相对于苹果（Apple）的体量，这些销售在经济上将是显著的。目前尚无证据，只是猜测。
英文原文
@bob80924 Yes, I added that as a side note. But my theory is $RPI eventually gets the overflow from mac Mini shortages. Same idea with Openclaw now applied to frontier lab agent RL training. And those sales would be economically meaningful given Raspberry Pi’s size relative to Apple No proof of that yet, just a guess.
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AAOI基本面良好且需求可见度高，但6亿可转债构成短期压力。
@nosignal62478 我认为 $AAOI 没问题。我没在这里列出他们，是因为他们不被认为是商用连续波(CW)激光器的供应商（鉴于他们将其内部用于光收发器）。对2027年的需求可见度令人难以置信，只是有一笔6亿美元的可转债(ATM)，这带来了很大的短期抛压。
英文原文
@nosignal62478 I think $AAOI is fine. I didn't list them here because they're not known to be a merchant cw laser supplier (given they use them internally for transceivers). Demand visibility into 2027 is incredible, there's just a $600m ATM, which presents a lot of short term overhang.
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ESMT估值极低且库存受益涨价，看好传统存储短缺持续至2027年。
ESMT (3006) 基于7月年化收益的市盈率(P/E)仅为1.9倍。最新净收入为：7月净收入1.09亿美元，年化约13亿美元。拥有约3.959亿美元净现金和2.496亿美元库存。市值减去净现金和库存后，相当于约17个月的7月收益。随着存储价格上涨，库存变现将受益。其他分析师笔记显示，上季度平均售价(ASP)环比预期上涨105-113%。DDR2/DDR3、NOR Flash、SLC NAND价格预计下半年持续上涨。主要问题是持续时间，我个人认为传统DRAM/NAND短缺将在2027年持续收紧。其他人可能不同意。其他分析师如华南证券认为，联华电子(PSMC)晶圆涨价主要是成本传导（下半年将见分晓）。大多数人认为2028年远期市盈率约20倍的公司具有吸引力……但1.9倍的当前运行市盈率在我看来似乎是个异常值。这是我对该公司/传统存储主题的看法，至于是否被低估，我将交由他人/市场决定。
英文原文
ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized. Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory. The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to: ~17 months of July earnings. Where monetizing that inventory benefits from rising memory prices. Their ASP hike expectations were +105–113% Q/Q last quarter from other analyst notes. DDR2/DDR3, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, prices are expected to keep rising H2. The main question is duration, but I personally think legacy DRAM/NAND shortages tightens throughout 2027. Others might disagree. Other analysts like Huanan argue that PSMC wafer hikes are largely pass through (we'll find out H2). Most people are finding companies with ~20 forward P/E ending 2028 to be attractive... But 1.9x current runrate P/E seems like an anomaly to me personally. That's my take on the company/legacy memory theme, I'll let others/markets decide if that's undervalued.
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ESMT因DDR3供应紧张及高经营杠杆，Q2 ASP暴涨，前景看好。
我越研究 ESMT，对成熟制程存储(legacy memory)主题就越兴奋。 于是查阅了上半年的卖方模型... 3月 ESMT 报告： 华南(Huanan)：Q2 DDR3 4Gb ASP 环比+50% 富邦(Fubon)：引用 Q2 DRAM 价格约+40% 到了8月... 华南引用 ESMT Q2 ASP 增长： 环比+105–113% 混合。 称 DDR3 价格表现远超预期。 因此成熟制程存储价格转化为 ESMT 更高的经营杠杆。 关于力晶(PSMC)晶圆成本上涨：华南估计 H226 制造成本可能上涨~100%，但客户仍高度愿意接受转嫁。 若看7月净利润约1.09亿美元... 远高于早期模型构建的盈利水平。 如果我要给出报告的 TLDR “共识” 1. 随着竞争对手将产能转向高价值存储，DDR3/DDR2 供应保持结构性紧张。 2. 康和(Concord)认为 2026 年没有支持价格反转的条件。 3. 康和预计合约价上涨将覆盖更高的晶圆厂成本。 4. 华南后来发现客户接受这些成本上涨的意愿比预期更强。 从华南读到有趣的一点是 DDR3 用于 IP 摄像头和 HDD 等产品，其中内存组件在客户总 BOM 中占比较小。 因此即使成熟制程 DRAM 价格大幅上涨，成品 BOM 可能只增加几美元... 对许多客户而言，多付几美元比重新设计+重新认证更经济（但这实质性地流入 ESMT 的净利润） 总之，对这个想法很兴奋（*披露我持有仓位） TLDR： -> 华南更新 ESMT 混合 Q2 ASP 环比+105-113% -> 鉴于7月净利润爆发（使 ESMT 年化 RR 市盈率达 1.9x），若缺乏弹性持续+ESMT 因成品 BOM 成本低而能进一步提价，未来前景令人兴奋。 -> 迹象表明客户仍愿意接受力晶晶圆涨价的转嫁。
英文原文
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.
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SIVE受CW激光瓶颈利好，有望从瓶颈供应商成长为光学巨头。
@wannabepanacea 目前我所见的是由沟通失误和噪音引发的市场波动。论点破位的情况会是：1. 晶圆代工产能分配出现问题，因为这会影响供应。（但他们现在有两家）。2. 或者资格认证失败。（他们发出了上半年 $JBL 订单的信号，但还需观察）。从根本上说，我认为在 CW 激光（连续波激光）瓶颈期间，$SIVE 处于绝佳位置。我也看到 Sivers 有潜力成为更大的光学巨头，而不仅仅是关键的瓶颈供应商……这就是为什么我更关注公司的方向。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be 1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now). 2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see). Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck. I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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易胜达受益于成熟存储涨价且估值偏低，建议做多易胜达而非美光。
是的，易胜达(ESMT, 3006) 涉足多个成熟制程(legacy)存储细分市场。 其产品组合包括：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，也就是所有有趣的成熟制程产品。 如果你想关注易胜达所涉猎的更广泛的行业涨价趋势： 1. SLC NAND：2026年下半年预计上涨约120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026年第三季度预计上涨约35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度+30–40%（伴随DDR3供应收紧） 4. NOR：下半年+60–65%+（高密度） 5. MCP/eMCP：据我估算，易胜达环比可能上涨约+15–25% 官方收入结构拆解： DDR2 + DDR3：约占收入的45% DDR4/其他DRAM ~ 10% 的收入 eMCP/MCP ≈30% 模拟及其他 ≈15% 无论如何，持续时间和涨价幅度是关键： -> “没有任何一家全球主要SLC NAND供应商计划在近期增加新产能。” -> TrendForce特别预计，库存耗尽将使SLC NAND在第四季度供应更加紧张。 -> 华邦电子(Winbond)退出DDR2，将使库存更加紧张（他们正在分配订单至2029-2030年） -> 易胜达管理层表示，市场的主要问题在于供应而非需求；公司的晶圆代工产能分配仅覆盖了客户订单的大约60–70% -> 南亚科(Nanya)：“内存短缺可能持续到2027年底，2028年供需依然紧张” -> 南亚科明确表示，产能限制可能导致DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4和DDR3全面短缺。 -> 易胜达将eMCP列为因成熟制程资源被转移至其他领域而获得订单转移红利的产品之一 ______ 如果我要再次陈述我的观点： 我认为，尽管已计入力积电(PSMC) 45%的晶圆涨价因素，易胜达约1.9倍的7月年化运行市盈率(P/E)可能会进一步压缩，因为成熟存储价格仍在上涨。 行业评论支持这种趋势将持续至2027年。 锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期协议(LTAs)以及对2029-2030年的可见度（但这尚未计入估值）。 我认为市场要么不知道这一点，要么错误定价了持续时间，要么高估了力积电晶圆涨价的影响。 也许玩经典LOL中排名第一的挑战者“易胜达”的双排，比玩卡在低分段的“美光(Micron)”更有趣？
英文原文
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments. Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff. If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to: 1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate For official breakdown: DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15% Regardless, duration/hikes is the key: -> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______ If I had to state my thoughts again: I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes. Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027. Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in). I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects. Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?
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看好RDDT盈利增长及变现潜力，驳斥AI搜索引用看空论。
@Minnelli1286325 我喜欢 $RDDT，这是一家非常盈利的公司，同比增长了 61%，我预计他们会找到更多方法来增加受众变现。这是我最喜欢的软件板块标的之一。我认为“AI 搜索引用减少”的看空论调很愚蠢，因为如果你问街上 100 个人他们是如何发现或访问 Reddit 的，我很确定没一个人会说 OpenAI 的引用。它已经达到了像 YouTube/Instagram 那样的目的地层级。
英文原文
@Minnelli1286325 I like $RDDT, very profitable company, grew 61% Y/Y, I expect them to find more ways to increase monetization of audiences. One of my favorite software bucket names. I find the bear cases of "less AI search citations" to be dumb, since if you ask 100 of people on the street how they found or visit Reddit. I'm pretty confident not a single person would say OpenAI citations. It's already on the destination level as Youtube/Instagram.
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AXTI虽证实瓶颈地位，但需极高ASP才能支撑高估值，合同细节待观察。
@he8496 $AXTI 需要将磷化铟(InP)基板的平均售价(ASP)提高到内存级别的极端水平，才能实现进一步的重估，例如达到 2000-3000 亿美元的估值。我认为瓶颈已得到证实，其卡脖子地位也已得到证实。然而，我不清楚其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的合同或长期协议(LTA)具体包含什么内容。随着时间推移我们会看到结果（披露* 持有 AXT 股份）。
英文原文
@he8496 $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations. I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven. However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time (disclosure* own AXT shares).
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MU 市值暴涨至万亿，RDDT 回调后遭贬为垃圾股。
$MU：一年内市值从 1.33 万亿美元飙升至 1 万亿美元以上。 $RDDT 在经历两个月回调后："垃圾股" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
英文原文
$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
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博主赞赏Sivers CEO，认为其需摆脱本地市场限制。
@dxleolibra1003 很高兴看到你主动联系 $SIVE 的投资者关系(IR)部门，更棒的是你直接收到了CEO本人的回复！ 我认为 Sivers 的 CEO 非常出色，只是需要摆脱本地市场的限制。
英文原文
@dxleolibra1003 Cool to see you reaching out to $SIVE IR and it's even better you got a response back from the CEO himself! I do think Sivers' CEO is amazing, just gotta escape local markets.
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AMKR短期靠高价填补缺口增收，主要扩产预期在2028年。
@piyush1337 $AMKR 现有传统封装产能（如在菲律宾）利用率不足，如果那 20%+ 的缺口属实，可能会以更高价格填满，这对近期营收来说是“哗哗”进账。我仍认为主要扩产将在 2028 年初，一旦亚利桑那州的 $TSM + $NVDA 业务起飞。
英文原文
@piyush1337 $AMKR has existing traditional packaging capacity underutilized (like in Philippines), so if that 20%+ deficit is true Probably fills that up at higher prices so that's brrr to nearer term revenue. I still think the main ramp is early 2028 with Arizona once their $TSM + $NVDA stuff takes off.
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建议SIVE重塑为高增长光学公司，摆脱本地市场拖累。
@maroonjacket1 嗯，$SIVE 的 CEO 确实牛，但如果你去鱼市，就别指望有人问鱼以外的问题。Sivers 需要开始将自己定位并传达为一家高增长的光学公司，而不是被本地市场拖累。
英文原文
@maroonjacket1 Nah $SIVE CEO is goated, but if you go to a fishermen's market, don't expect many questions outside of fish. Sivers needs to both start treating and communicating themselves as a hypergrowth optical company. Rather than being weighed down by local markets.
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博主重申对SIVE运营面极度看好，因产能增加及模块披露，但批评会议提问质量差。
@dBooray 不，我仍然在运营层面非常看好$SIVE，随着额外的晶圆代工产能分配(Foundry Allocation)增加以及6个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的披露，我的看好程度更高了。我只是无法从这些电话会议中获得我想要的回答，因为提出的引导性问题很烂，或者聚焦于错误的事情。
英文原文
@dBooray No I'm still very bullish operationally on $SIVE, and much more so with the additional foundry allocation + 6 pluggable disclosure. I just couldn't get the answers I wanted to from these calls, because the leading questions asked were crap or focused on the wrong things.
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批评 SIVE 忽视美国投资者对增长潜力的关注，导致估值受限。
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然专注于瑞典本地市场的沟通和私募融资，而不是美国市场。面对瑞典受众时，你会遇到诸如“如何止血”、“为何不披露私人客户”、“为何聚焦光收发器（这很明显）”以及“非光子订单影响”等引导性或指责性问题。因此，CEO 三分之一的时间都在为“机会管道”的含义进行辩护。而美国分析师会追问：瓶颈期+ASP上涨/经营杠杆下的晶圆厂分配经济影响；这些分配带来的产能收入（美国分析师半数电话会议都问这个）；$GFS 的 NPO/CPO/可插拔规模影响及下游终端客户机会；Ayar 等 CPO 玩家 2028 年量产（刚融资 5 亿+）或 ELS 生产与 O-net 的 TAM 机会；6 家新可插拔玩家的规模，而非质问“为何不披露”；以及 CFO 关于上市时间表和 M&A TAM 扩张的法律声明。这样投资者才能感知 2027-2028 年的未来增长。相反，目前的问答框架聚焦于当前财务（美国投资者不关心）、非光子影响或对措辞的质疑，而非让美国投资者兴奋于 CW 激光瓶颈期的经济影响。$SIVE 在瑞典市场花的时间越多，其估值就越像瑞典公司。
英文原文
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage - Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts) - $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities - Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there. - How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them" - Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028. Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording. Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck. The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
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SIVE应聚焦增长与上市，而非应对无谓指控。
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE 的方向此前已分享，且与我认同的观点一致： -> 并购(M&A)重点（已引入2名相关新董事） -> 纳斯达克(NASDAQ)上市（已公布计划） -> 瓶颈期的产能（已宣布新的晶圆厂合作伙伴） -> 多项开发与认证正在进行中 他们在本季财报电话会上的沟通严重偏离重点。 他们不应把所有时间花在反驳瑞典市场关于“机会管道”的无谓指控上。 而应专注于未来增长机会的经济影响 + 加速纳斯达克上市进程，而非提供律师式的免责声明。
英文原文
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE direction has already been shared and aligned with what I've agreed with: -> M&A focus (they brought on 2 new related board members) -> NASDAQ listing (already announced plan) -> Capacity during bottleneck (announced new foundry partner) -> Many development/qualifications ongoing Their communication was super far off in this quarter's call. They shouldn't need to spend all their time defending against the useless Swedish market accusations about "opportunity pipeline". And just focus on economic impact of forward growth opportunities + accelerate NASDAQ listing process rather than giving lawyer like disclousres.
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对比马斯克与Sivers沟通风格，看好TSLA增长叙事。
@sebiisb 看看埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议(Transcripts)中的沟通风格对比。他非常具有前瞻性和远见。他聚焦于增长领域（如人形机器人）的经济影响，而非 $TSLA 财报中的薄弱环节。Sivers 的会议记录则感觉像律师式的披露，只是被动地为其类似 Allspace 的合同机会管道使用情况进行辩护。
英文原文
@sebiisb Look at the contrast of how Elon Musk communicates in his transcripts. Very forward looking and visionary. And focuses around economic implications of GROWTH areas (eg. humanoids), not weak parts of $TSLA earnings. Sivers transcripts felt like lawyer like disclosures and just going on the defensive defending opportunity pipelines usage with their allspace type contracts.
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博主因CFO沟通糟糕且含糊其辞，表示不愿持有该股票。
@platochi 沟通必须改善100%。CFO的声明让我想把手机扔出窗外。 “这一决定更多地取决于市场状况、投资者对业务势头的需求，以及我们是否相信在那一刻上市能为股东创造长期价值。” 这不是法庭吗？？？ 如果我再听到CFO重申这一点，我连自己都不会持有这只股票。
英文原文
@platochi Communication 100% needs to be better. The CFO statement made me want to throw my phone out the window. "the decision becomes much more a question of market conditions, of investor demand on business momentum and on whether we believe the listing at that moment would create the long-term value for shareholders" This isn't a courtroom??? Even I wouldn't hold the stock if I heard the CFO reiterate this one more time.
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Sivers若加速上市并收购私有AI光公司，有望快速复苏。
@CryptoVandelay 完全取决于 $SIVE 的执行能力及其对国际受众的沟通。他们拥有：-> 在两家晶圆代工厂瓶颈期间的巨大激光器产能 -> 许多正在进行的资格认证 -> 来自7000万美元融资的资金。如果他们想利用这些资源去收购一家像 Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter 那样的私有公司，并通过投入资源加速纳斯达克上市进程，我可以看到 Sivers 实现快速复苏。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay Fully dependent on $SIVE execution and int. audience communication. They have: -> tremendous laser capacity during a bottleneck from 2 foundries -> many ongoing qualifications -> capital from $70M fundraise If they want to leverage their way to a Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter type acquisition of a private company. And pull forward NASDAQ listing process by pouring resources to do so, I can see Sivers pulling a fast recovery.
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SIVE运营佳但CFO沟通差，估值低或被MRVL收购以整合Celestial。
@NieMehrKrieg 运营层面，Sivers 表现极佳。但在沟通方面，首席财务官(CFO) 的表现糟糕透顶，甚至可以说是惨不忍睹。 为了让大家对估值有个概念： $SIVE 现在的价格足够便宜，以至于 $MRVL 只需花点零钱就能将其收购，从而实现对其 Celestial 收购案的垂直整合。
英文原文
@NieMehrKrieg Operationally, Sivers has been doing amazing. Communication wise, it's been subpar and atrocious from the CFO. Just to give you a sense of valuations: $SIVE is cheap enough now that $MRVL could just blow spare change to buy it and vertically integrate their Celestial acquisition.
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批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。
如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。
英文原文
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
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指出Anthropic若2万亿上市，10%资金可买下众多消费品牌，暗示估值荒谬。
前沿实验室的相对估值如今是否过于荒谬？ 如果 Anthropic 以 2 万亿美元估值上市……其 10% 的资金几乎可以买下所有主要成熟的消费品牌： 包括： Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American Eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme…… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s…… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose。 全部一起买。仅用 Anthropic 的 10%。 他们还将剩下 516 亿美元。
英文原文
Are Frontier lab relative valuations are too absurd nowadays? If Anthropic IPOs at $2T… 10% of that can buy up almost every major established consumer brand: From: Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose. All together. Using 10% of Anthropic. And they’d still have $51.6B leftover.
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引用AXTI历史案例，指出市场曾强烈反对其13美元时的股价。
@Ice_Tradingg 当 $AXTI 股价为 13 美元时，市场也曾强烈反对。
英文原文
@Ice_Tradingg The market also strongly disagreed when $AXTI was $13.
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SIVE遭恶意做空，长期Capex增加是主要看空点。
@sokarsokk 混合了算法、空头以及数十个被重新启用或休眠的账户，专门用于散布关于 $SIVE 的负面消息。很难相信那些在 2016 年亚洲 ICO 期间用于营销的账户，或是新的 X 账户，会突然开始只发布 50 条针对 Sivers 的负面评论。尽管这些行为会导致短期波动，但基本面终将回归。我看到的实质性看空因素是，从 Fab-lite（轻晶圆厂）模式转向混合制造模式所带来的资本支出（Capex）增加的影响（但从长远来看这是不可避免的）。我还没看到多少人评论这一点。
英文原文
@sokarsokk Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers. Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up. The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run) I haven’t really seen much people comment on that
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分析某公司现金流与债务状况，认为其资金充裕且无息债，前景无忧。
@ethics3606 如果你将第二季度(Q2)的经营性现金流出与他们筹集的7000万美元结合起来看。仅这笔资金就能维持约2.5年，即使你忽略从资格认证(quals)流向高容量制造(HVM)的收入。在完成引导轮转换和退出后，他们也没有利息债务。他们完全没问题。
英文原文
@ethics3606 If you take Q2 operating cash outflow and the $70m they raised. That amount alone would last around 2.5 years, even if you ignore income that flows in from quals -> HVM. They also have no interest debt after bootstrap conversion + exit. They’re more than fine
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Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
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博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.