个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2479 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
反驳将万亿市值英伟达与早期光子学公司直接对比的观点。
@Ingeltun 也许是因为 $NVDA 是一家市值超过 5 万亿美元的公司。 然后你把它和一家处于资格认证阶段、市值 10 亿美元的光子学公司做比较，而该公司的所有产能爬坡都发生在 2027/2028 年。
英文原文
@Ingeltun Maybe because $NVDA is a $5+ trillion dollar company. And then you're comparing that to a qualification stage $1B photonics company where all their ramps happen 2027/2028.
-
SIVE主交所关闭，OTC流动性极薄，易受小额卖单冲击。
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE 的主要交易所已关闭。场外交易(OTC)市场流动性极薄，一笔小额卖单就可能引发大幅度的百分比波动。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE primary exchange is closed. An OTC market is extremely thin and a small sell order can trigger a large % move.
-
SIVE管道增长迅速且毛利高，但受认证周期限制，短期难爆发。
@Robertff8n 管道（Pipeline）在不到一年内从4亿美元增长至7.99亿美元，再增至12亿美元，我不太明白有人为何期待更多。 其收入质量与其他公司不同，因为 $SIVE 基于磷铟(InP)激光器的长期毛利率估算为55-60%。 这与（营收更高但）毛利率仅为30%的光模块(transceiver)不同。 此外，你无法突然跳过资格认证(qualification)周期并售罄至2030年，尤其是当他们正针对2027年下半年的扩展(scale up)新架构时。
英文原文
@Robertff8n Pipeline grew to $1.2B from $799m from $400m in less than a year, not quite sure how someone expects more. The revenue quality is different than others, since $SIVE was 55-60% long term gross margins est. off InP lasers. It's not the same as 30% transceiver margins (with more revenue). Also you can't suddenly escape qualification cycles and sell out to 2030, especially when they're targeting newer architectures for scale up in H2 2027
-
SIVE营收管道激增268%，资源转向量产，博主对财报电话会充满期待。
$SIVE 财报刚刚发布： 12亿美元营收机会管道，较12月增长268%（增长惊人）。 上次财报：7.99亿美元（这是惊喜，可能与捷普 Jabil 有关）。 2026年7月：约12亿美元（暗示要么有更多未宣布的客户参与，要么项目内产量爬坡更大）。 “Sivers 继续将资源从非经常性工程(NRE)项目重新分配到产品爬坡准备中。 Sivers 预计这一转型的影响将在2026年第四季度显现，并随着多个项目向量产推进，在2027年加速。” 时间线上说得通。 当前财务数据反映了一家处于资格认证阶段、量产爬坡前的玩家： - 营收564万美元（减少NRE活动，即将转向量产爬坡） - 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(Adjusted EBITDA)为-372万美元（鉴于一次性费用如社保会计支出，应关注此指标） 关键在于30分钟后的财报电话会议，目前非常兴奋。
英文原文
$SIVE earnings just got released: $1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth). Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil) July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs). "Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation. Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production." Makes sense on timelines. Current financials reflect a qualification-stage player before volume ramp: - $5.64M in revenue (reducing NRE activity, shifting to volume ramps soon) -$3.72M in adjusted EBITDA (what to look at given one-off charges, eg. social security accounting expense) Key thing to look at is earnings call in 30 minutes, very excited so far.
-
博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。
我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。
英文原文
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
-
博主看好ESMT(3006)，认为其受益于DDR2/3产能瓶颈及盈利激增。
我想布局DDR2/DDR3瓶颈持续带来的机会，于是找到了ESMT (3006)。 这是一家市值25亿美元的无晶圆厂(fabless)公司，拥有力积电(PSMC)的晶圆配额（尤其专注于DDR2）。 上月（7月）净利润为1.095亿美元，年化净利润为13.1亿美元（滚动市盈率1.9倍）。 如果我们回顾追踪传统DRAM价格涨幅期间的月度净利润： 2026年1月：约1600万美元（估算） 2026年2月：约1700万美元 2026年3月：约3100万美元（估算） 2026年4月：约5800万美元 2026年5月：约6000万美元（估算） 2026年6月：约6700万美元（估算） 2026年7月：约1.1亿美元 （估算月份是根据报告的季度总额推断的。7月为公司报告数据） 这种盈利进程让我想起$SNDK式的涨价+盈利拐点（特别是本月发布的报告）。 我预计DDR2/DDR3产能将在2027年全年保持紧张（随着华邦电子等传统玩家退出某些产线如DDR2）。 这并不完全是像其他同行那样的库存清算。当然低成本库存有帮助，但主要驱动力似乎是晶圆成本/供应与传统DRAM平均售价(ASP)之间利差的扩大？ 他们的资产负债表也非常稳健： - 手头现金：约3.959亿美元净现金 - 2.496亿美元库存，1.463亿美元应收账款 而且净利润的增长……是在预期Q3进一步传统DRAM涨价之前。 *披露持有仓位，非财务建议(NFA) 在没有太多评论的情况下早期介入总是有点令人畏惧。想知道是否有人能压力测试这个论点？ 毕竟一家今年仅从1600万美元增长到1亿美元月度净利润的公司（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）。 并且受益于本季度预计的另一波DDR2/DDR3涨价……据Trendforce称DDR2产线可能上涨35-40%，DDR3可能继续上涨。 市场只是不知道这个瓶颈/公司，还是我的研究漏掉了什么？
英文原文
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?
-
NVDA需求远超70%，但受限于产能仅能实现70%营收增长。
@JonahLupton $NVDA 表示需求远超 70%。只是他们的产能仅允许实现 70% 的营收增长，这太荒谬了。https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
英文原文
@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%. It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd. https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
-
博主对英伟达大幅超预期的营收预测表示震惊并极度看好。
@Yolo365247isme 是的，我对那些预测 genuinely shocked（真心震惊），这就像是营收超出共识约 1030 亿美元 lol。$NVDA 简直是在疯狂印钞，太神了。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme Yeah I'm genuinely shocked at those projections, it's like ~$103B revenue beat above consensus lol. $NVDA is just printing, holy.
-
NVDA指引受供应限制，云厂商CapEx上调利好高贝塔供应链。
$NVDA：“我们预计2028财年营收将增长约70%。这是一个受供应限制的展望。” 仅这一句话的重要性可能就超过了刚刚发布的整个业绩超预期？ 疯狂的向上修正：从预期的+43.9%上调至70%。 “随着云行业积压订单现已超过2万亿美元，前五大超大规模云服务商的资本支出预计将在2026年达到近8000亿美元，2027年达到1.3万亿美元。” 2027年达1.3万亿美元。（微软此前6月约为1.2万亿，因此这是上调预测） 是的，供应链中高贝塔部分的增长将会非常喜欢这一点。
英文原文
$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook" That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now? Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%. "With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027" $1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions) Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.
-
英伟达财报超预期，指引强劲，AI需求无放缓迹象，超额收益转向供应链。
$NVDA 财报要点(TLDR)： 营收：962.2亿美元 vs. 约921.7亿美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：2.22美元 vs. 2.09-2.10美元（超预期） 数据中心(DC)：890亿美元 vs. 约863亿美元（超预期） 调整后毛利率：75% vs. 75% 超大规模客户(Hyperscaler)营收：487.1亿美元，上季度为430.5亿美元（定制ASIC的增长并未真正阻止该营收加速） 关于指引： 营收：1080亿美元 vs. 约1042亿美元 调整后毛利率：74% vs. 75%（这几乎是唯一的疲软点） 过去4个季度的营收增长确实令人难以置信。 -> 681亿美元 -> 816亿美元 -> 962亿美元（当前） -> 下季度指引：1080亿美元，尽管假设中国数据中心计算营收为零。 有趣的是，英伟达表示其承诺从上一季度的1190亿美元跳升至2790亿美元，主要与未来几年的内存采购有关。所以内存需求会持续飙升。 要点：AI热潮持续不断。英伟达显然处于领先地位，且没有明显的需求放缓迹象。 鉴于英伟达已是5万亿美元+市值的公司，我认为现在的超额收益(alpha)主要来自英伟达的架构/容量决策如何影响供应链的其他环节（例如共封装光学(CPO)、内存、800V电源）。 而不是简单地寻找英伟达自身的定价错误。 无论如何，所有有趣的事情将在几分钟后的财报电话会议中发生。
英文原文
$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.
-
Saxo Japan 因高需求上线 $SIVE，博主期待其财报及纳斯达克上市。
我很高兴看到这么多人请求交易 $SIVE，以至于 Saxo Japan 特意将其列入交易名单！ 这充分展示了对这家激光公司（Laser Company）的巨大需求。 特别感谢 Saxo。当然，我也对 Sivers 即将发布的财报（Earnings）和计划中的纳斯达克（Nasdaq）上市感到兴奋。
英文原文
I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.
-
SMTC财报大超预期，光模块需求强劲，产能瓶颈凸显，博主虽未持仓但高度赞赏。
回到 $SMTC 的电影：“瓶颈疯狂运转”： 我最喜欢的引用是：“目前可用性比定价更重要”。 在当前光产品市场中： - 已预订的光学订单预计短期内不会流失，这表明他们能很好地转嫁成本上涨。 - 我其实最关心 Semtech 在收购 HieFo 后的连续波(CW)激光产品： Semtech 预计用于收发器的 CW 激光收入将于 FY28 上半年开始。明确表示产能有限。 与激光领导者相比，他们似乎仍大幅落后，但正在为 2027 年的爬坡取得进展。 - 终端接口适配器(TIA)和驱动器解决方案需求依然异常强劲（从 $AAOI 业绩中得到证实）。 继续深化与所有领先超大规模云服务商的合作。 “我们现在正在为每个模块供应商设计”，预计年底前 1.6T FiberEdge（TIA + 驱动器）的市场份额将超过 50%。 关于占据多数市场份额，这是一个非常有力的声明。 - 1.6T FiberEdge 认证比预期提前完成（对可插拔制造商如 AOI 是利好信号） 问：“关于积压订单延伸到 2028 年多久，有什么快速看法？” 答：对于本财年剩余时间的积压订单，我认为我们的目标已全部预订。对于明年，我们可能已完成 70% 以上。 管理层表示当前产能可能不足以应对 2028 财年，尤其是下半年（需求可见度极高） Q2 营收： - 3.419 亿美元 vs. 预期约 3.29 亿美元 - 调整后每股收益(EPS) 0.71 美元 vs. 0.61 美元 Q3 指引最令人兴奋： 4.1 亿美元营收 vs. 预期约 3.6 亿美元 1.05 美元 EPS vs. 0.73 美元 EPS。 是的……看看这漂亮的季度营收拐点。 巨大的业绩超预期，1.6T 爬坡的利好信号很强。我不持有 Semtech，但这些财报太棒了。
英文原文
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
-
博主因发现某内存股极具研究价值，放弃关注SMTC及其他今日财报。
在发现一家内存公司有趣到不得不去研究后，我对 $SMTC 以及今天所有的财报都失去了兴趣。
英文原文
Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...
-
GFS是27-28年光学重估标的，当前估值低，不建议押注短期。
@jusmentrades 呃，我相当确定 $GFS 是一个 2027-2028 年类型的光学重估故事…… 顺便提一下，他们到 2028 年的远期市盈率约为 11.5 倍，长期为 7.5 倍，所以我不太明白为什么要押注 2026 年 1 个半月的时间框架。 https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
英文原文
@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
-
SIVE抛压耗尽，预计财报催化后股价恢复正常。
@HealytheGOATT 股价大幅下跌主要是因为 Bootstrap Europe 从 7 月 3 日到 8 月 18 日左右完成期间，将其持有的 7% 流通股在瑞典市场抛售。与此同时，AI 板块整体下跌、共封装光学(CPO) 延迟的误报以及做空者的时机选择也加剧了跌势。两周前剩余的 165.9 万份认股权证(warrants) 似乎也在市场强势时被抛售。这种抛压(overhang) 已基本耗尽，因此我认为 $SIVE 在出现催化剂（如财报）后将恢复正常。
英文原文
@HealytheGOATT Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion. That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing. There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength. That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).
-
展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
-
看好SIVE获新资质或联合开发机会，因行业正积极寻求合作。
@adiradir734145 我认为市场只需让主厨 $SIVE 继续烹饪。从其他财报来看，大家似乎都在积极接触 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 等厂商以达成协议。因此，Sivers 获得新资质或联合开发的机会似乎相当高。
英文原文
@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.
-
澄清对AAOI的看多立场，虽不满其ATM融资时机但认可其产能瓶颈逻辑。
关于$6亿自动取款机(ATM)融资，到处都有误读。我依然看多$AAOI，且持仓较重（所以我更在意）。 我一直坚持的观点是：不喜欢过度使用ATM/稀释股权进行融资。此前在$IREN和$POET上我也这么说过。 我会对自己的持仓如AOI保持一致性。 然而，我超配AOI而非其他（看着你Poet）的原因是： AOI确实面临产能瓶颈，且需求可见度高。 关于时机： - AOI本应等到1.6T光模块认证完成（预计未来几周） - 本可使用高于市价的可转债等其他结构 但他们在股价从$220跌至$130时操作，且未来每次使用ATM都可能带来短期结构性抛压。 我不必支持每一个商业决策，才能继续做多。
英文原文
Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.
-
Reddit 认为 Marvell 获谷歌 TPU 大单，迎来重大利好。
显然，$RDDT 认为 $MRVL 近期有两个主要催化剂： 价值 122 亿美元的 Google TPU 生态系统协议。 以及…… 蜘蛛侠：“崭新的一天” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo
英文原文
Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently: The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement. And… Spider-Man: “Brand New Day” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo
-
博主持有AAOI但对其融资策略存疑。
@OscarCantInvest 我仍然持有 $AAOI 的头寸，但我可能不喜欢其融资方式/时机/金额。
英文原文
@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.
-
AAOI频繁ATM融资稀释股权，博主强烈看空
随着 $AAOI 频繁进行 5 亿或 6 亿美元的自动柜台交易(ATM)发行，越来越难支持它。虽然运营前景可能在某时点转好，但股权结构/融资方式正变得对股东越来越不友好。我非常非常讨厌 ATM 和不断的资本募集，即便它们是在扩充产能。
英文原文
It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right. At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive. But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly. Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.
-
质疑Citadel借加息恐慌低吸AI持仓，待市场反弹后高位派发。
呃，Citadel（城堡证券）？ > 声称紧急加息。随后引发更多崩盘/清算 > 不加息 > 主动联系购买被清算的对冲基金投资组合 > 以数十亿美元买入 Situational Awareness（情境感知）的持仓 > 声称 AI 牛市逻辑完好 > 市场反弹 > 在买盘压力下抛售 AI 股票 我只是在陈述时间线……
英文原文
Uhh Citadel? > Say emergency rate hike. More crashes/liquidations follow > No rate hike > Reaches out to buy liquidated hedge fund portfolios > buys billions of Situational Awareness holdings. > Says AI bull case is intact >markets rally > Sells AI stocks into the buying pressure I’m just stating the timeline here…
-
参考宇树和SPCX IPO反应，博主对Anthropic上市持保留态度。
在目睹了机器人和太空板块对宇树科技和 $SPCX IPO 的反应后，我不太确定是否希望 Anthropic 上市…… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
英文原文
After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
-
MRVL获GOOGL和AMZN巨额订单，印证其成为万亿市值公司的潜力。
$MRVL 授予 $GOOGL 购买价值 122 亿美元公司股权的期权。 “Marvell-Google 交易涵盖与 TPU 配套使用的广泛技术，包括运行 AI 模型的处理器、管理数据存储以及跨网络传输信息的设备。” 这可能转化为到 2033 年约 1200 亿美元的营收。 Marvell 在完成 Celestial 收购（用于光网络架构采购）后，也与 $AMZN 签订了单独的认股权证。 还记得 Jensen 说 Marvell 将成为下一个万亿美元市值公司的美好时光吗？ 看来 Nvidia 早就知道 Marvell 正通过认股权证“编织”进入所有超大规模云服务商的供应链。
英文原文
$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage and move information across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.
-
看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
-
AAOI获美国生产溢价且需求旺盛，CPO将推高利润率，强烈看多。
我在罗森布拉特峰会上关于 $AAOI 的 TLDR 笔记： - 预计因在美国生产 800g/1.6T 光模块而获得溢价（对 ASP/利润率非常有利）。 - 桌上有几份长期协议(LTA)，但不想签署以免产能被其他客户（咳咳 $NVDA）锁定。 - 至少已售罄至明年下半年及以后。（高需求可见度，类似 $LITE） - 已拥有 300-400 mW 激光器。 - 预计一旦共封装光学(CPO) 到来，利润率将超过 40%+（可能是重估估值的最重要因素）。 我无法理解任何人看空这家公司……
英文原文
My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...
-
博主重申持有HPS.A，看好其变压器及光子业务前景，尽管当前浮亏。
@I_Am_Bloateds 我仍然持有这两家公司的头寸？我持有的标的不应影响你自己的决策。 Transformer（变压器）瓶颈目前正阻碍美国AI基础设施建设，干式和液式（后者情况更极端）的交货期都非常长。$HPS.A 的积压订单同比增长96.9%，鉴于其市场份额…… 我不认为它们会消失。 我很确定我在~170时分享过这个观点，它曾翻倍，但现在回调至240，不过每个人的成本平均价不同吧。 这家比利时公司主要是2028年上半年的CPO（共封装光学）/光子量产受益者。他们与IMEC合作进行的MTP工作，以$NVDA为终端用户处于评估阶段，应该非常有趣。 他们的CHIPS法案MEMS/光子设施也将于2028年下半年投产，800V转换明年应为任何碳化硅(SiC)相关业务带来实质性收入增长。 我亏损-31%，因为我的成本平均价高得多。但它们正接近替换账面价值远高于市值的水平。
英文原文
@I_Am_Bloateds I still have positions in both companies? What I hold shouldn't affect your own decisions. Transformer bottlenecks are stalling the US AI buildout now and lead times are very long for both dry and liquid (which is more extreme). Backlog is +96.9% Y/Y for $HPS.A and given their market share... I don't they're going anywhere. Pretty sure I shared this idea at ~170, it did 2x, but corrected back to 240 now, but cost average is different per person I guess. The Belgian company is primarily H1 2028 as a CPO/photonics volume ramp beneficary. And the work they're doing with MTP with IMEC for $NVDA as an end user in evaluation stage should be very interesting. Their CHIP act facility for MEMS/photonics also comes online H2 2028 too, and 800V transitions should bring them material revenue growth for anything SiC adjacent next year. I'm down -31%, since my cost average is a lot higher. But they're approaching levels where replacement book value is a lot higher than MC.
-
博主希望AAOI回调至80美元加仓，并看好激光、新云及存储板块2027年需求。
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI 其实是我希望股价能回到 80 美元以便我能加仓的那只股票。 激光相关个股在 2027 年全年的需求可见度（Demand Visibility）简直令人难以置信…… 像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）或像 $SNDK 这样的存储（Memory）概念股也是如此。
英文原文
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
-
博主因无法买A股，通过CCXI布局人形机器人并看好Unitree。
@tRbW6qAUT717891 我无法购买A股，所以我坚持投资美股市场。 通过 $CCXI（由 $NVDA、$AMZN、软银支持）的敏捷性是我个人对机器人(人形机器人)领域的敞口。 但我正在为所有中了 Unitree 股票彩票的人欢呼。
英文原文
@tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.
-
CCXI预计10月更名Agility，官方确认为Q4。
@AZAAC6 $CCXI 的名称最早将在10月左右更改为 Agility。所以大概是从现在起两个月后。 官方说法是第四季度。
英文原文
@AZAAC6 $CCXI name changes into Agility sometime in October at the earliest. So maybe 2 months from now. Officially it's Q4.