个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 3 / 45 页
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认为 FOCI 被严重低估
FOCI（3363）是现在全市场里被低估最严重的 CPO 玩家之一，市值大概只有 30 亿美元。 它的 BOM 相对市值非常大，而且预计会拿到 $NVDA / $TSM 的主导性份额。 你要到 2027 / 2028 年才会真正看到这件事兑现，虽然我们现在已经进入 2026 年下半年了（这也是我说在提前押注 CPO 超级周期）。
英文原文
FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).
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说 Shunsin 的 CPO/SiPh 逻辑开始兑现
花了一个月…… 但我关于 Shunsin（6451）CPO / SiPh 的想法开始兑现了。 我一直说，像 $IQE 到 $SOI 这些 thesis，通常会在我发帖后大概 1 个月左右突然开始上涨……这真的很诡异。 也许是机构在跟单？ https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
英文原文
Took a month… But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out. I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny. Maybe institution copy trading? https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
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对 CBRS 估值太高但仍看好短期波动
我不太喜欢 $CBRS，尤其是市值到了大约 900 亿到 1000 亿美元的时候。 但我喜欢这家公司。 IPO 之后因为流通盘和浮筹动态，短期内往往会出现很大的估值错位，就像 $CRCL 或 $BULL 一样。 所以我不会惊讶它会在短时间里交易到离谱估值，直到后面才修正。
英文原文
Not a fan of $CBRS, especially at ~$90B-100B MC valuations. But I do like the company. There’s a lot of short term valuation disconnects with float dynamics after IPO as seen with $CRCL or $BULL though. So would not be surprised if it ends up trading at absurd valuations for a short time until things correct.
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不接受 CRBS 在 700 亿美元估值下的价格
@TheMarathon8320 我喜欢 $CRBS，但在 700 亿美元估值下不喜欢，所以不行
英文原文
@TheMarathon8320 I like $CRBS but not at a $70B valuation, so nope
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惊讶某标的现在估值比 FOCI 还高
@zephyr_z9 我其实很惊讶它现在的估值比 foci 还高。 https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I’m surprised it has a higher valuation now than foci tho https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
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看好 FOCI 在未来两年大幅跑赢
说实话，我预计 FOCI（3363）在接下来两年会远远打爆预期。 这个价位对我来说是中期非常高置信度的持仓。 因为他们预计会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，而且经常被提到是支撑 2028 年 $91B+ CPO TAM 的关键瓶颈（GS）。 太离谱了：一个推动规模化所必需的关键 CPO 瓶颈，市值只有 30 亿美元；而 LightWave Logic 这种还在开发阶段的公司，市值也差不多有 27 亿美元。
英文原文
Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.
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看好 Harmonic Drive 的人形机器人敞口
我觉得 Harmonic Drive（6324）是 GS research report 里列出来的人形机器人敞口里比较好的一个，估值大约 40 亿美元。 我个人也买了一些，作为敞口。 中国竞争对手也许会被用于大规模生产。 但我个人更偏好投资西方供应链，并把它们扶起来。
英文原文
Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report. Personally I picked some up for exposure. Chinese competitors might be used for mass production. But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.
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认为 Amazon 在机器人领域被严重低估
@Dog_Ziller 我其实觉得 $AMZN 的机器人业务被严重低估了。 因为它立刻就能通过自动化降低 opex 和 headcount，带来实际收益。 至于通用人形机器人，$TSLA、Unitree、Figure、Boston Dynamics、Agibot、Agility 这些名字应该都会表现不错。
英文原文
@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated. Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation. But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.
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总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
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强调 POET 从 6 美元到 14 美元的三位数收益
@MajorOcelot45 我只是看结果，这些都是粉丝高置信度的建议。 这里提到 $POET 时才 6 美元，现在已经 14 美元了，所以一个月三位数回报，没什么好争的……
英文原文
@MajorOcelot45 I’m only looking at results, these are follower high conviction suggestions. $POET was mentioned at $6 here, it’s $14 now, so can’t argue with triple digit returns in a month…
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澄清$TSEM与MOCVD/SIPh扩产逻辑无关
它们根本就不是，也没有半点关联。我真不明白为什么老是有这些事后诸葛亮式的评论，随随便便抛出一堆股票代码，还附带一堆错误的观点。它们不会随着下游SiPh(硅光子)体量而扩展，$TSEM跟MOCVD资本开支毫无关系？它们甚至都不买MOCVD设备？
英文原文
They're literally aren't and have 0 affiliation. I'm not sure why I keep getting these backseat comments throwing out random tickers with wrong ideas. They don't scale with downstream SiPh volume, $TSEM has nothing to do with MOCVD capex? They don't even buy MOCVD equipment?
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NBIS 财报强劲并大幅超预期
$NBIS 的财报非常亮眼，现在盘前已经交易到 200 美元以上。 他们重申 2026 年 70-90 亿美元 ARR、40% 调整后 EBITDA margin 预期，远超市场预期。 4 GW 已签约产能，$NVDA 通过扎实的融资结构提供了 63 亿美元资本支持。 很高兴我高置信度的 Neocloud 持仓表现这么好，也很高兴管理层执行得这么出色。 用 Jensen 的话说：“Nebius 会照顾好你们的。”
英文原文
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”
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MSCI 小盘股纳入对 SIVE 是重大利好
哇，$SIVE 被纳入 MSCI Global Small Cap Index。 这极度利好，因为随着市值变大，会触发更多被动资金流入。 再平衡会在 5 月 29 日进行。
英文原文
Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.
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Sivers半导体因美国机构入主和$LITE系高管加持，NASDAQ上市有望加速。
为了让事情变得更加有趣。 $SIVE由UC Berkeley的CEO们和$LITE的前高管们运营。 而且股权结构表现在已被美国机构/投资者控制。 我预计NASDAQ上市进程会加速，因为美国机构非常青睐这样的高管团队+股权结构。 美国/硅谷现在正在快速推进一家瑞典名义的光子学公司。
英文原文
To make things even spicier. $SIVE is run by UC Berkeley CEOs and $LITE executives. And the ownership cab table is now controlled by American institutions/investors. I’d expect things to speed up on NASDAQ listing as American institutions are heavy fond of executive teams + cap tables like this. US/Silicon Valley is now speedrunning a Swedish in name photonics company.
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SIVE 还在欧洲交易，希望尽快美股化
@softmaxedx 对，像 $SIVE 这种名字现在还在欧洲交易，遗憾的是还受瑞典本地市场流动性影响。 希望它尽快变成美国公司。
英文原文
@softmaxedx Yep names like $SIVE are still trading in Europe sadly and are affected by regional Swedish market liquidity. Hope it ends up an American company soon enough.
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认为 FLNC 可能因浮筹解锁而错失反弹
@0xResurge 对，时机确实很不幸。 如果公司什么都不做，本来完全可能看到 $FLNC 翻倍。但浮筹解锁会形成很强的心理压制，即使没有人真的卖出。
英文原文
@0xResurge Yeah it’s unfortunate timing. Could have easily seen $FLNC doubling if the company left things alone. But the float unlock creates a ton of psychological overhang, even if nothing is sold.
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解释 FLNC 20M 股增发/解锁带来的短期压力
$FLNC 的 2000 万股发行，如果你想知道为什么它在跌。 这 2000 万股并不算稀释，而是锁定解锁 + 转移，所以只是换手。 真正的问题是条款会让 117,666,665 股里剩余大约 9700 万股的 shelf-registered resale capacity 继续打开，据我所知。 这对短期交易是明显的负面，而且影响很大，因为它扩大了流通盘，也带来了短期卖压。 这就是 overhang…… 我在看到这个意外消息后，确实降低了仓位，因为它改变了我对这个交易的判断。 不过我还是留了一点，想看看后面 hyperscaler deals 会把它带到哪。 我不是在告诉大家该怎么做，只是在呈现公司管理层制造出来的新 overhang。
英文原文
$FLNC 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down. The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands. The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge. Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure. That’s the overhang… I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure. But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals. Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.
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Auros 基本面未变，等下半年量产爬坡
@SharkSociety_ Auros 没什么变化，我在现在价格下依然觉得它有吸引力。现在只是等 SK Hynix / Samsung 在 H2 某个时候通过认证后开始放量。 在那之前大概率还会有波动。
英文原文
@SharkSociety_ Nothings changed with Auros and I find it compelling at current prices. It's just waiting on SK Hynix/Samsung volume ramp sometime H2 from qualification right now. There's probably going to be volatility up until then.
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为上纳斯达克而稀释一点点反而利好 SIVE
为了登陆 NASDAQ 稀释 2.5%，对 $SIVE 来说其实非常看多；我看到它在美国市场交易后会走向 30 亿美元以上市值。 我认为它现在价格被低估了，只是还被瑞典本地市场限制着。 我个人不太明白为什么 $LWLG 和 $POET 能值 23 亿到 26 亿美元，而 Sivers 只大约 15 亿美元，却在给大量 hyperscaler 供应商供货。
英文原文
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.
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AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口……我还在犹豫 CPO 到底是更利好它，还是更伤害它。
英文原文
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI is extreme pluggable exposure... Still debating if CPO helps them more than it hurts
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反驳别人替我歪曲我对 IREN 的看法
我不明白为什么大家老是把我关于 $IREN 的话歪曲成别的意思。 我从来没这么说过。 我真正说的是，ATM 发行太多会在反弹时压制结构性的上行空间，因为股份会被不断卖进公开市场。 所以更好的做法，是去做多另一只真正能增值的股票。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people like putting words in my mouth with $IREN. I've never said that. What I've said was excessive ATM's cap structural upside on rallies because shares get sold into the open market. So it's better to go long on another equity that actually appreciates in value.
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解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
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喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工股被更多关注
@EVOLBullStocks 我其实很喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工公司能获得更多关注。 只是这个行业本身太无聊了（但复利很好），而投资者现在似乎更偏爱 $SNDK 这种高增长故事。
英文原文
@EVOLBullStocks I actually like NCI a lot and hope Japanese chemical players get more attention. It's just a very boring type of industry (but great compounders) and investors seem to prefer the $SNDK hypergrowth stories right now.
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Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它更像融资机器
正如我之前说的，$IREN 跟 $NBIS 比起来基本就是垃圾。 $NVDA 还没给 $IREN 融资。 所以 IREN 只能想办法通过 60 亿美元 ATM 和其他方式买足 GPU，把 5GW 产能变现。 这本质上就是一台无限稀释机，只是因为它拿到了电力。 我叫 $IREN 持有人 0 IQ，是因为他们只是为了拿到稀释而买入，却不理解融资结构的细节。 Nvidia 确实给了 $NBIS 资金。 而 IREN 只是拿到了一个允许它用 logo 的无风险采购协议。 $IREN 现在基本就是一家营销公司，而其他 Neocloud 才是真正让股权升值的公司。
英文原文
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
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ALRIB 没变化，自己还持有
@0xMonney $ALRIB 没什么变化，就是没有新消息。 我还是持有我的多头仓位。
英文原文
@0xMonney Nothings changed with $ALRIB, just no new news. I still have my long positions.
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SIVE 被大量做空，反而可能让空头很难受
今天才知道 $SIVE 被做空得这么狠…… 难道价格意外上涨，真的会把对冲基金打趴下？ 一个叫 Colosseum 的对冲基金，上个月跌了 19.8%，很大程度上就是因为他们做空了 Sivers。 接下来两年 CPO 以抛物线方式爬坡，他们就要面对无限损失。 Sivers 从来不是一个纯短挤压题材，因为从基本面看，它本身就是最有吸引力的 CPO 多头之一。 但这个副作用还是挺有意思的，尤其是现在他们可能还得回补一部分流通股。
英文原文
Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted... That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds? A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers. They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years. Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs. But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.
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认为 FLNC 应该更高估值
我其实觉得 $FLNC 应该更值钱。 一个季度里接连拿到 2 个直接 hyperscaler 合同，这个意义非常大。 $MSFT 到 $AMZN 不会签小单。 当然市场通常会等更多实际新闻 / 采购订单数字出来，怕它最后没落实或者比预期低。 但一家公司的确不会无缘无故宣布 2 个 hyperscaler MSA，还说订单会在 Q3 到。 而且一个季度赢得多个 hyperscaler 合同，本身就是后续更多合同的领先指标，尤其是 Fluence BESS 越来越标准化的时候。 考虑到空头比例大约 27.69%，我不确定财报前的空头是否真的敢冒这个险…… 如果像 $GOOGL 这样的 hyperscaler 签下大合同，我觉得有机会来一波历史级上涨。
英文原文
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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AAOI 的财报下跌反而给了更好的买点
@Jess252530 对，我最后还是买了那次下跌，并且一路摊上去了。 其实当时的业绩预测非常看多，大家不应该因为 $AAOI 的当前财报就不看它，如果它是 2027 年下半年才真正进入成长的公司。
英文原文
@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up. It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.
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依旧看空 IREN，认为融资结构更差
@LMutaaya 大家当时在我 71 美元看空 $IREN 时都说“你在开玩笑吧”。 $NVDA 没有给他们融资，所以他们需要通过别的方式去借钱买 GPU，支撑 5GW 产能。 可转换债其实比 ATM 好得多。
英文原文
@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71. $NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity. Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.
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2.5% 稀释已解决，反而是重大利好
@DVoskens 今天 2.5% 的稀释已经解决了。这个事情之前就计划了很久。 人们 / 算法通常会对稀释反应负面，但在 $SIVE 这个例子里，其实极度正面。
英文原文
@DVoskens The 2.5% dilution was resolved today. It was planned for awhile. People/algos typically react negatively to dilution but in this case with $SIVE it’s incredibly positive
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认为纳斯达克上市带来的稀释是正面的
跟很多人 / 算法想的不一样： 让 $SIVE 通过 2.5% 稀释，实际上在这个案例里是非常正面的。 因为这能让它尽快在美国纳斯达克上市。 我不确定是否存在什么股份发行套利在影响短期价格。 但获得美国机构资本、加快扩张、把公司从瑞典小市场里重新定价，才是首要任务。
英文原文
Contrary to what people/algos think: Getting 2.5% dilution passed with $SIVE is actually extremely positive in this case. Since that helps them get listed on US Nasdaq ASAP. Not sure if there’s any share issuance arbitrage at all impacting short term prices. But getting access to US institutional capital to accelerate expansion + repricing out of small Swedish markets is priority.
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没卖过 SIVE，依旧最看好激光公司
@Leon8995385220 我不控制 $SIVE 的盘中波动。 我一股都没卖过，因为它真的是我见过的、在 CPO 2027 放量背景下最有吸引力的激光公司。
英文原文
@Leon8995385220 I don’t control intraday volatility with $SIVE. Haven’t sold a single share since it’s genuinely the most compelling laser company I’ve seen as CPO scales up 2027.
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猜测 SIVE 未来可能变成美国光子公司
@MrPelican2025 我不会惊讶如果有一天 $SIVE 变成一家美国光子公司。
英文原文
@MrPelican2025 I would not be surprised if $SIVE became an American photonics company one day.
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给出 SIVE 未来市值路径与对标 LITE 的想法
我觉得 $SIVE 明年会到 100 亿美元以上，到了 2028 年如果管理层把牌打好，能扩到 400 亿美元以上。 这很大程度上取决于管理层是不是足够有野心，想不想成为下一个 $LITE。 但这正是 Lumentum 当年怎么做的：先拥有 laser chokepoint，再向下游买 IP，把更多 TAM 吃进去。
英文原文
I think $SIVE ends up $10B+ next year and can scale to $40B+ in 2028 if they play their cards right. Really depends on how ambitious management is if they want to become the next $LITE. But this is exactly how Lumentum started owning the laser chokepoint then IP acquisition downstream to capture more TAM.
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说瑞典媒体可能终于发现股权已转向美国机构
我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到他们都干了什么，于是停止发帖了？ $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 多头，尤其是在 laser chokepoint 这块。 https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
英文原文
I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting? $SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint. https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
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坚持做多 AXTI 即便它会拖累光学链条
@deron0903 当然想过这个问题。但如果 $AXTI 下跌，和 $LITE 以及其他公司的光学扩产也会一起受影响。 所以我才觉得做多它是值得的。
英文原文
@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too. Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.
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强调 SIVE 的真正增长来自光子业务
@bexilon99 你看到的是一个前期开发合同，但那只是他们另一个业务段。 他们真正的增长都来自 photonics。 $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口多头。
英文原文
@bexilon99 You're looking at a pre-production dev contract with their other segment. Their entire growth comes from photonics. $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure long I've seen.
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AAOI被比作光学版Intel，借超大规模需求东风，2027年收入预测显示严重低估。
我之前在 $AAOI 市值 $6.49B 时就说过同样的话。 现在市值 $11.5B，故事还是一样的： 基本上这就是光学(Optics)版的 $INTC，他们正在将产能从激光晶圆制造扩展到美国本土组装。 他们生产的任何东西都可能被超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)收购。 如果看 2027 年中期预测的 $1.41B 季度收入增长（$471 x 3）与当前市值的对比，当前的财务数据其实不太重要。 以及高盛预测的 9 倍 TAM 增长曲线。
英文原文
I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B. Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story: Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America. Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.
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认为 SIVE 只是正常回调，股权在转向美国投资者
没什么，只是轻微回调。我对 $SIVE 后续还是很有信心。 这只是 CPO 超级周期前，股份从瑞典人手里标准地转给美国投资者。大概还有 7% 左右还在瑞典本地。 这种回调通常会带来更高的高点，并形成更强的股东基础。
英文原文
Nothing, just a slight correction. I have high conviction in $SIVE moving forward. It’s just a standard transfer of shares to US investors before the CPO supercycle, think Swedish retail have ~7% or so left. Corrections like this tend to lead to higher highs with a stronger shareholder base.
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仍然看好 RDDT 这类非 AI 名字
我仍然觉得 $RDDT 是少数几个非 AI 名字里非常有吸引力的一个。 单看它们增长有多快，以及财报后的真实盈利能力。 老实说我还是不明白它为什么跑输大盘…… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
英文原文
I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling. Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings. Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
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FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同而重估
而且……$FLNC 现在已经涨了 50% 以上。 我本来就觉得它被低估了，而再加上两个 hyperscaler 合同，简直是锦上添花。 很期待市场会把这家能源公司重估到什么程度。 https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq
英文原文
And… $FLNC is up over 50% now. I did think it was undervalued as is, but it was a massive cherry on top throwing in 2 hyperscaler deals. Exciting to see how much markets re-rate this energy company. https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq
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Nomura 给 SOI 250 欧元目标价的反向验证
哈哈。Nomura 刚开始覆盖 $SOI，就给了 250 欧元目标价。 当我在大约 43 欧元做多时，第一次涨 25% 之后，机构还说不要买，说没有新东西。 现在两个月后，他们给出的目标价已经是我 thesis 发帖价的 6 倍多了。 https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
英文原文
LOL. Nomura initiates $SOI coverage and gives it a EUR 250 PT. Back when I went long at ~€43, after the first +25% institutions were saying not to buy and that there’s nothing new. Now 2 months later they’re giving price targets ~6X+ my thesis post. https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
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盘前因双 hyperscaler 合同大涨
现在还是盘前…… 但因为 $FLNC 拿下了两个直接 hyperscaler 合同，已经涨了 18.66%。 尤其是在这么小的市值下，这类合同通常会带来巨大的重估。 https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4
英文原文
It’s still premarket… But +18.66% off $FLNC having 2 direct hyperscaler contracts coming up. Especially at this tiny MC, having these types of contracts typically leads to massive re-rating. https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4
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回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题
@xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR（美国存托凭证）路线，你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换，它就会开始在美国市场上交易，类似$ARM。
英文原文
@xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.
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分析$SIVE股东结构剧变，瑞典资本撤离而美国资本接盘，控制权即将完成转移。
我之前说什么来着？$SIVE 正在经历所有权从瑞典向美国转移的过程…… 如果我正确解读了新的大股东名册（cap table）： 美国/西方现在持有 $SIVE 42.18% 的股份： ~$FNF（富达）- 11.5%（美国/西方） ~$SCHW（嘉信）- 11.4%（美国/西方） ~$IBKR - 9.25%（美国/国际） ~ 佩兴集团（纽约梅隆）- 4.15%（美国/西方） ~ 摩根士丹利 - 3.12% ~ 美林证券（$BOA）- 2.76% 欧洲：约 7.73%： 明讯银行（Clearstream Banking）- 6.16%（欧洲） 瑞士银行 - 1.57%（瑞典/欧盟） 而瑞典人现在只持有 $SIVE 约 7.49% 的股份： Avanza Pension 保险公司 - 4.76% Nordnet 人寿保险公司 - 2.73% 此前，Sivers 是一家约 60% 欧洲/瑞典散户持股的公司…… 从那以后一路下跌，接近于零，因为他们在不断抛售股份。 美国人即将获得接近绝对多数的控制权，恰在 2027 年 CPO（共封装光学）超级周期之前。 转让似乎快完成了？
英文原文
What did I say? $SIVE was undergoing a transfer of Swedish ownership over to the US... If I'm interpreting things right from the new cap table. The US / West now owns 42.18% of $SIVE: ~ $FNF (Fidelity) - 11.5% (US/West) ~ $SCHW (Schwab) - 11.4% (US/West) ~ $IBKR - 9.25% (US/International) ~ Pershing (BNY Melon) - 4.15% (US/West) ~ Morgan Stanley - 3.12% ~Merrill Lynch ( $BOA ) - 2.76% Europe: ~7.73%: Clearstream Banking - 6.16% (European) UBS Switzerland AG - 1.57% (Swedish/EU) While Swedish now hold ~7.49% of $SIVE: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring AB - 2.73 Before, Sivers was a ~60% European/Swedish retail owned company... They went from that, down closer to 0 as they keep selling their shares. US has close to majority control, right before the CPO supercycle of 2027. Transfer seems almost complete?
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解释 IREN 拿到的是无风险品牌授权，不是真投资
@bennybigbull 他们拿到的是**购买 3000 万股的权利**。 $NVDA 根本没有投钱。 他们只是因为允许 IREN 使用他们的品牌、并进一步稀释自己去买 Nvidia GPU，才拿到一个无风险的期权式认购协议。
英文原文
@bennybigbull They have the **right to** buy 30m shares. $NVDA hasn't invested anything. They just got a risk-free option purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their branding and dilute more to buy Nvidia GPUs.
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认为 IREN 的主牛点只是软件收购，但仍不想接稀释
@CookerFlips 某种程度上是这样。$IREN 的主要牛点，如果你愿意忽略噪音的话，其实是他们最近收购了 Mirantis 的软件业务。 但我还是不想去接那种为了买 5GW GPU 产能、被稀释 60 亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@CookerFlips In a sense. The main bull case for $IREN was their software acquisition with Mirantis recently if you want to look past the fluff. Still wouldn't want to be the one to get diluted $6B to fund their 5 GW worth of GPU purchases.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它只是品牌协议和稀释机器
我现在还是看空 $IREN。 算法 / 散户大概是看见 $NVDA 和 $IREN 合作就冲了进去。 但如果看现实情况，那更像是一个品牌协议，给了 $NVDA 无风险的可转票据。 所以 $IREN 还能继续把 60 亿美元 ATM 卖给散户。 这就像一家创业公司用了 AWS，就说自己和 Amazon 合作，然后让别人给它 60 亿美元。 这根本不是 Nvidia 直接给 IREN 融资，只是给了它一个无风险选择权。 有个“5GW 部署”故事，但我不想成为那个替它接稀释的人。
英文原文
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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财报非常正面，市场反应却看错了
$AAOI 报了财，我看下来其实非常正面，和市场反应完全相反。 和所有 2027 年那种超高斜率前瞻成长公司一样： 大家不该只盯当前财报。 市场漏掉的关键点是： AOI 已经把 800G transceiver 的产能做到每月 10 万台。 而且管理层说，随着产能上线，Q3 开始会有明显更大的增长。 如果真看财务： non-GAAP 毛利率约 29.2% 营收约 1.511 亿美元，Q2 指引 1.8 亿到 1.98 亿美元。 我们已经从 Lumentum 的财报知道，这更多是产能瓶颈，不是需求瓶颈。只要能做出来，都会卖完。 这是一个前瞻成长故事，所以除了这些数字之外，更重要的是财报电话会里对 hyperscaler 需求和产能爬坡的说明。
英文原文
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies: Nobody should care about current financials. Key things market missed was: AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers. And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online" If you do look at financials: It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2. We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out. It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.