个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2479 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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宇树科技拟于19日上市，衍生品暗示开盘市值较IPO估值大涨363%。
正式确认，Unitree（宇树科技）这家在中国拥有8000倍+超额认购的人形机器人公司，预计将在2天后，即19日上市。衍生品暗示其开盘市值约为~416.6亿美元，较其~90亿美元的IPO估值高出约+363.3%。本周人形机器人领域真是有趣。
英文原文
It's official, Unitree the 8000x+ retail oversubscribed humanoid company in China. Is expected to go public in 2 days! So the 19th. Opening is implied to be around ~$41.66B MC per derivatives, around +363.3% above its ~$9B IPO valuation. Fun times for humanoids this week. https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO
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驳斥EWY含MLCC量高的观点，指出其核心为存储芯片。
@PumpCapitalLLC 这相当于一个白银段位的《英雄联盟》玩家告诉挑战者段位的玩家，幽灵点燃努努辅助是超模（OP）的。顺便提一下，$EWY 主要持仓是存储芯片，包括 SK 海力士和三星。你从中获得的 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）敞口微乎其微，如同蚂蚁般渺小。
英文原文
@PumpCapitalLLC This is the equivalent of a silver 2 league of legends player telling a challenger player that ghost ignite Nunu support is OP. btw $EWY is primarily memory with Sk Hynix + Samsung. The exposure you’re getting to MLCC is the size of an ant
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推荐关注在美上市但份额低于亚洲同行的$VSH和$KN。
@wannabepanacea 是的，正如另一条评论所说，$VSH 和 $KN 是两只值得关注的股票。虽然它们的市场份额远低于亚洲同行，但……它们在美国上市。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea Yeah as the other comment said $VSH and $KN are the two to look at. They have a lot less market share than their Asian counterparts, but... they're listed in the US
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华新科MLCC份额全球前四，供应失衡时弹性大于国巨。
@HenilPatel20864 华新科(2494)在全球多层陶瓷电容器(MLCC)市场份额中位居前四（我最近确实买入了一些以跟踪这一猜测的验证情况），其人工智能服务器相关业务占比似乎低于国巨(Yageo)和村田(Yuden)。 相对于国巨，其约45亿美元的市场规模意味着，如果MLCC供应失衡范围扩大，其弹性相对更大。 华新科的主要文件称其拥有“10%的全球MLCC份额”/“全球第四或第五”。
英文原文
@HenilPatel20864 Walsin (2494) is top 4 in the world in terms of overall MLCC marketshare (I actually added some recently to track how this guess plays out), with apparently less AI server related compared to Yaiyo Yuden. ~$4.5B MC relative to Yageo, so relatively higher exposure if MLCC supply imbalance broadens. There's primary Walsin document they state "10% global MLCC share" / "4th or 5th globally"
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Stripe 70 亿收购 OpenRouter，博主质疑其护城河但认可其数据优势。
据报道，Stripe 以 70 亿美元收购 OpenRouter。 我认为他们的编排层(Orchestration)很容易复制和切换，且几乎没有护城河(Moat)。 但目前，OpenRouter 拥有用户群、有价值的数据集以及势头。 你怎么看……对这家支付公司(Yay or Nay)？
英文原文
Stripe reportedly buys OpenRouter for $7 Billion. I think their orchestration is easy to replicate and switch from. And there's very little moat. But atm, OpenRouter has the userbase, valuable dataset, + momentum. What's your take... Yay or Nay for the payments firm? https://t.co/AqOlKlwCzc
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博主认同马斯克观点，预计特斯拉Optimus机器人形态将收敛于特定设计。
我认为@elonmusk说得很对：“机器人不必都是人形。但旨在替代人类劳动的通用机器人，应适应人类已构建的世界。收到，收到。”就我个人而言，我预计$TSLA Optimus的形态将收敛于右侧图片所示。
英文原文
I think @elonmusk said it best: “Robots don’t all need to be humanoid. But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built. Roger, roger.” Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59
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博主认为应跟随Nvidia指引，押注CPO及物理AI供应链。
我觉得AI投资比人们预期的更简单。因为$NVDA和Jensen几乎直接告诉大家未来是什么。但不知为何，几乎每次市场都要等到事情真正发生才认可？ 2025年的Nvidia：大量收购EML和激光产能。 市场当时嗤之以鼻：“光子学是泡沫，像量子计算一样！____公司是骗局，管理层可疑。” 一年后：$LITE +678%，$AAOI +475.12%，$COHR +260.7%，$AXTI +3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的Nvidia： 通过长期协议(LTA)大量收购CW/EML产能。转向800V。明确强调共封装光学(CPO)的转型。指出物理AI(Physical AI)是下一个主题。 市场现在：“CW玩家是 meme 股！800V和CPO短期内不会到来，人形机器人无利可图！” 嗯……我们看看2027年会发生什么。 我认为我会押注Jensen/Nvidia作为领先指标。
英文原文
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
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博主看好CCXI，因Unitree等中国IPO可能提振表现滞后的Agility。
@_stockResearch 我也非常喜欢 $CCXI。在它宣布消息时，我买入了大约该公司流通股的 0.25%-0.75%。我认为 Unitree IPO 和其他中国 IPO 应该会提振它，因为 Agility 相对于其预期开盘价表现滞后... https://t.co/o0GUaQtbh4
英文原文
@_stockResearch I also like really like $CCXI. I bought somewhere between .25-.75% of the company's float around the time it got announced. I think the Unitree IPO and other Chinese IPOs should give it a boost, since Agility has been a relative laggard to their expected open prices... https://t.co/o0GUaQtbh4
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AAOI销售ELSFP和1.6T光模块可提升混合毛利率。
@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI 在销售 ELSFP 和 1.6T 光模块时，混合毛利率会上升。
英文原文
@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI blended gross margins goes up when they sell ELSFP and 1.6T optical transceivers.
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AAOI若执行产能计划，营收有望接近LITE，但两者估值差距巨大。
@logeonli16 这完全由你决定。但我预计 $AAOI 在 2028 年上半年初的营收将接近，甚至可能有 20% 的概率超越 $LITE，前提是 AOI 能完全实现其产能预测。当你看到 $120 亿与约 $800 亿的估值对比时，这相当有趣（其中很大一部分是因为 Lumentum 拥有更好的利润率）。
英文原文
@logeonli16 It’s fully up to you. But I’m expecting $AAOI to get close or maybe a 20% chance to surpass $LITE in revenue early H1 2028 if AOI fully executes on capacity projections. Which is pretty interesting when you look at the $12B vs ~$80B valuations (lot of it is better margins for Lumentum)
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Reddit有望纳入标普500指数，股价看涨。
@demarscrypto $RDDT 标普500指数(Standard & Poor's 500) 纳入，一路狂飙。
英文原文
@demarscrypto $RDDT S&P 500 inclusion go brrr
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博主在财报日买入SMCI，认为CEO负面言论对股价影响有限。
@Highonstocks_ 是的，我个人在看到指引后，在财报发布当天买入了 $SMCI。毕竟，‘吹风机效应’（指CEO的负面言论）对股价的拖累应该也是有限度的，对吧？
英文原文
@Highonstocks_ Yeah I personally bought $SMCI on earnings day after I saw the guidance. At a certain point, hairdryers should only weigh down a stock so much right?
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POET获230万新订单，需等财报电话会确认。
@Papsytwinz 嗯，除了 $POET 新增的 230 万美元采购订单外，没什么特别有趣的消息。需要等待财报电话会议。
英文原文
@Papsytwinz Uhh nothing really too interesting aside from a new $2.3M purchase order for $POET Will need to wait for earnings call.
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分析SIVE、AAOI、POET三股在营收、产能及客户方面的不同瓶颈。
@SammmXBT 如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模云计算供应商 + 对 CW DFB（分布式反馈激光器）的需求可见性。市场希望如何为等待 2027 年上半年 1.6T 升级至 2027 年下半年 共封装光学(CPO) 规模化这一过程定价或赋予溢价？ $AAOI = 等待产能执行 对光模块的需求可见性极高。他们能否提升产能以满足每月 4.71 亿美元的预测？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值现金过多 + 供应链产能建设资金充足，但需求可见性很低。
英文原文
@SammmXBT If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.
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分析$POET高现金低EV及产能风险，认为其技术壁垒弱于$SIVE，属高风险博弈。
好吧，这是我的 $POET 观点，毕竟子版块里有人因为我建了小仓位而在庆祝。 - 我完全没头绪。真的零头绪。他们是怎么说服股东允许他们如此大幅稀释股权，以至于： 他们现在手头有荒谬的 ~8.3 亿美元现金。 而且我猜他们快完工了，因为如果还需要更多资金，我会难以置信。 所以现在……他们有 ~8.3 亿美元用于通过并购(M&A)等业务扩张，且企业价值(EV)最近真的降得很低（例如：12.5 亿美元市值 vs. 8.3 亿美元现金在手），我认为这值得冒个险。 - 2027 年年度产能目标为 1200 万台光学引擎，这个爬坡速度相当离谱。 需要深入研究 Poet 产品的平均售价(ASP)，但可能在 $125-$200？所以按 ~$150 ASP 算，收入天花板约 18 亿美元。 但他们现在有点像反向的 AAOI：没有可见的需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens，它现在是一家估值很高的超大规模供应商（可能是亚马逊或微软），拥有数十亿美元的客户协议。 有趣的是，如果 Poet 利用资产负债表与三菱等玩家签署了预付 EML 协议，或与 Sivers 签署了 CW 协议。 鉴于当前的瓶颈，玩家可能会利用 Poet 作为采购供应的变通方案。 但基本上，你拥有一家超级现金充裕、大量产能即将上线的公司。而且凭借他们的财务状况，他们不会很快消失。 我不太认为其技术护城河能像上游激光瓶颈那样具有防御性，比如 $SIVE 在 CW 激光器与 OE 封装方面的技术壁垒。正如你最近看到的 Celestial 和 Poet 的情况。 但也许……未来某个时候会有超大规模企业或下游公司宣布批量协议，$POET 随之起飞。而且他们确实具备爬坡的供应链布局。 这是我最终承担的风险，但它不像 $AAOI 那样对我来说是显而易见的长期看好。
英文原文
Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.
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IQE论点获验证，债务清零且获大厂订单，作者继续持有看多。
感觉今年2月我对 $IQE 的论点连同 $AXTI 等一起得到了验证。（我目前仍持有两者的多头头寸） 所以我减少了对它们的覆盖。但简而言之，更新如下： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于它的论点时，IQE 是光学供应链中一个陷入困境但关键的瓶颈环节，与 $LITE 等公司有关联。 自那以来： - $MTSI 签署了长期外延晶圆供应协议，并入股该公司，现在 IQE 已无银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签署了磷化铟(InP)外延晶圆协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 族外延晶圆供应” - IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中仍在展开的部分是 IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以匹配该领域的同行如 Landmark（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，略多于一年的时间）。 还有一些国家安全层面的含义，我将避免谈论，但这使它们更加重要。 但基本上： 2025财年营收：9730万英镑 2026财年指引：超过1.265亿英镑 它们在光学领域再次快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。 现在……随着与领先光子学公司的新协议带来营收增长，以及像 Macom 这样的玩家充当软性后盾。 通常在论点得到验证后，我只是坐享企业的增长。
英文原文
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
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博主兴奋于COHR财报影响，将发帖。
@LightLogix 是的，现在正在看 $COHR 的财报，对其带来的影响感到非常兴奋，稍后会发帖。
英文原文
@LightLogix Yeah looking at $COHR earnings now, pretty excited about the implications, will post soon
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AI财报强劲，空头被迫认输离场。
@mikealfred 空头们在看到了从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 的所有人工智能财报后，又要回去冬眠了。
英文原文
@mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.
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尽管积压订单充足，但高额利息侵蚀现金流，持续看空Coreweave。
@R42t0r 自去年以来，我一直非常明确地看空 $CRWV，相较于 $NBIS 和其他新云厂商。需求并非真正的问题，其超1000亿美元的积压订单，营收及59%的调整后EBITDA利润率看起来不错。但潜在的融资方式真的很糟糕……Coreweave的债务利息（例如Q2利息支出达6.4亿美元）过度侵蚀了自由现金流……作为参考，该数字约占Coreweave 15.1亿美元调整后EBITDA的42%。
英文原文
@R42t0r I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
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NBIS 业绩超预期，需求可见度极高，电力指引上调，看多。
$NBIS 的前景再次令人难以置信。 营收 5.823 亿美元（同比 +454%，环比 +46%），AI 云业务调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率约 50%。手头现金 80.4 亿美元。 重申财务指引（2026 年营收：30-34 亿美元；2026 年底年度经常性收入 ARR：70-90 亿美元），我原本希望会上调指引，但这已经是巨大的增长了。 重点不在于本季度财务数据，而是这些信号： - “我们今天就能以这些条款卖出 2027 年的全部产能。”需求可见度极高。 - “4 份客户协议，每份合同价值平均超过 10 亿美元。” - 约 70% 的 Q2 交易包含客户预付款。 - 签约电力指引再次上调，从约 4+ GW 升至 5 GW。（这曾是相对于 $IREN 辩论中的担忧点，但 Nebius 的电力指引持续飙升）。 - 预计 2026 年预付款超过 90 亿美元，并表示拥有超过 400 亿美元的承诺订单。 - 每兆瓦年度合同价值持续飙升（Q3 短期容量交易 >4000 万美元/兆瓦）。 看空故事依然存在（例如 56.6 亿美元的高资本支出和当前 GAAP 净亏损），但需求极度强劲且可见度极高，AI 云调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率持续提升（24% -> 45% -> 50% 的演进）。 我们昨天通过各大超大规模云厂商 (Hyperscaler) 的财报和 $CRWV 的积压订单已经大致看透了这一点，很高兴在 Weebius（应为 Nebius 笔误）的财报中看到印证。
英文原文
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
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AEHR获AI处理器大厂追加订单，盘前涨5.39%。
$AEHR 获得其领先的 AI 处理器公司追加的 2200 万美元 AI 处理器晶圆级老化测试系统订单。看到这家小公司在众多垂直领域（内存、硅光子学等）如此快速成长，感觉很酷。消息公布后盘前上涨 5.39%。
英文原文
$AEHR receives another $22M follow on order for AI processor wafer level burn in systems. By their lead AI processor company. It’s cool to see this tiny company grow up so fast across so many verticals (memory, silicon photonics, etc). Up +5.39% premarket off the news. https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
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SIVE 早期客户成功，具备收购潜力，但光模块同行缺乏困境资产。
@tontonborland @Sofigoodboy 我很确定 $SIVE 在早期就拥有 Lightmatter、Celestial、Lightelligence 和 Ayar 等客户。这些公司起初规模很小，最终都成长为估值超 40 亿美元的巨头。因此我相信他们很清楚如何处理有前景的私有公司收购案。除了可能市值约 2 亿美元的 OE Solutions 外，几乎没有提供光收发器设计的困境公开公司，但我不确定他们在 800G/1.6T 可插拔模块方面的进展如何。
英文原文
@tontonborland @Sofigoodboy Pretty sure $SIVE had Lightmatter, Celestial, Lightelligence, and Ayar as customers way early on before. And they all ended up ~4B+ companies after starting off small. So I'm sure they know what to do with promising private company acquisitions. There's not really much distressed public companies that offer optical transceiver designs other than maybe OE Solutions I think around ~$200m, but not sure how their progress is going with 800g/1.6T pluggables.
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AAOI产能专供自产光模块，需求缺口大，利好股价。
@x4tsr 不，因为 $AAOI 表示其稀缺产能将内部专用于生产自有的 800G/1.6T 光收发器(Optical Transceivers)。他们称，即使所有产能全部投产，仍会出现 20-40% 的需求缺口。需求旺盛导致无法扩展至新产品线，这并非坏事。
英文原文
@x4tsr No, because $AAOI said that their scarce capacity is dedicated internally toward making their own 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Which they said would be a 20-40% demand imbalance even if all their capacity come online. It's not a bad thing to have too much demand, that you can't expand to new product lines.
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反驳对SIVE的质疑，强调其IP模式独特性及在CPO领域的长期潜力。
@Malinrec - 因为新一代 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T optical transceivers)和共封装光学(CPO)的出货量尚未爬坡。$SIVE 正瞄准所有下一代光学变革。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署始于 2028 年，你不可能在 2024 年获得 9 位数收入。 - $SIVE 拥有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错，其中 1/4 到 1/3 是博士。 他们做的很多是知识产权(IP)，并使用 Win Semi 和外部晶圆厂进行量产爬坡。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，你会看到员工数量激增。 不太明白为什么你说一个向 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 和许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是毫无希望的案例。 这可能是我见过的最独特的案例之一。
英文原文
@Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
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SIVE有望复刻LITE路径，需并购及纳斯达克上市以扩大规模。
@Berlinergy 我说 $LITE 在2-3年内从30亿增长到600亿+，尤其是由于2023年底收购Cloud Light，使总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大了5倍以上。因为他们最初是从EML激光器/光组件的瓶颈环节起步的，后来通过并购发展。$SIVE 有潜力从CW激光器瓶颈环节起步，实现同样的增长。但这需要类似在可插拔模块或光引擎/ELS方面进行成功的并购。如果它们想达到类似的规模，就需要从像 $AAOI 这样的成品光模块中获取更多收入。而我的观点是，纳斯达克上市对于解锁更多资金来实现这一点是必要的。
英文原文
@Berlinergy I said $LITE went from $3b to $60B+ over a 2-3 year timeframe, especially due from Cloud Light acquisition in late 2023, that multiplied TAM by 5x+. Since they started off in the EML laser / optical component chokepoint originally before M&A. $SIVE has the potential to do the same starting off in the CW laser chokepoint. But it does require something like a successful M&A down pluggables or optical engines/ELS. To capture more revenue off things like completed transceivers $AAOI, if they want to get to a similar scale. And my take was NASDAQ listing is necessary to unlock more funding to do so.
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Serenity基金计划买入SIVE和AAOI各六分之一。
@MaxChua16 Serenity 意识基金本会买入 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 的 1/6。
英文原文
@MaxChua16 The Serenity Awarness Fund would have bought 1/6th of $SIVE and $AAOI
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情境感知大举买入太阳诱电六分之一股份，引发关注。
传奇人物，情境感知(Situational Awareness)买下了太阳诱电(Taiyo Yuden)整个公司的六分之一。看到这一幕展开真是相当疯狂。
英文原文
What a legend, Situational Awareness bought 1/6th of the entire company of Taiyo Yuden. Pretty wild to see this unfolding. https://t.co/nBQW5DOZ5f
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博主因太诱电工是MLCC龙头且获机构重仓，今日加仓支持。
我原本不知道 Leopold 也是太诱电工 (6976) 这位多层陶瓷电容器 (MLCC) 瓶颈投资者。今天披露显示，Situational Awareness 截至 6 月 29 日持有该公司 5.99% 的股份，平均成本约为每股 17,446 日元。当前股价为 9,797 日元。我今天实际上加仓了一些以表示支持，因为太诱电工是全球占比最大的 MLCC 制造商之一。
英文原文
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976) It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th. Current prices are ¥9,797. I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.
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SMCI营收指引强劲应获重估，但利润率指引不明令人遗憾。
@PatientGS 不，$SMCI 给出了 2027 年的爆炸性预测，其约 700 亿美元的营收指引相对于其 200 亿美元的市场资本化(Market Cap)而言非常惊人。 我仍然认为它应该获得重估(Rerate)。只是有点恼火，我无法得到关于利润率估算(Margin Estimates)的明确答案。
英文原文
@PatientGS Nah, $SMCI gave blowout projections for 2027 with that ~$70B revenue guidance relative to their $20B MC. I still think it should get rerated. Just a bit annoying I couldn’t get clear answers for margin estimates.
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嘲讽SMCI CEO在财报中回避关键财务问题
Charles 兄弟，$SMCI 的 CEO 得去从政了。我从未见过有人在财报问答环节如此多地回避问题。- “你们 2027 年的毛利率是多少？”答：“我们期待实现增长。”- “你们预计 9 月份毛利率会改善吗？”答：“9 月。哪个 9 月？”
英文原文
Bro Charles the $SMCI CEO needs to become a politician. I’ve never seen a guy dodge so many questions on a Q&A earnings transcript before. - “what’s your 2027 gross margins” A: “we look forward to growing them - “do you anticipate margins to improve September?” A: September. Which is September?