$OUST
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众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.
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AEVA凭借确定性速度数据优势，降低世界模型计算负载。
世界*模型。显然，如果世界上最先进的世界模型需要多普勒级别的精度，与$OUST相比，$AEVA是少数能做到这一点的公司之一？如果你给Cosmos提供“概率性”深度数据（来自$OUST），模型必须消耗大量计算周期来计算物体的移动位置。$AEVA直接输入确定性速度数据。“如果模型必须从连续深度帧中推断运动，那比直接接收速度作为输入需要更多的计算。”
英文原文
World* models. Apparently if the world's most advanced World Models require Doppler-level precision, $AEVA is one of the only companies that can do it compared to companies to $OUST here? If you give Cosmos "probabilistic" depth data (from $OUST ) the model has to spend massive amounts of compute cycles calculating where things are moving. $AEVA just feeds in deterministic velocity data. “If a model has to infer motion from sequential depth frames, that’s additional computation versus receiving velocity as a direct input”
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对比OUST与AEVA技术路线，探讨OUST作为4D AI投资标的的逻辑。
显然，$OUST 更偏向于“概率性 AI (Probabilistic AI)”，而 $AEVA 的调频连续波(FMCW)技术解决的是词元模型(word models)所需的确定性物理 AI (Deterministic Physical AI)。 “FMCW 通过多普勒频移直接提供速度这一物理测量值，而飞行时间(ToF)技术则需要跨帧进行计算推导”。 也许你可以帮忙阐述一下 $OUST 的细微差别，以及为什么你认为它是更好的 4D AI 投资标的。
英文原文
Apparently $OUST sits more in “Probabilistic AI”while $AEVA FMCW solves the Deterministic Physical AI that word models need “FMCW gives velocity as a direct physical measurement (Doppler shift) versus ToF requiring computational derivation across frames”. Maybe you can help articulate the nuance with $OUST and why you think it’s better exposure to 4D AI
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看好4D AI趋势，建仓$AEVA作为中游瓶颈的投机性敞口。
说到像 $AXTI 这样的其他瓶颈环节。 我一直在研究 4D AI。 与行业内部人士的交谈让我相信，继 $NVDA 黄仁勋的会议后，物理 AI 和人形机器人的“世界模型(World Models)”是一个即将到来的趋势。 因此我建仓了从事 4D 激光雷达(4D LiDAR)的 $AEVA。 根据我的研究，这看起来是该趋势中最清晰的功能性中游瓶颈敞口？ 除非有人想提及其他标的。 还有像 $AMBA、$U（是的，是游戏软件）、$TER 和 $OUST 这样的公司，但它们体量较大，且敞口不够清晰。 话虽如此，这仍是一个新领域，所以我仍在进行研究。此外，基本面尚不稳定，因此这更多是对行业增长的创投型押注。 披露：我仅持有 $AEVA 的多头头寸，作为对 4D AI 及物理 AI 世界模型的投机性敞口。
英文原文
Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI. I’ve been looking into 4D AI. Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference. So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? Unless someone has others they’d like to mention. There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure. That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth. Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.
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梳理机器人供应链瓶颈，看好TKR、SYSS等美国本土替代标的。
波士顿动力/Optimus/机器人供应链摘要(TLDR)： - $ALGM ($65亿) 电机/传感 (Optimus) - $NOVT ($47亿) 反馈 (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($65亿) 电源 (Atlas) - $OUST ($16.4亿) 激光雷达(LiDAR) (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($27亿) - 芯片 (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($8.12亿) - 碳化硅(SiC)测试 (t2) - $RRX ($105亿) - 关节 (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($65.3亿) - 谐波应变 (t2) - $MP ($118.2亿) - 钕镨磁铁 (t3) - $LSCC ($116亿) - 传感器融合FPGA (t3) 我个人的持仓： - $SYSS ($9.98亿) - 骨架 (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($7.01亿) - 视觉 (T2) 在OpenAI昨日推进机器人业务后，我研究了这些公司，并想以摘要格式分享发现。 再次强调，机器人原始设备制造商(OEM)通常不公布物料清单(BOM)，因此大多数已确认，部分未确认但通过交叉引用公开资料极可能属实。 但我们应看到机器人行业在2026-2027年迎来拐点。 思考： - 哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive Systems, 6324.T)。我此前将其视为领导者，但他们刚被中国Leaderdrive以40%更低成本复制技术所颠覆。 - 基于此，$TKR (美国)可能是最具“超额收益(alpha)”的标的，因为通过收购Cone Drive，他们成为相对于哈默纳科/Leaderdrive的主要美国谐波齿轮供应商。 - $AMBA和$VICR可能是我在美国供应链中发现的除$SYSS外最有趣的标的。 - 我选择$SYSS作为机器人瓶颈敞口的首选，因为他们是每个量产人形机器人的骨架/材料（例如已知用户包括波士顿动力Atlas），且拥有有效的美国认证垄断地位。 - $LPTH碰巧也是机器人瓶颈敞口，因为我购买它也是出于对国防部/军事瓶颈敞口的考虑。 这些只是美国大规模量产中“雷达下”的标的。除了两个持仓外，我不持有其他任何标的，但我仍在研究它们。 不幸的是，许多供应链如$TSLA的执行器（与三花智控的6.85亿美元订单）仍在中国。但我预计许多将回流美国，因此仍在寻找供应链BOM方面的超额收益。 如果我遗漏了任何标的，欢迎补充。
英文原文
Boston Dynamics/Optimus/Robotic supply chains TLDR: - $ALGM ($6.5B) motor/sensing (Optimus) - $NOVT ($4.7B) feedback (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($6.5B) power (Atlas) - $OUST ($1.64B) LiDAR (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($2.7B) - Chips (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($812m) - SiC Test (t2) - $RRX ($10.5B) - Joints (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($6.53B) - Harmonic Strain (t2) - $MP ($11.82B) - NdPr magnets (t3) - $LSCC ($11.6B) - Sensor Fusion FPGAs (t3) I'm personally in: - $SYSS ($998M) - Skeleton (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($701M) - Vision (T2) Was researching these companies after OpenAI's push into robotics yesterday and wanted to do a TLDR format of findings. Again, robotics OEMs generally don't publish BOMs, so most of these are confirmed but some are unconfirmed but very likely from cross-referencing public findings. But we should see an inflection point for robotics going into 2026-2027. Thoughts: - Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T). Was tracking this as the leader but they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost. - Based on this, $TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing vs. Harmonic Drive / Leaderdrive. - $AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains. - I picked $SYSS as my choice for robotics bottleneck exposure since they're the skeletons/materials for each humanoid on scale up (eg. with Boston Dynamics Atlas as known users) and effective US certification monopoly. - $LPTH happened to be a coincidental Robotics bottleneck exposure since I bought this for DoD/military bottleneck exposure too . These are just the "under the radar ones" in the US for the mass production scale-up. Don't own any of them aside from two, but I'm still looking into them. Unfortunately many supply chains like $TSLA's actuators ($685M order with Sanhua) are still in China. But I expect many of them to flow back to the US, so still looking for alpha in terms of supply chain BOM. If I missed any feel free to mention others.
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询问对方对OUST是否有独立投资逻辑
@GyratingH 你对 $OUST 有具体的投资论点(Thesis)吗？还是只是想听听我对它的看法
英文原文
@GyratingH Did you have a thesis for $OUST? Or did you just want my opinion on it