$LSCC
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.
-
梳理机器人供应链瓶颈，看好TKR、SYSS等美国本土替代标的。
波士顿动力/Optimus/机器人供应链摘要(TLDR)： - $ALGM ($65亿) 电机/传感 (Optimus) - $NOVT ($47亿) 反馈 (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($65亿) 电源 (Atlas) - $OUST ($16.4亿) 激光雷达(LiDAR) (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($27亿) - 芯片 (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($8.12亿) - 碳化硅(SiC)测试 (t2) - $RRX ($105亿) - 关节 (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($65.3亿) - 谐波应变 (t2) - $MP ($118.2亿) - 钕镨磁铁 (t3) - $LSCC ($116亿) - 传感器融合FPGA (t3) 我个人的持仓： - $SYSS ($9.98亿) - 骨架 (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($7.01亿) - 视觉 (T2) 在OpenAI昨日推进机器人业务后，我研究了这些公司，并想以摘要格式分享发现。 再次强调，机器人原始设备制造商(OEM)通常不公布物料清单(BOM)，因此大多数已确认，部分未确认但通过交叉引用公开资料极可能属实。 但我们应看到机器人行业在2026-2027年迎来拐点。 思考： - 哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive Systems, 6324.T)。我此前将其视为领导者，但他们刚被中国Leaderdrive以40%更低成本复制技术所颠覆。 - 基于此，$TKR (美国)可能是最具“超额收益(alpha)”的标的，因为通过收购Cone Drive，他们成为相对于哈默纳科/Leaderdrive的主要美国谐波齿轮供应商。 - $AMBA和$VICR可能是我在美国供应链中发现的除$SYSS外最有趣的标的。 - 我选择$SYSS作为机器人瓶颈敞口的首选，因为他们是每个量产人形机器人的骨架/材料（例如已知用户包括波士顿动力Atlas），且拥有有效的美国认证垄断地位。 - $LPTH碰巧也是机器人瓶颈敞口，因为我购买它也是出于对国防部/军事瓶颈敞口的考虑。 这些只是美国大规模量产中“雷达下”的标的。除了两个持仓外，我不持有其他任何标的，但我仍在研究它们。 不幸的是，许多供应链如$TSLA的执行器（与三花智控的6.85亿美元订单）仍在中国。但我预计许多将回流美国，因此仍在寻找供应链BOM方面的超额收益。 如果我遗漏了任何标的，欢迎补充。
英文原文
Boston Dynamics/Optimus/Robotic supply chains TLDR: - $ALGM ($6.5B) motor/sensing (Optimus) - $NOVT ($4.7B) feedback (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($6.5B) power (Atlas) - $OUST ($1.64B) LiDAR (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($2.7B) - Chips (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($812m) - SiC Test (t2) - $RRX ($10.5B) - Joints (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($6.53B) - Harmonic Strain (t2) - $MP ($11.82B) - NdPr magnets (t3) - $LSCC ($11.6B) - Sensor Fusion FPGAs (t3) I'm personally in: - $SYSS ($998M) - Skeleton (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($701M) - Vision (T2) Was researching these companies after OpenAI's push into robotics yesterday and wanted to do a TLDR format of findings. Again, robotics OEMs generally don't publish BOMs, so most of these are confirmed but some are unconfirmed but very likely from cross-referencing public findings. But we should see an inflection point for robotics going into 2026-2027. Thoughts: - Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T). Was tracking this as the leader but they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost. - Based on this, $TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing vs. Harmonic Drive / Leaderdrive. - $AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains. - I picked $SYSS as my choice for robotics bottleneck exposure since they're the skeletons/materials for each humanoid on scale up (eg. with Boston Dynamics Atlas as known users) and effective US certification monopoly. - $LPTH happened to be a coincidental Robotics bottleneck exposure since I bought this for DoD/military bottleneck exposure too . These are just the "under the radar ones" in the US for the mass production scale-up. Don't own any of them aside from two, but I'm still looking into them. Unfortunately many supply chains like $TSLA's actuators ($685M order with Sanhua) are still in China. But I expect many of them to flow back to the US, so still looking for alpha in terms of supply chain BOM. If I missed any feel free to mention others.
-
指出$VLN因数据错误被算法低估，实为高毛利AI芯片股，建议手动建模验证。
Valens 在 $2.5 的价格看起来存在极端的错误定价。 所谓的 -8200 万美元库存消耗（Inventory Burn）是一个巨大的数据错误，很可能是由于 $VLN 和 $VLN 多伦多股票代码冲突（Ticker Collision）导致的。 散户投资者已经提前发现了这个 Alpha（超额收益机会）。 然而，算法尚未察觉，因为它们仍在基于 -8200 万美元的消耗建模负企业价值（Negative EV）（这需要人工修正）。 鼓励大家从 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器上发布的财务数据中，对以下所有信息进行事实核查，特别是关于 -8200 万美元的错误。 $VLN 因其 2.55 亿美元的市场规模而被严重误解。 这并非因为公司质量，也绝对不是某种“拉高出货”的中国仙股。而是由于算法定价在 -8200 万美元消耗导致的一年内跑道（Runway）不足而受到的人为压制。 这是一家被极度错误定价的 AI 和机器人无晶圆厂（Fabless）芯片制造商，拥有： - 梅赛德斯 - 三星 - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - 西门子 - Logitech 以及许多其他领先的 OEM 和机器人公司作为客户。 $VLN 拥有： - 零债务。 - 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 约 8000 万美元以上的预计远期收入。 - 其机器人/机器视觉/工业垂直领域的毛利率为 69.1%（同比增长 40%）。汽车板块的混合毛利率将其拉低至 63.0%。 如果你想比较类似的公司： - Lattice $LSCC 交易在约 19 倍和 23 倍 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入比）。 - Macom $MTSI，交易在约 13 倍和 16.5 倍 EV/Revenue。 Valens 的交易价格为： 2.4 倍。这看起来像是一个故障（Glitch）。 即使是非溢价、毛利率 20-30% 的公司，交易倍数也在 4-5 倍。 我们现在看到一家拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的无晶圆厂芯片制造商，在机器人机器视觉到 AI 汽车领域存在极端的错误定价。 最后一点： 我鼓励每个人根据财务数据自己做估值建模。 然后对 -8200 万美元的错误进行尽职调查。 也许你会得出与我相同的结论，即在 $2.5 时存在极端的错误定价。 你拥有一家无债务、拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的机器人/AI 领域无晶圆厂芯片制造商，拥有 Tier-1 客户，但由于技术报告错误而以困境倍数交易。 这可能是历史上散户发现的最罕见时刻之一。
英文原文
Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5. The -$82M inventory burn was a massive data error, likely from ticker collision between $VLN and $VLN Toronto. Retail has found out about the alpha early. Yet algorithms have not caught on yet, as they're still modeling negative EV from -$82M burn (this requires manual correction). Everyone is encouraged to fact check everything below from financials posted to -$82M error on Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners. $VLN is heavily misunderstood due to its $255M market cap size. This is not due to company quality and it's definitely not some pump and dump Chinese penny stock. But an artificial suppression from algorithmic pricing in <1Y runway from $82m burn. This is a extremely mispriced AI & Robotics fabless chipmaker with: - Mercedes - Samsung - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - Siemens - Logitch and many other leading OEMs and Robotics companies as customers. $VLN has - Zero Debt. - $93.5 Million Cash and $11M+ in Inventory - $11 Million + in inventory. - ~$80M+ est. forward revenue - 69.1% gross margins on their robotics/machine vision/industrial vertical (growing 40% Y/Y). Blended margins from their automotive segment brings it down to 63.0%. If you want to compare similar companies: - Lattice $LSCC trades around 19x and 23x EV/Revenue. - Macom $MTSI, trades around 13x and 16.5x. EV/Revenue. Valens trades at: 2.4x. Which looks like a glitch. Even non-premium, 20-30% gross margin, companies trade at 4-5x. We now see an extreme mispricing of a $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in verticals for machine vision in robotics to AI automotive sectors. Final Point: I encourage everyone to do valuation modeling themselves from the financial data. And then do due diligence on the -$82M error. Maybe you'll come to the same conclusion that I did regarding the extreme mispricing at $2.5. You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error. This might be one of the rarest moments in history retail has discovered.