$BOT
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批评BOT以高估值持有非流动资产并叠加20亿美元有效ATM，散户成退出流动性。
我不确定怎么会有人觉得以7.5亿美元市值买入 $BOT 中价值1.45亿美元、经常低于 NAV 交易的非流动资产是个好主意。 即使下跌37%后，它仍然约4.9亿美元市值。 除此之外，人们还在买入一个通过股权融资工具缓慢滴灌的20亿美元有效 ATM。 散户不仅提供了： > 退出流动性。 > 而且是在极度膨胀估值下提供退出流动性。 > 同时在有效 ATM 提交后，把自己买入的东西财富转移给公司。 也许基金有良好意图，但在当前估值下： 如果你是散户投资者，你基本上是在用流通盘玩金字塔烫手山芋。
英文原文
I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV. For $750M MC. Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC. On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility. Retail not only gave: > Exit liquidity. > But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations > While wealth transferring whatever you buy over after the effective ATM got filed. Maybe the fund had good intentions, but at current valuations: If you are a retail investor, you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float.
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批评BOT仍以4倍NAV交易且有20亿美元有效ATM，Figure敞口估值过高。
$BOT 即使下跌21%后，仍以4倍 NAV 交易。 还有20亿美元有效 ATM。 所以现在它基于1.46亿美元私人资产，市值约6亿美元。 在这些资产中，它们持有约3700万美元 Figure。 而你本质上是在以1600亿美元估值买 Figure，尽管领先人形机器人制造商 Unitree IPO 估值只有60亿美元。 所以，仅仅因为一个1.46亿美元私人基金上市，并不意味着应该发生数十亿美元散户财富转移？ 也许基金有良好意图？ 但在20亿美元股权融资工具之后，当已经存在估值/NAV 断层时，这个举动看起来很掠夺。
英文原文
$BOT is still trading at 4x NAV. With a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM. Even after the 21% drop. So now it’s ~$600M MC, off $146M in private assets. Then off those assets, they own ~$37M of Figure. Which you’re essentially buying at $160B valuations while the leading humanoid maker in Unitree is IPOing at $6B. So just because a $146m private fund went public doesn’t mean there should be a multi-billion dollar retail wealth transfer? Maybe the fund had good intentions? But idk after the $2B equity financing facility, that move just seems predatory when there’s already a valuation NAV disconnect.
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指出 BOT 的 NAV 与股价严重脱节
$BOT 是最明显的红旗。 NAV 是每股 7.34 美元，而现在股价是 37.92 美元。 你基本上是在按 2000 亿美元以上的估值买 Figure，而它自己只值 390 亿美元。 买这个公司，本质上是在买别人的浮筹博弈，而不是买成长或基本面。 更糟的是，还有 20 亿美元的稀释在继续发生，等于是大家被一路稀释到看不见。 很多基金经理会私信像我这样的意见领袖，但现实里： 散户看起来就是退出流动性。
英文原文
$BOT is the biggest red flag. NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92. You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B. Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail. Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals. To make matters worse: There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion. I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality: Retail just looks like exit liquidity.
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众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.