2026-01-16 · 供应链分析

梳理机器人供应链瓶颈，看好TKR、SYSS等美国本土替代标的。

涉及标的： $AEHR $ALGM $AMBA $LPTH $LSCC $MP $NOVT $OUST $RRX $SYSS $TKR $TSLA $VICR

中文翻译

波士顿动力/Optimus/机器人供应链摘要(TLDR)： - $ALGM ($65亿) 电机/传感 (Optimus) - $NOVT ($47亿) 反馈 (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($65亿) 电源 (Atlas) - $OUST ($16.4亿) 激光雷达(LiDAR) (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($27亿) - 芯片 (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($8.12亿) - 碳化硅(SiC)测试 (t2) - $RRX ($105亿) - 关节 (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($65.3亿) - 谐波应变 (t2) - $MP ($118.2亿) - 钕镨磁铁 (t3) - $LSCC ($116亿) - 传感器融合FPGA (t3) 我个人的持仓： - $SYSS ($9.98亿) - 骨架 (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($7.01亿) - 视觉 (T2) 在OpenAI昨日推进机器人业务后，我研究了这些公司，并想以摘要格式分享发现。再次强调，机器人原始设备制造商(OEM)通常不公布物料清单(BOM)，因此大多数已确认，部分未确认但通过交叉引用公开资料极可能属实。但我们应看到机器人行业在2026-2027年迎来拐点。思考： - 哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive Systems, 6324.T)。我此前将其视为领导者，但他们刚被中国Leaderdrive以40%更低成本复制技术所颠覆。 - 基于此，$TKR (美国)可能是最具“超额收益(alpha)”的标的，因为通过收购Cone Drive，他们成为相对于哈默纳科/Leaderdrive的主要美国谐波齿轮供应商。 - $AMBA和$VICR可能是我在美国供应链中发现的除$SYSS外最有趣的标的。 - 我选择$SYSS作为机器人瓶颈敞口的首选，因为他们是每个量产人形机器人的骨架/材料（例如已知用户包括波士顿动力Atlas），且拥有有效的美国认证垄断地位。 - $LPTH碰巧也是机器人瓶颈敞口，因为我购买它也是出于对国防部/军事瓶颈敞口的考虑。这些只是美国大规模量产中“雷达下”的标的。除了两个持仓外，我不持有其他任何标的，但我仍在研究它们。不幸的是，许多供应链如$TSLA的执行器（与三花智控的6.85亿美元订单）仍在中国。但我预计许多将回流美国，因此仍在寻找供应链BOM方面的超额收益。如果我遗漏了任何标的，欢迎补充。

英文原文

Boston Dynamics/Optimus/Robotic supply chains TLDR: - $ALGM ($6.5B) motor/sensing (Optimus) - $NOVT ($4.7B) feedback (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($6.5B) power (Atlas) - $OUST ($1.64B) LiDAR (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($2.7B) - Chips (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($812m) - SiC Test (t2) - $RRX ($10.5B) - Joints (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($6.53B) - Harmonic Strain (t2) - $MP ($11.82B) - NdPr magnets (t3) - $LSCC ($11.6B) - Sensor Fusion FPGAs (t3) I'm personally in: - $SYSS ($998M) - Skeleton (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($701M) - Vision (T2) Was researching these companies after OpenAI's push into robotics yesterday and wanted to do a TLDR format of findings. Again, robotics OEMs generally don't publish BOMs, so most of these are confirmed but some are unconfirmed but very likely from cross-referencing public findings. But we should see an inflection point for robotics going into 2026-2027. Thoughts: - Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T). Was tracking this as the leader but they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost. - Based on this, $TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing vs. Harmonic Drive / Leaderdrive. - $AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains. - I picked $SYSS as my choice for robotics bottleneck exposure since they're the skeletons/materials for each humanoid on scale up (eg. with Boston Dynamics Atlas as known users) and effective US certification monopoly. - $LPTH happened to be a coincidental Robotics bottleneck exposure since I bought this for DoD/military bottleneck exposure too . These are just the "under the radar ones" in the US for the mass production scale-up. Don't own any of them aside from two, but I'm still looking into them. Unfortunately many supply chains like $TSLA's actuators ($685M order with Sanhua) are still in China. But I expect many of them to flow back to the US, so still looking for alpha in terms of supply chain BOM. If I missed any feel free to mention others.

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