个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 5 / 45 页
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IBKR 目前强于 HOOD
现在确实是 $IBKR > $HOOD。 我也认为 Robinhood 有机会扭转局面……他们的界面更好，也更偏零售用户。 但就目前执行而言（取消期权的 payment for order flow）以及缺少国际业务，真的糟透了，所以目前显然还是 Interactive Brokers 更好。
英文原文
It’s true $IBKR > $HOOD currently. I do think Robinhood has the potential to turn that around though… they have a better UI and more retail-friendly platform. But just current execution (remove payment order flow for options) and lack of int. offerings is horrendous, so interactive brokers is clearly the better choice atm.
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HOOD 错过国际市场红利
是啊，国际市场本来就是 $HOOD 最明显的增长方向。 但他们错过了亚洲 / 欧盟股票当前这波巨大的上涨，因为他们太专注于预测市场和币上币。 现在还不算太晚，但他们现在的目标到底是什么，真的很奇怪。
英文原文
Yeah, international markets was the most obvious growth vector for $HOOD. Yet they missed out on the current massive run for Asian/EU equities because they focused too heavily on prediction markets and coin listings. Still not too late, but it’s very strange what their goals are now.
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HOOD 产品创新方向跑偏
$HOOD 真正该做的产品创新，本来应该是尽快支持国际股票交易。 结果他们反而加码“预测市场” + “抽奖” + 一堆新烂币上架，让散户乱七八糟地亏钱。 他们还把零售用户输给了 $IBKR，而后者现在已经支持韩国股票交易了。 尤其是受到台湾、韩国、欧洲、日本等国际股票增长的推动。 结果，这个季度 IBKR 新账户数量创了历史新高（这是基于我自己的定性体验）。 我认为 $HOOD 这次财报不及预期，是因为他们搞错了自己真正该帮助散户做什么。 如果他们能让散户大量交易国际股票，赚更多交易费、更多保证金使用、更多平台留存现金和财富增长等等，这才是这个平台的基础。 即便数字资产下行，事情也许本可以更好。
英文原文
Product innovation from $HOOD would have been enabling international stock trading ASAP. Instead they doubled down on "prediction markets" + "raffles" + new crapcoin listings where retail recklessly lose their money. They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading. Especially due to international stock growth from Taiwah, Korea, Europe, Japan. As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter (just from qualitative experiences). My opinion is $HOOD missed earnings since they lost track of what they should actually do to help out retail investors. If they had retail investors all spending tons of TX fees from int. Equities trading, likely more margin usage, fees, cash on platform, wealth appreciation, and so on, which is the basis of the platform. Maybe things would have gone better despite digital asset downturn.
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SIVE 不打算卖
我的意思是，$SIVE 是一只我不打算卖出的股票。 光子学的 TAM 对 AI、机器人、消费电子硬件（比如 $AAPL）和太空领域来说都大得离谱…… 而且 Sivers 正好站在下一代架构的最前沿，也是少数几家公开交易的龙头之一，另外两家大概是 $LITE 和 $COHR。 再加上下游 IP 收购，TAM 扩张也会非常大。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling. Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space... And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR. TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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增发还卖给了套利基金
@kwongny 这大概和剩下那部分股份出售给可转债套利基金有关。起初我还以为只卖给了 $MTSI，但文件里还有一笔卖给了现有投资者。
英文原文
@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.
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LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一
@snmart $LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一。我一直很喜欢新赛道里的功能性垄断，比如玻璃基板。
英文原文
@snmart $LPK is one of my favorite names, I tend to be a fan of functional monopolies in new sectors like glass substrates.
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MTSI 进来后长期更看多
@Mellokhai 这是个比较细腻的看法：长期看多，尤其是 $MTSI 作为投资者并帮忙清债之后。Macom 又不是日内交易标的，所以那 4500 万美元其实被锁住了。 如果另一半增发卖给了套利可转债的投资者，短期就偏空。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.
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LITE 和 AAOI 的比喻
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE 是龙虾和最后一道 surf and turf。 $AAOI 是那个也卖最后一道 surf and turf 的蒸汽锅厨师。 但他们又想回去养红龙虾。
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE is a lobster and the final surf and turf. $AAOI is the steamer who also sells the final surf and turf. But they want to go back to farming red lobsters as well.
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IBKR 开始支持韩国股票
哇，不会吧。 $IBKR 现在已经有韩国股票了。 这会很有意思，我之前有很多想法都没法做多。
英文原文
Woah no way. $IBKR has Korean stocks now. This is going to be fun, I had a lot of ideas in mind I couldn’t long.
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MTSI 参股 IQE 怎么会看空
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI 想买下 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者？这怎么可能是利空。
英文原文
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.
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MTSI 接手 IQE 是大利好
@LNMDad $MTSI 接手 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者，这非常正面。
英文原文
@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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SIVE 仍被严重低估
我还是觉得 $SIVE 被严重低估了。 市场好像只是慢慢开始意识到，它可能是 $AMD 的激光供应商？ 顺便说一句，在 $GFS 的演示材料里，唯一两家公开的激光公司就是 $SIVE 和 $LITE……而 AMD 的 CPO 项目最终走的是 GFS。 而且在 Ayar 的网站上，$SIVE 是唯一还留在上面、和 GFS 并列的公司，因为他们悄悄把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从合作伙伴板块删掉了。 AlChip 和 GUC 也正好都是超大规模云厂商供应商里的大角色。 感觉 Sivers 的激光明年会出现在很多地方。
英文原文
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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IREN 社区编造 Anthropic 交易
@dinxnd_ 投资和因为 $IREN 社区想编造一笔和 Anthropic 的交易而去投资，是有区别的。 然后再拉着别人去买入正在进行的稀释。
英文原文
@dinxnd_ There’s a difference in investing and investing because the $IREN community wanted to make up completely false information about a deal with Anthropic. Then get others to buy into active dilution.
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别为假消息辩护
@PrettyNoice 去淡化那些为了让散户买入正在进行的 ATM 而编造超大规模云厂商交易假消息的人？ 目的就是在吸引了数百万浏览量后，让散户冲进去接盘。
英文原文
@PrettyNoice Downplaying folks who make up materially false information about hyperscaler deals? To get retail investors to buy into active ATMs after hitting millions of views?
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IREN 社区编造信息
我说 $IREN 社区成员 IQ 很低，可不是开玩笑。 他们确实在编造信息，好让别人继续买入正在进行的稀释。 这个社区会散布这种胡话去骗新的散户，然后一个月后再来一轮，继续他们那 60 亿美元的 ATM。 提示：Anthropic 和 $IREN 之间根本没有交易。 这简直是在侮辱那些真正做 OSINT / 供应链映射的人。
英文原文
I wasn't joking when I said $IREN community members have low IQ. Since they literally have to fabricate information get people to get others to buy into active dilution. The community shares this sort of BS to convince new retail investors, then does another one a month later for their active $6B ATM. Hint: there's no deal with Anthropic or $IREN. It's an insult to anyone who actually does OSINT/Supply Chain mapping.
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IREN 假交易与拉盘
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN 社区真的编造了一笔和 Anthropic 的假交易，想在晨间公告前把股价拉起来。 然后他们的董事会成员也一直在编造信息，等那只带着 ATM 的股票暴跌后又把内容删掉。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN community members literally fabricated a false deal with Anthropic to pump stock prices ahead of a Morning announcement. Then their board member fabricates information all the time then deletes it after the stock that has an ATM going on crashes.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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LWLG 式研发合作加稀释
这相当负面。是大新闻，但本质上是那种没有营收的研发合作，和 $LWLG、$TSEM 那类差不多。 他们还有一个巨额稀释投票，3 周左右会把 4500 万股增到 9500 万股，我对这种大幅稀释周期非常反感。 不过我预计大家最后还是会因为 FOMO / 新闻去买。
英文原文
Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles. But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.
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SIVE 让我想起早年的 AMD
@H0M3b 我看 $AMD 的时候，它十年前还在 3.5 美元附近，但大家都说他们打不过 $INTC。 还总说英特尔随时都能把他们干掉。 我对 $SIVE 和 $LITE 也有点类似的感觉？不过走着看吧。
英文原文
@H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC. And that Intel could just beat them anytime. Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see.
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SOI 估值还没到 40B
@TLEROY5 我不认为 $SOI 会变成 400 亿美元公司，也许一年后会到 80 亿到 120 亿美元。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 I don't see $SOI becoming a $40B company, maybe $~8B-12B in a year.
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IQE 已经大涨很多
@miss_middletonn 自从我发帖之后，$IQE 已经涨了大约 260%。路上肯定会有波动，但还没到特别严重的程度。
英文原文
@miss_middletonn $IQE is up like ~260% since I posted. There's going to be volatility along the way, but nothing too material.
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SOI 目前还只涨了 160%
@TLEROY5 $SOI 到现在也就涨了大约 160%。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 $SOI is only up like 160% so far.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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指出AMSC和PLPC虽为行政令受益股，但涨幅有限，不可能单日暴涨48%。
@Yolo365247isme 我确实也把$AMSC和$PLPC列为行政令受益股，但 conviction 没有那么高。 我的意思是 AMSC 今天涨了 8.58%，PLPC 涨了 6.37%，它们不可能一天就涨 48%。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I do have $AMSC and $PLPC as the executive order beneficiaries as well but not as high conviction. I mean AMSC is up 8.58% and PLPC is up 6.37% today, they don’t just go up 48% in a day.
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HPS.A 已经很强
如果你听了 Optimus Prime…… 那你现在持有 $HPS.A 三周就已经涨了 47%。 你听了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
英文原文
If you listened to Optimus Prime… You’d be up 47% in just 3 weeks with $HPS.A. Did you listen to Optimus anon? https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
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AXTI 又回来了
@offermemoneyXYZ 对，我之前在 $AXTI 上也有点回撤，不过很高兴它又回到 1057% 的收益了…… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Yeah, I was down a bit on $AXTI but glad it’s back at 1057% gains… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
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IQE 仍在持有
@UlquiorraRises 不？我还拿着 $IQE，只是从很高的位置回落后，依然还剩 246% 的收益。 https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
英文原文
@UlquiorraRises No? I’m still holding $IQE just down a lot to a small 246% gain https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
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AAPL 供应链假设
@fredrikmob49943 你好，瑞典本地朋友。如果不是 $AAPL： 请你给我举一个别的美国财富 100 强公司（排除三星后）的例子，它每年能出货 5000 万台以上…… 那么它就能匹配 $SIVE 的研发激光规格和应用，对吧？
英文原文
@fredrikmob49943 Hi Swedish local. If it's not $AAPL: Please name me another US Fortune 100 company (not Samsung by elimination) shipping 50M+ units yearly... That fits $SIVE R&D laser specs + applications then?
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AAPL 但不确认供应链
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL 不会确认 BOM 以及供应链里的上游供应商。但我几乎 100% 确定，可能 99%。 你也许可以再举一个每年出货 5000 万台以上、并且符合他们研发激光规格和应用场景的消费硬件公司？
英文原文
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL won't confirm BOM and upstream vendors in their supply chain. But almost 100% sure, maybe 99%. Maybe you can name another consumer hardware company shipping 50M+ units yearly that fits their R&D laser specs + applications?
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上市时点和量产催化
我不知道那是谁。我没有泄露任何东西，Sivers 管理层一直都想在美国上市，从 $BYNO 这件事就能看出来，而且他们也说会继续尝试。 紧接着不久就出了新闻，这纯属巧合，挺好笑的，我当时完全没料到，也不知道那回事。 不过我确实预计，量产爬坡 / 市值提升会成为催化剂，只是时间点我是在猜。
英文原文
No clue who that is. I didn't leak anything, Sivers management has always been trying to get listed in the US as seen with $BYNO and said they'd keep trying. Hilarious coincidence with news timing not too long after, was unexpected and didn't know about that. Expected volume uptick / MC increase to be a catalyst though around guessing timing.
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IREN 仍然看空
@BitcoinAIGuy 我现在仍然看空 $IREN，因为有 60 亿美元 ATM 的悬压，哪怕市场传言他们在做 colo 也是如此。我去年确实做多过，你知道的。
英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy I’m still bearish on $IREN due to $6B ATM overhang, even if there’s rumors they’re doing colo. I was long last year you know.
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LULU 不该找 Nike 老将
只是个想法……也许别请一个 $NKE 的“老将”来领导 $LULU 的品牌重启？ 这就像 PayPal 去请前 HP 的 CEO 一样。 我真的无语了。 https://t.co/GAE7
英文原文
Just a thought… Maybe don’t hire a $NKE “veteran” to lead the $LULU brand revival? It’s the equivalent of PayPal hiring the former HP CEO. I’m just speechless. https://t.co/GAE7pnx8qJ
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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SIVE 可能更早放量
我当时估计的是 2027 年 9 月，或者 2028 年上半年。$SIVE 提供的图表也许暗示放量会比预期更早。 如果一家公司让我等 5 年研发，我个人不会去做多。 但我做多，是为了拿到过去 5 年开发成果带来的上行，以及 2027 年来自 Ayar、$AAPL 和其他客户的量产爬坡。
英文原文
I had September 2027 or H1 2028 as my estimates. Graph provided by $SIVE might hint at earlier ramp than expected. I personally wouldn’t go long on a company if I had to wait 5 years for R&D. But I went long to get the upside from all development for the past 5 years with Ayar, $AAPL, and other for 2027 volume ramp.
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IBKR 现在确实更好
不客气，$IBKR？ 但它现在确实是更好的券商，我倒是很惊讶 $HOOD 还没有国际股票。
英文原文
You’re welcome $IBKR? But it legitimately is the better brokerage right now, I’m surprised $HOOD doesn’t have international stocks. https://t.co/yMEZOXtI9w
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SIVE 的最佳 TA 形态
这其实是我最喜欢的 $SIVE 技术图形。 我把它叫做： “把公司所有权从瑞典本地人转移给美国投资者 / 机构。” 时点刚好卡在美国纳斯达克上市和超大规模云厂商 2027 年量产爬坡之前。 特别感谢那边的媒体。 https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
英文原文
This is actually my favorite $SIVE TA setup. I name this: "Transferring ownership of the company from Swedish locals to American investors/institutions." Good timing right before US Nasdaq listing and hyperscaler 2027 volume ramp. Special thanks to the media over there. https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
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博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
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LWLG 和 SIVE 的估值对比
@SidkMena $LWLG 只有一项和 $TSEM 的开发协议试验，市值却有 22 亿美元。 $SIVE 正在出货激光器，明年很可能会进入几乎所有超大规模云厂商的光学项目里，而市值只有 8.2 亿美元。 这是我今天看到的最被低估的机会之一。
英文原文
@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B $SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.
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SIVE 被市场严重低估
@Dulbas163452 谢谢！这些内容都是我在脑子里自己映射出来的，所以我个人会觉得 $SIVE 被低估得很离谱、上行空间也很大…… 但大多数人其实不太懂，所以用流程图的形式总是更有帮助。
英文原文
@Dulbas163452 Thanks! This is just mapped in my head so I personally see how stupidly undervalued/high potential $SIVE is... Majority of others don't really understand though, so flowchart format always helps.
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SIVE 还有很大上行
@SpilledMocha 我确信，只要 Marvell、Jabil、Ayar、O-Net 和其他公司有足够的 CPO / 1.6T 放量，$SIVE 从这里翻 10 倍是有可能的。
英文原文
@SpilledMocha I'm convinced $SIVE could 10x from here if there's enough CPO/1.6T volume ramp from Marvell, Jabil, Ayar, O-Net, and others.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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AMSC 更像美国导向受益股
@auer_trist24737 我更喜欢 $AMSC，因为它名字就叫 “American Superconductor Corp” 而且特朗普 + DOE 更有可能给名字里带 America 的公司发资金，老实说……
英文原文
@auer_trist24737 I liked it $AMSC more for exposure because it's called "American Superconductor Corp" And Trump + DoE are more likely going to give funding to the names with America in its name tbh...
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HPS.A 是国安慢牛
@mi20483980476 对，我喜欢 $HPS.A，而且之前还专门写过一篇关于变压器的 thesis 帖。 到现在涨了 49.4%？ 这些名字比纯 AI 标的慢很多……但对国家安全很关键。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 Yes I like $HPS.A and did an individual thesis post on them awhile back for transformers. It's up 49.4% so far? These names are slower compounders compared to pure play AI ones... But critical to national security.