· 个股论点
@NullContex1s 如果 $AAOI 预测 2027 年 Q3 单季营收 14 亿美元（月均 4.71 亿美元），年化营收 56 亿美元（目标 GAAP 毛利率 40%+）。而它市值仅 80 亿……或者如果个人 $SIVE CW Win 产能预测的中位数阵列营收约 4 亿美元，毛利率 60%。而它市值仅 10 亿。仅应用较低的 20 倍远期市盈率，就可能使光学类股票大幅重估。即使是像 $LITE 这样的其他公司，未来两年订单也已完全售罄，拥有这种需求可见性……并非泡沫。欧洲人倾向于用滚动十二个月(TTM)估值，而光学类股票是 2027-2028 年的成长故事。
@NullContex1s If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.