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Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。
@OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。
英文原文
@OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there
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Uber联手Nvidia对抗Tesla和Waymo，共享出行市场或现多赢格局。
我会将其框架化为 $UBER + $NBIS Avride 对阵 $TSLA 对阵 $GOOGL Waymo。特斯拉有独立应用。Waymo 也有独立应用。两者都在与 Uber（拥有最大网络）竞争。如果我是 Uber，我会通过 Avride 来增长，以免用户仅仅被引导至 Waymo 的应用。共享出行领域可能有多位赢家（例如 $LYFT + $UBER），因为这是一个巨大的市场。
英文原文
I'd frame it more of $UBER + $NBIS Avride vs. $TSLA vs. $GOOGL Waymo. Tesla has its standalone app. Waymo has a standalone app. Both are competing vs Uber (which has the largest network) If I were Uber, I'd grow with Avride on this so they don't just funnel users to Waymo's app. Probably multiple winners (eg. $LYFT + $UBER) for ridesharing since it's a huge market.
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作者因看好TSM需求且担忧Lyft竞争，倾向重仓TSM而非Lyft。
我不喜欢追高，除非能明确看到未来几年会有疯狂的需求增长，比如 $TSM。 $Lyft 主要面向美国市场，我认为 Waymo 会随着时间的推移扰乱其市场份额。 即使股价在 $20 美元，它依然不错，但我更喜欢其他公司。如果我再有 100 万美元，我会直接投入 TSM 而不是 Lyft，因为我会加倍下注于我更有信心的股票。
英文原文
I don't like chasing unless it's clear it will go up with insane demand over the next few years like $TSM. $Lyft is mainly US market and I see Waymo disrupting market share over time. Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better. If i had another $1M I'd just put that into TSM instead of Lyft since I double down on higher conviction stocks.