北京时间 2026-08-28 14:53:51 · 个股论点

Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。

涉及标的： $AAOI $COHR $GFS $JBL $LITE $MRVL $POET $SIVE

中文翻译

我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下：公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。为何不披露客户？正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。

英文原文

Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.

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