北京时间 2026-08-12 15:54:08 · 供应链分析

光通信财报验证CW激光器瓶颈，SIVE作为稀缺CPO标的获看好。

涉及标的： $AAOI $AVGO $COHR $LITE $MTSI $SIVE $SMTC

中文翻译

这就是我目前看到的关于 $SIVE 和连续波(Continuous Wave, CW)分布反馈(DFB)激光器瓶颈的情况。来自光通信板块的财报： 1. $LITE：UHP CW 激光器出现意外需求和供需失衡。 - 有能力提高激光器的平均售价(ASP)。 - 共封装光学(CPO)扩产按计划进行，预计2027年下半年出货，称任何关于CPO扩产延迟的谣言都是噪音。 Lumentum 确认了时间表（此前 Sivers 因误导性报告被抛售），高利润率，以及经过认证的CW激光器需求极度旺盛。 2. $AAOI：由于光模块需求过大，CW 激光器产能不足。 - 并未实质性参与第一代 CPO 部署，$MTSI 看起来也不在其中，专注于非平面光学(NPO)。在 $SMTC 收购 HieFo 后，我没看到太多动静。 - 称激光器是光模块20-40%需求失衡中的瓶颈。 - 称客户每周都来找他们要求供货并加快进度。 AOI 确认了需求失衡 + 激光器瓶颈。第一代 CPO 玩家池子更小。 3. $AAOI 和 $LITE 均称中国玩家在 CPO 激光器方面落后数年，且实际认证产能远落后于其声称。 - $AAOI 称落后2-3年以上。 - $LITE 称未见到如中方声称那样的产出（若虚假也无追责手段）。重申了 CPO 相关激光器的护城河，光通信板块并未如某些空头声称的那样被中国产品淹没。 4. $MTSI 称许多客户因磷化铟(InP) DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急接触他们。再次将 Sivers 置于该瓶颈中，使其可能获得更多客户需求。在 $COHR ($725.4亿市值)、$LITE ($665.7亿市值)、$AVGO ($2.13万亿市值) 中：能以约 $15亿市值获得西方四大 CPO 领导者之一的 $SIVE，非常特别。感觉我的论点得到了验证： - 我预测的 CW 瓶颈 - CW 激光器瓶颈（至少对于第一代而言，只有少数 CPO 玩家）现在只需等待下一代光架构转变的拐点。

英文原文

So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.

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