· 个股论点
这只是一个针对 $MU 的极度简化的看多情景。当然也存在看空因素，例如 @MarkosAAIG 提到的 $NVDA Rubin 在 HBM4 认证方面的执行风险。$INTC 的逻辑与此类似，美光位于美国。美国政府可能对海力士/三星征收关税以推动本土使用，加上超 60 亿美元的赠款、数百亿美元的税收抵免，以及超大规模云厂商对本土供应链的需求，即使出现延迟，美光也拥有巨大优势。在需求端，他们 2026 年及 2027 年的订单已售罄。我认为这是一次结构性需求转变，而非周期性波动，尽管人们可以有不同的解读。
So this is just an oversimplified bull case scenario for $MU. There's obviously bear cases too, one being HBM4 qualification execution risk for stuff like $NVDA Rubin that @MarkosAAIG mentioned. Similar thesis with $INTC here, Micron is in the US. US government likely tarrifs on hynix/samsung to push for domestic usage, $6B+ in grants, and tens of billions in tax credits, and hyperscalers wanting a domestic supply chain gives Micron a pretty big edge even if there's delays. As with the demand side, they're sold out for 2026 and into 2027. I see a structural demand shift, not a cycle this time around, people can interpret it differently though.