供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1309 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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梳理AI供应链各环节瓶颈周期及对应厂商，指出材料短缺现状。
关于瓶颈时间表的更新： - ABF基板：1年 / 例如味之素(2802)生产ABF膜，伊藤忠、欣兴电子、南电PCB等制造基板 - HDI板：超过6个月 / 胜宏科技(300476)、正崴(4958)、欣兴电子、康强电子(2313)、美科(6787) - 多层板：约6个月 / 胜宏科技、沪电股份(002463)、$TTMI、金电路电子(2368) - CCL(覆铜板)：超过6个月（材料严重短缺） / 台光电(2383)、生益科技(600183)、台光电子(6274)、ITEQ(6213)、南亚塑胶(1303)、Resonac(4004) 三井金属(5706) / HVLP(高垂直拉伸比)铜箔。日东纺 / 玻璃纤维/布 - MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)、芯片电阻、钽电容、铝电解电容：15-20周至1年以上 MLCC：村田(6981)、三星电机、TDK(6762)、太阳诱电(6976)、国巨(2327)、华新科(2492) 芯片电阻：国巨、华新科、KOA(6999)、罗姆(6963)和$VSH 钽电容：京瓷/AVX、国巨/KEMET、再次提到$VSH 铝电解电容：日本化工(6997)、Nichicon(6996) | 时间表源自Digitimes，我负责补充了相关公司。 但这稍微更复杂，因为MLCC等混合了大宗商品类型与AI数据中心需求。 无论如何，这是一些有用的映射。
英文原文
Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.
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AI需求旺盛致模型产能不足，预示资本支出将持续增长。
周日闻到更多人工智能资本支出(AI capex)的气息，这种感觉无与伦比。如果领先的尖端模型(frontier models)因需求过旺而产能不足，可能还有很长的路要走。 https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
英文原文
There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
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提醒关注SK海力士ADR转换及机构套利导致的溢价收敛。
@syl_52 我在这里不发布任何可操作的建议。只是给大家提个醒，关于 SK 海力士 (SK Hynix) 在 29 号的 ADR 时间线转换。如果机构决定进行套利，溢价可能会收敛。
英文原文
@syl_52 I'm not posting anything actionable here. Just giving people a heads up on about ADR timeline conversion for SK Hynix on the 29th. And that it's likely premiums might converge if institutions decide to arbitrage.
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高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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韩国散户遭强制平仓，证实近期崩盘由去杠杆而非基本面引发。
哇，据称韩国约 3.4% 的成年人口面临清算风险？ “截至 7 月 13 日，超过 120 万杠杆散户交易账户触及追保线，其中 32 万至 36 万账户被券商强制平仓。” （另有消息源称该数据来自高盛交易台，而非韩国金融监督服务机构数据） 无论如何，这仅仅是证据表明近期的崩盘是由清算级联/去杠杆加速的，而非基本面所致：
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Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:
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CPO尚未规模化且存延迟风险，GLW玻璃桥接加剧不确定性。
@johnoao 共封装光学(CPO)尚未实现规模化量产。他们的大部分收益来自2028年FAU的总可寻址市场(TAM)。 由于CPO延迟报道和$GLW玻璃桥接技术，近期存在大量不确定性。 https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
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@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU. There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge. https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
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券商称DRAM短缺加剧，内存供需紧张将持续至2028年。
Meritz Securities的Kim Sunwoo：“现在不是抛售三星电子和$SKHY的时候。” 他们认为市场过度误解了半导体局势，且DRAM短缺将在今年下半年加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商仅能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求”。 - 2027年：“满足率预计降至60%区间。” 文章中附带了市场预测，显示SK海力士2027年市盈率为3.5倍，三星为3.9倍。 认为$INTC CEO关于时间框架的言论最到位：“直到至少2028年，内存供应和价格都不会缓解”。 特别是在$MU签署16份有利的“提货或付款”长期协议后，内存需求似乎具有结构性。
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Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
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博主认为半导体板块接近底部，Reddit散户爆仓是反向指标。
我猜测，从 $INTC 到 $LITE 的半导体板块已接近市场底部。一个很好的指标是，看看 $RDDT 上是否所有人都把投资组合亏到了 $0。
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My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX
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AI板块无差别大跌，高贝塔股波动剧烈，反弹亦具高波动性。
@blkslymn 我不确定你是否注意到，目前整个AI板块正在无差别下跌。像三星这样市值1万亿美元的公司本月下跌了26%。$MRVL 下跌了31%。因此，高贝塔值（High Beta）的标的往往波动更大，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 下跌了50%。但随后的反弹往往也更具波动性，例如 $AEHR 在财报（ER）后单日上涨50%。
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@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
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摩根士丹利将SIVE列为CPO核心玩家，机构正利用其上市前的流动性错配。
@afasano23 摩根士丹利在3天前的研报中将 $SIVE 与 $LITE 和 $COHR 并列为三大核心共封装光学(CPO)激光器玩家。富达研究、摩根大通等机构已开始积极建仓。他们最近以57瑞典克朗的价格完成了一轮超额认购的机构融资。这一切都发生在美国纳斯达克上市之前。我个人认为，目前相对于远期收入存在短期流动性错配，我确信机构正在利用这一点。
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@afasano23 Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.
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美光签长协后股价反跌，博主认为这是去杠杆尾声而非基本面问题。
今天，$MU 宣布与 $QCOM 签署了存储长期协议(LTA)。有趣的是，美光随后立即下跌了 5.37%。鉴于签署了所有这些结构性协议，感觉存储或 AI 个股本身似乎并没有什么问题？这更像是去杠杆/利润率级联效应的尾声。
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Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
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存储与光模块基本面强劲，但市场反直觉抛售。
@michaelsikand 下季度DRAM涨价20%+，$SNDK与$META签长期协议，$MU签16+长期协议。市场：继续抛售存储股。800G光模块需求大幅上调？激光器售罄至2029年初？市场：抛售光电子和激光公司。
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@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
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苹果或并购AI芯片公司并大幅上调资本支出，利好光网络及代工。
$AAPL 看起来打算收购 AI 芯片公司来运行 AI（来源：The Information）。目前，$MSFT、$META、Amazon、Google 正在承担 AI 资本支出。但如果苹果在并购后加入其他公司呢？一种可能的场景是，他们大幅上调资本支出以建设自己的 AI 基础设施。因为他们可能目睹了 Google 因算力限制切断 Meta 的情况……或者当你与 OpenAI 合作开发大语言模型时会发生什么。然后他们意识到拥有自己的基础设施有多么重要。从光学网络到晶圆代工厂，这一场景在主题上会相当看多，而且是市场意想不到的？让我们看看会发生什么。
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$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.
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转发 Rosenblatt 对光通信板块疲软的核查。
@avshushka 只是转发 Rosenblatt 频道关于光通信板块(CPO)疲软的核查： https://t.co/IhWhCqjZsD
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@avshushka Just forwarding the Rosenblatt channel check on optical sector weakness: https://t.co/IhWhCqjZsD
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POET证实光学巨头遭抛售，预示市场将经历去杠杆回调。
@meikozz_2026 我认为基本面没有错。市场可能会不时出现大幅回调，以清洗掉杠杆和保证金，随后才会继续上涨。 而且这个月似乎就是这样的时间节点？ $POET 证实你们提到的大型光学巨头如 $LITE、$COHR 已被完全抛售。
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@meikozz_2026 I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold
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Trendforce 预测 26H2 SLC NAND 大涨，华邦等小厂受益明显。
嗯，据 Trendforce 预测，2026 年下半年 SLC NAND（单级单元闪存）价格预计上涨 120-170%。 $MU（美光，21%）和 Kioxia（铠侠，20%）占据最大份额，但更清晰的受益者似乎是： 1. Winbond（华邦电子，2344）：约占 SLC NAND 市场 15% 2. Macronix（宏碁半导体，2337）：约 11% 市场份额 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
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Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
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AEHR暗示硅光子学扩产，若明确CPO则Msscorps受益。
@JJJJJ_66666 情况很微妙，$AEHR 的暗示更多是指向更广泛的硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)相关产能爬坡。这可能包括 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块，或共封装光学(CPO)。如果他们直接点名 CPO，Msscorps 将是一个非常清晰的受益标的。它最近因延迟说法遭受重创（即使...
英文原文
@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even
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NBIS签Reflection算力协议后股价反跌，博主暗示背后另有合作伙伴。
$NBIS 与 Reflection AI 签署超 10 亿美元算力协议，通过 2029 年获取 GB300 访问权。Reflection 此前也与 $SPCX 签署了数十亿美元协议。鉴于 $NBIS 今日闻讯下跌 5%，这至少可以说很有趣。此外……完成此事的合作伙伴 https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
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$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
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Tower Semi 获日政府支持扩产硅光子及先进封装，目标净利12亿。
今天 $TSEM 和 $AAOI 分别发布了不同的产能扩张公告。 在日本政府的支持下，Tower Semi 宣布扩大其 300mm 硅光子(SiPho)、硅锗(SiGe)以及先进封装产能。 目标净利润为 12 亿美元，https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
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Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
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@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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摩根士丹利研报梳理CPO产业链各环节关键参与者。
摩根士丹利今日发布关于共封装光学(CPO)的研报。关键参与者包括： - 激光供应：$SIVE、$COHR 和 $LITE - 交换平台：博通(Broadcom) 和英伟达(Nvidia) - 光学引擎与光子学：Lightmatter、Ayar Labs、Marvell/Celestial 和 POET - 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)：$TSM、$GFS 和 $TSEM https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
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Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
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GLW短期难替代FAU；Starlink扩产或致CCL交换机产能瓶颈。
简要回顾 TLDR： - 据摩根士丹利，$GLW 玻璃桥接(glass bridge)有潜力，但短期内难以取代 FAU（如 FOCI）。 - $SPCX Starlink 第三代正扩展至 10 万台（是上一代的 10 倍），可能给转向覆铜板(CCL)的交换机供应商带来产能瓶颈。 - PCB
英文原文
Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB
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博主正在深入研究日本化学工业。
刚才正在深入研究日本化学工业(Nippon Chemical)……
英文原文
Was just doing more research into Nippon Chemical …
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IBK报告梳理波士顿动力Atlas机器人供应链及主要零部件供应商。
上个月有一份 IBK Research 关于波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)价值链的报告。简要总结如下：IBK 将这些公司映射为 Atlas 的供应商：Hwashin (010690) / 身体、手臂、腿部；LG Energy (373220) / 电池；Hyundai Autoever (307950) / 集成；Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
英文原文
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
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4APR或已定价，鲑鱼DNA处理或成新瓶颈
@ANMcapital 4APR（4-氨基吡咯并[2,3-d]嘧啶）可能已被定价。但也许鲑鱼DNA处理（Salmon DNA processing）会成为新的瓶颈，因为女性将其用于面部乳液的量很大……
英文原文
@ANMcapital APR might be priced in. But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...
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分析某AI巨头通过融资博弈独立并建立万亿市值的路径
@SpongeQuant 如果没有完成所有这些操作，他不可能建立起一家万亿美元市值的公司。 - 获得埃隆的资助 -> 独立运营惹恼了 $TSLA - 获得 $MSFT 的资助 -> 通过引入其他超大规模云厂商注资稀释微软股份，惹恼了微软 - 获得 $NVDA 的资助 -> 为他们构建...
英文原文
@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their
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OpenAI构建独立生态激怒七巨头，被视为真正的颠覆者。
这是一个逆向观点，但如果 Sam Altman / OpenAI 能激怒包括 $AAPL 在内的所有“七巨头(Mag7)”，说明他们做对了什么。他们正在构建自己的生态系统，而不是被卷入另一个生态。自 $GOOGL、苹果、微软等公司以来，已经很久没有出现过真正的颠覆者了。
英文原文
Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
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SIVE采用多发射器DFB阵列实现CPO，其总功率与单激光器方案相当。
@siflower 它是架构无关的。超高功率(UHP)输出可以通过单个连续波激光器实现，也可以通过多发射器连续波DFB阵列实现，后者正是 $SIVE 在共封装光学(CPO)领域采用的方案。因为后者的总输出功率是可比的。
英文原文
@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.
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AMZN回应AAOI看空报告，称已对网络优化建模。
关于 $AMZN RNG 与 OpenAI 的 MRC 及 VCSEL 技术。这似乎是对 B. Riley 发布的 $AAOI 卖出报告的一种间接回应，该报告称优化措施“使网络扁平化并削减光收发器 TAM 40-50%”。Rosenblatt 的要点是：他们已对此建模，尽管每个 XPU...
英文原文
Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU https://t.co/A41ceTqKwJ