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分析光收发器PCB供应链瓶颈受益公司，认为激光器瓶颈更具吸引力
所以如果你们关心EML/CW激光器之外的第二个光收发器(optical transceiver)瓶颈： - $SANM（美国） - $TTMI（美国） - WUS Printed Circuit（证交所代码:2316） - Unimicron（证交所代码:3037） - Zhen Ding Tech（证交所代码:4958） - Gold Circuit Electronics（证交所代码:2368） 这些公司是光收发器PCB瓶颈的赢家。 还有一些下游玩家如FIC Global也受益，不过他们更多是做组装而非晶圆厂。 其他公司如Unimicron规模太大，还有ABF基板等其他业务板块，可能感受不到太大差异。 美国公司的机会主要来自供应链回流美国，虽然中国和台湾玩家是主要受益者。 $AVGO的表述： “台湾和中国的PCB供应商都面临产能限制，导致了延迟，”Ramachandran说，但没有点名具体供应商。 我目前没有任何这些股票的多头仓位。 我可能是错的，但我认为激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$MTSI、$COHR、Sumitomo）在光学供应链中对结构性重新定价更有吸引力。
英文原文
So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers: - $SANM (US) - $TTMI (US) - WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316) - Unimicron (TPE: 3037) - Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958) - Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368) Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck. There's some downstream players like FIC Global that benefits, not so much as a Fab but assembly. Others like Unimicron are likely too large with other segments like ABF substrates to feel much of a difference. US plays are more-so from reshoring to US supply chains, even though Chinese and Taiwanese players were main beneficaries. $AVGO quote: "Both Taiwanese and Chinese PCB suppliers are facing capacity limits, contributing to the delays, Ramachandran said, without naming the suppliers." I have no open long positions in any of these right now. I could be wrong, but I felt laser chokepoints ( $LITE, $SIVE, $MTSI, $COHR, Sumitomo) in optical supply chains to be much more compelling for structural re-rating.
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推荐IBKR交易全球市场，TTMI作为替代，并提示市场机会众多。
我在美国，但经常四处旅行。$IBKR 可以访问大多数市场。话虽如此，如果你想避免外汇费用，$TTMI（一年涨幅267%）等美国标的可以提供类似的敞口，但显然并不完全相同。此外，我讨论的话题很多，市场上还有大量其他机会。
英文原文
US, but I travel around a lot. $IBKR has access to most markets. That being said there are similar US plays like $TTMI (up 267% 1Y) for similar exposure if you want to avoid foreign fees but obviously not quite the same. Also I talk about a lot of things, there's tons of other opportunities out there
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分析Google TPU v7供应链，建仓Lumentum以博弈TPU生态扩张。
对 $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood 供应商的分析。 以下是受 Google TPU 建设影响最大的公司列表。 + 我正在建仓的 TPU 相关股票。 [关键] 设计/IP： - 博通 [ $AVGO ]：共同设计并实现 Google 的 TPU ASIC（专用集成电路） [关键/高] 半导体晶圆代工： - #1 台湾半导体 [ $TSM ]：TPUv7 在 TSMC 3nm 工艺制造 - #2 三星电子：次要存储及晶圆代工合作伙伴 [关键/高] 存储： - #1 SK 海力士：为 TPUv7 Ironwood 提供 HBM3E - #2 三星电子：~TPUv7 特定报告强调 SK 海力士 + 三星。 [高] 光网络： - Lumentum [ $LITE ]：Google 广泛使用光电路交换 (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]：OCS 参与者但较弱 [高] 电源管理 IC： - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]：这是一个投机性观点，即 Vicor 将被 $MPWR 取代，源自财报中提及 TPU [中] 热管理： - Vertiv [ $VRT ]：Vertiv 供应作为液冷系统核心的 CDU（冷却分配单元），将冷却液泵送至 TPU 芯片的冷板 - Modine [ $MOD ]：更投机性地认为他们提供大型冷水机组和空气处理单元 (AHU) [中] 互连： - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ]，$ANET，Unimicron，Ibiden ______ Google TPU v7 “Ironwood” 的建设代表了一个旨在打破 $NVDA GPU 垄断的平行硅生态系统的构建。 实质性影响最集中在博通（作为硅架构师和商业载体）、存储综合体（SK 海力士/三星）以及光网络/电源领域（Lumentum/Vertiv），这是基于公开证据创建的，但很大程度上取决于采用率、供应商份额和竞争反应的实际表现。 从这项供应链研究中，我正在 $LITE 建立新头寸，以防 TPU 成为推理领域的主导 ASIC。 Lumentum 是 Google 致力于 OCS 的主要受益者，并构成了 TPU 吊舱中使用的 “Apollo” OCS 交换机的核心。 TPU v7 集群的爬坡直接转化为 Lumentum 光开关模块的出货量。由于 OCS 是 Google 超大规模方法独有的定制架构，Lumentum 在此处面临的 commoditization（商品化）压力小于标准收发器市场。 然而，如果 Anthropic、Meta、Apple 和其他公司购买 $GOOGL ASIC 导致 TPU v7 规模扩大，该供应链中的所有公司都将受益。
英文原文
Analysis of the $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood Suppliers. Here's the list of what comapnies are the most materially impacted by the Google's TPU buildout. + the TPU stock I'm taking a position on. [Critical] Design/IP: - Broadcom [ $AVGO ]: co-designs and implements Google’s TPU ASICs [Critical/High] Semiconductor Fab: - #1 Taiwan Semi [ $TSM ]: TPUv7 is fabbed at TSMC 3nm - #2 Samsung Electronics: Secondary memory & foundry partner [Critical/High] Memory: - #1 SK Hynix: HBM3E for TPUv7 Ironwood - #2 Samsung Electronics: ~TPUv7-specific reporting emphasizes SK hynix + Samsung. [High] Optical Networking: - Lumentum [ $LITE ]: Google uses extensively uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]: OCS player but weaker [High] Power Management ICs: - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]: This is speculative that Vicor will be replaced by $MPWR, from earnings mentioning TPU [Medium] Thermal Management: - Vertiv [ $VRT ]: Vertiv supplies the CDUs that act as the heart of the liquid cooling system, pumping coolant to the cold plates on the TPU chips - Modine [ $MOD ]: More speculative that they provide provides the massive chillers and air handling units (AHUs) [Medium] Interconnects: - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ], $ANET, Unimicron, Ibiden ______ The buildout of the Google TPU v7 "Ironwood" represents the construction of a parallel silicon ecosystem designed to break the monopoly of $NVDA GPU. The material impact is most concentrated in Broadcom (as the silicon architect and commercial vehicle), the Memory Complex (SK Hynix/Samsung), and the Optical/Power sectors (Lumentum/Vertiv) and was created from public evidence but is largely dependent on adoption, vendor shares, and competitive responses actually play out. From this supply chain research, I'm initiating a new position in $LITE, in the event the TPU becomes the dominant ASIC for inference. Lumentum is primary beneficiary of Google’s commitment to OCS and form the core of the "Apollo" OCS switches used in TPU pods. The ramping of TPU v7 clusters translates directly to unit volume for Lumentum’s optical switch modules. And because OCS is a bespoke architecture unique to Google’s hyperscale approach, Lumentum faces less commoditization pressure here than in the standard transceiver market. However all companies in this supply chain are set to benefit if the TPU v7 scales up from Anthropic, Meta, Apple, and others buying the $GOOGL ASIC.