供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1122 条 · 第 4 / 23 页
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解释为什么 SIVE 总被瑞典媒体打压，但浮筹仍在转移
SIVE 每天都在重复上演这种剧情，已经像 deja vu 了，哈哈。 这也说明为什么 Sivers 很快会在纳斯达克上市，而不是继续留在本地市场。 每天开盘本地媒体都会来一篇攻击这家前沿公司的文章，然后股价跌 10%： -> “CPO 和 CW lasers 没什么新东西” -> “Sivers 要去跟资金雄厚的 $LITE 和 $COHR 竞争，肯定会因为资本劣势输掉” -> “为了上纳斯达克不得不稀释 2.5%” -> “年报延迟很可疑”（其实是为了上纳斯达克） -> $SIVE 体量不够，无法放大和 $JBL 的关系并扩张。 最后本地瑞典人都在卖，西方投资者 / 基金在接手流通股。 在 CPO 量产前就让西方持有这家公司，显然更好。 纯靠瑞典本地去做一家前沿公司，感觉希望很渺茫，因为本地文化就不太行。
英文原文
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
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解释 NVDA 对 IREN 的支持并不等于真正投资
$NVDA 什么都没投。他们拿到的是一个完全无风险的购买协议，自己没有承担任何投入。 这和可转债不同；可转债是他们借钱给 $IREN，然后按 70 美元转换。 很多人把融资结构的细节混为一谈，但如果他们真给 $NBIS 投了 20 亿美元，那就完全是另一回事。
英文原文
$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.
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强调 NVDA 只是给了无风险认购文件
@OrkunEC Nvidia 基本上只是给了 $IREN 一个完全无风险的股份购买票据，自己根本没投钱。 这甚至都不是可转债，因为他们没有给 $IREN 任何现金。 他们让 $IREN 用自己的品牌去继续稀释并买 Nvidia GPU，自己却不会承担损失。
英文原文
@OrkunEC Nvidia basically got a completely risk-free share purchase note for $IREN and hasn't invested at all. This wasn't even a convertible note, where they gave $IREN any money. They're not losing anything for letting $IREN use their brand to dilute more and buy Nvidia GPUs.
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认为 LPK 是玻璃基板超级周期的更干净玩法
$LPK 在过去两周涨了 80%。在大约 6.87 亿美元市值下，这成绩不算差。 它大概是下一个玻璃基板超级周期里最干净的玩法之一。 量产之后，每个客户可能要 50 到 100 台机器，2027 年的量产节奏会覆盖 $INTC、$GLW、SKC 等很多公司（因为它们已经拿到了大约 80% 的主要玩家）。 每台机器平均大概 200 万欧元。 仅仅 5 家玩家在 2027 年就可能带来 4 亿到 10 亿欧元以上的收入（甚至更多）？因为它们基本上是大家都在用的 chokepoint。按照约 67.6% 的综合毛利率看，等量产爬坡还是挺有希望的。
英文原文
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle. 50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players). Maybe ~€2M average per machine. €400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins. Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
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认为算法看不懂供应链映射，只会继续做空
大概率还是纯算法行为，但昨天又有 0.76% 的流通股被做空了。 算法通常看不懂很多供应链映射细节，比如 $AMD 和 $GFS 一起做 CPO。 然后在 $GFS 的图片展示里，$SIVE 只被列成两个激光供应商之一。这就是 alpha，因为你知道别人不知道的东西。
英文原文
It's likely pure algorithmic, but another .76% of the float was shorted yesterday. Algorithms tend to miss a lot of the nuances of supply chain mapping like $AMD going with $GFS for CPO. Then $SIVE listed as 1 of 2 laser suppliers in $GFS image presentations. This is called alpha though since you know something others don't.
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继续讽刺瑞典媒体对 SIVE 的恶意报道
我还在笑瑞典人有多讨厌自己的前沿公司。 他们天天给 $SIVE 写打压文章。 这篇就很有娱乐性：本地记者未经邀请就跑去一栋空着的 $SIVE 行政楼前。 因为他们无法理解 CEO 其实在硅谷，或者设计团队正在美国做 CHIPS Act 相关开发。再加上楼外面没停多少车，以及 CFO 不愿回答关于保密 hyperscaler 合同财务细节的问题。 于是他们又写了一篇莫名其妙的负面稿。 还反复写“做这种激光的公司不止一个，Sivers 远不是唯一一家”。 比如 $LITE、$COHR 这些 600 亿美元以上的公司。 又写早前那种“CPO 没什么特别，很多年都有了”的说法。 而 GS 的预测却是 CPO 在未来两年从 10 亿美元 TAM 增长到 910 亿美元。 他们甚至还把“Plans”写成引号，好像不相信 Sivers 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供激光。 我认为 $SIVE 明年会变成一家 100 亿美元以上的公司，尤其如果他们像 $LITE / $COHR 那样把下游 IP 集成起来，多吃一点 CPO 模块 BOM。 他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 供应链、前瞻成长，以及员工数量不等于收入这件事。 当地瑞典持股向西方转移，这件事其实一直是好事，因为它曾经是一家由本地散户主导的公司。
英文原文
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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认为 CPO 是对所有光子公司都成立的新机会
$LITE 原本已经把 EML 和现有 pluggable optical transceivers 的价值定价进去了。 CPO 对所有光子公司来说，都是一个全新的机会，也是巨大的 TAM 扩张。 这是一次重大的架构变化，像 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这种过去没怎么受益的公司，也会明显受益。
英文原文
$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers. CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players. It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.
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用 Coherent 财报再次验证 CPO 的时间线
$COHR 财报笔记： Coherent 的 CEO 基本上又一次印证了 GS 研究里的判断，CPO 会成为非常大的收入驱动。 转录里有一句："One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent"。 对 $SIVE、$LITE 和其他 CPO 相关名字的时间线含义也很清楚： “初始 scale-out CPO 收入预计在 2026 年下半年开始，而 scale-up CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年跟进”。 “Coherent 正在和多个其他客户合作，并预计 CPO 解决方案会被广泛采用。” 这也再次确认了采用程度。 scale-up CPO 是全盘最大的价值驱动点，会在明年下半年开始。我们现在还在 2026 年上半年，正进入下半年。 所以现在就是在任何东西落到报表前，提前抢跑 CPO 标的的理想时点。 这就是我说的“alpha”——在市场还看不见财务数据时，把未来先定价进去。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月看未来……所以如果大规模量产在 2027 年 7 月开始（也可能再提前）， 而现在是 2026 年 5 月，那一大段定价会在 2026 年 7 月到 2027 年 7 月之间逐步发生…… 也就是在 2026 年下半年到 2027 年上半年之间，先把量产协议和前生产爬坡这些东西价格化。 在市场真正开始定价最大量能驱动之前 2 个月提前布局，就是我所谓的在下一轮 CPO 超级周期里“抢跑”。 我们知道它会来。现在只是在等。
英文原文
$COHR earnings note: Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver: Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent” In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines: "Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027" "Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level. Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026. So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet. This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials. Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)... And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027. 2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle. We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.
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认为 LPK 是最喜欢的玻璃基板敞口
不，我现在最喜欢的敞口大概是 $LPK，因为它们给所有人供货。 我的意思是，如果你做多玻璃核心基板，Samsung、$INTC 和其他公司可能会更大一些。 SKC 可能是这个领域里市值最低的龙头。 然后如果它们跑通了，HB 大概会顺带受益，并且最终给其他玩家提供和良率相关的东西。
英文原文
No. $LPK is probably my favorite exposure right now since they supply to everyone. I'm just saying if people are long glass core substrates, Samsung, $INTC, and others are probably a bit bigger. SKC is probably the lowest MC leader in that space. Then if you see them succeeding, then HB gets a piggyback + probably ends up supplying yields related stuff to the other players.
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表示自己在 LPK 上的仓位最高
@tw_crypto_ 对，我在 $LPK 上的仓位最高……感觉像 HB / LPK 这种更上游的供应商，比 SKC 更去风险。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah I have highest concentration in $LPK... feels like more upstream suppliers like HB/LPK are more derisked than SKC.
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认为做多 SKC 生态不算差
做玻璃核心基板的话，做多 SKC 生态好像也不算太差？ SKC（011790）—— 在 CHIPS Act 资金支持下，是玻璃核心基板的领导者之一，市值约 55 亿美元。 HB technologies（078150）—— 自动光学检测 / 良率，借着 SKC Absolics 做二次增长，市值约 2.5 亿美元。 SKC 的铜箔 / 电动车旧业务拖累似乎已经在见底。它的财报看上去像一团糟，但其实已经被市值定价进去，而且比那些有 60 亿美元以上稀释的美国公司要好。 HB 风险更低，估值也不高，而玻璃的良率会变得非常重要。 我在这两只上都只有很小的仓位。 本来还想再等一等，但市场看起来已经在把玻璃定价成下一个可能的 memory / photonics 交易。
英文原文
For Glass Core Substrates, doesn't feel too bad going long on the SKC ecosystem? SKC (011790) - Is one of the Glass Core Substrate leaders with CHIPS ACT funding at ~$5.5B MC HB technologies (078150) - automated optical inspection / yields piggy backing off of SKC Absolics at ~$250M. SKC's copper foil / EV legacy drag seems to be bottoming. Their financials seem like a dumpster fire, but it's kinda priced into MC + better than US companies with $6B+ in dilution. HB seems lower risk, low p/e and yields for glass is going to be pretty important. I do have very small exposure to both. Was going to wait a bit longer but seems markets are pricing in Glass as the next possible memory/photonics trade.
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MicroLED技术就绪度低，$SIVEF/$AAOI等CW光模块企业更值得布局
MicroLED在高盛报告所述的任何CPO相关批量增长之前，仍然感觉还很遥远。 Quantum Dot（如$ALMU/QD）甚至没有被提及，因为它的前景在数年之外。 在调整中，"溢价"会消失，但估值底部由收入支撑。 另一方面，$SIVEF或$AAOI即将进入批量生产阶段（<800万），直接处于CW领域。 我更倾向于在经过多年研发/扩张之后立即获得上涨空间... 而不是等待数年从研发到样品再到认证...然后才到达批量增长的转折点。 MicroLED的"技术就绪度"很低。
英文原文
MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note. Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years. In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue. $SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space. Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion... Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp. "Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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LPK 继续垂直上涨，玻璃生态很热
@tw_crypto_ 对，$LPK 在垂直线往上走，玻璃生态很热闹。今天 photonics 虽然跌了，但 memory + glass 能把它平衡回来。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah $LPK is going in a vertical line up, fun times for the glass ecosystem. Photonics is down today, but memory + glass helps balance it out.
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说明 MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测
@itsadnyc MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测……
英文原文
@itsadnyc MSSCorps is CPO inspection...
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观察到玻璃基板相关标的今天被机构一起买入
我感觉今天机构就是在买所有和玻璃核心基板有关的东西？ 像： - Philoptics，涨停 - HB technologies，涨停（SKC 供应商） - YCCHEM，涨 20% 而欧洲那边还有 $LPK。 不知道我是不是漏掉了什么重大消息。
英文原文
I feel like institutions are just buying everything glass core substrate related today? Stuff like: - Philoptics, limit up - HB technologies, limit up (SKC supplier) - YCCHEM +20% Then there's $LPK over in Europe. Wonder if I missed any major news.
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认为 LITE 其实是在说 InP substrates 不够
我觉得这只是 $LITE 的公司措辞，意思其实就是： “我们没有足够的 InP substrates”。 还记得我去年说过，随着 photonics 放量，$AXTI 会继续作为关键瓶颈而增长吗？ https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
英文原文
I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for: “We don’t have enough InP substrates”. Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
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认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.
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发现 LITE 外购 CW lasers 对 SIVE 是重大利好
这是个新信息：$LITE 被迫从外部竞争对手那里买 CW lasers。 很可能是因为他们和 EML 签了 2027 到 2028 的合同，自己产能不够…… 所以 $SIVE 会成为一个很大的受益者，因为其他 hyperscaler 供应商会转向别的 CW laser 供应商，还有亚洲那些大玩家，比如 Sumitomo + $COHR。 我们看看市场能不能把 1 加 1 连起来。
英文原文
This is new information discovery that $LITE is forced to buy CW lasers from external competitors. Likely because they have EML contracted from 2027-2028 and can't produce enough CW... So $SIVE is a massive beneficiary of other hyperscaler suppliers going to other CW laser suppliers + the big ones in Asia like Sumitomo + $COHR. We'll see if markets can put 1+1 together.
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LITE 的 CW laser 瓶颈验证了 SIVE 的上游地位
哇……巨大的 CW laser 瓶颈。 有意思的是，$LITE 被 CW lasers 卡住了，所以它们要去公开市场买： “现在我们在自己的供应链里，确实看到一点紧张，必须去外部市场拿 lasers，也就是 CW lasers。” $SIVE / Win、Sumitomo、Furukawa 等都在一个结构性卖断货的市场里…… 很可能是因为像 $LITE 这样的公司必须继续生产 EML。 这也开始解释了为什么 Ayar 在网站上只把 $SIVE 列为唯一 laser 供应商，还把 $LITE / $MTSI 删掉了。
英文原文
Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?
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CPO面临全行业供需失衡，多处产能瓶颈将显现。
$LITE CEO在财报电话会中措辞是"CPO存在巨大的供需失衡"。 我认为即便是$SIVE、$GFS、Win、Shunsin，以及所有CPO相关公司，都会面临需求过剩的局面……从而在多个环节引发全行业瓶颈。 但话说回来，$AMD的CPO项目可能不得不选择其他激光供应商，比如$SIVE，因为$NVDA锁定了产能。
英文原文
$LITE CEO on their transcript worded it as "massive supply demand imbalance on CPO" I think even $SIVE, $GFS, Win, Shunsin, and everyone CPO related will have too much demand... leading to an industry wide bottleneck on multiple chokepoints But yes, $AMD CPO program likely had to go with other laser suppliers like $SIVE as a result of $NVDA securing capacity.
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认为 LITE 已确认 CPO 超级周期和 TAM 扩张
$LITE 的 CEO 基本上确认了 GS 的 TAM 扩张和 CPO 超级周期。 从接近 0 到 910 亿美元。H2 2026 到 2028： “我认为我们已经说过，CPO 会有巨大的供需失衡” 需求大于供给。 “最大的单一增长驱动，scale-up CPO” 巨大的收入驱动就是 CPO。 “现在还非常处于早期”。 我们正站在起点。 这正是为什么我会持有 $SIVE、MSSCorps、Shunsin、$TSEM、$SOI 等，去获得对 CPO 超级周期起点的高 beta 暴露。
英文原文
$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle. From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028: “ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO” Demand > Supply. “Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO” Massive revenue driver is CPO. “is very much in its infancy”. We’re at the beginnings. This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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欣讯通过鸿海垂直整合间接成为英伟达CPO供应链受益者，被市场忽视且估值偏低。
我很确定像高盛这样的机构在$15亿估值时错过了欣讯(6451)的CPO封装/测试/组装业务。这就是为什么我非常看好它，认为它是一个完全走后门的、隐藏的英伟达CPO产能提升的主要受益者。鸿海是其供应链中的主要合作伙伴，包括$TSM和$ASX。但是……欣讯是鸿海的光学部门，并承接其内部的全部光学和先进封装业务。所以它们没有在任何地方被明确列出，也没有与英伟达的直接合同（但鸿海有）。但很可能通过鸿海垂直整合吸收了英伟达的CPO和其他产能。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.
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确认 Lightelligence / Lightmatter 也有新消息
@michael_rigoni 不，这确实是关于 Lightelligence 的新信息发现，尤其是考虑到他们最近的成功。 Lightmatter 也是一样。
英文原文
@michael_rigoni No this is definitely new information discovery with Lightelligence. Especially in light of their recent success. Same with Lightmatter.
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认为 OE Solutions 还太早，几乎没开始抽样
@UmidKD OE Solutions 的 sampling 才刚刚开始。ELS 线还没有客户，也没有 active qualification。 大概还早了 8 个月，hyperscaler 供应商甚至未必会决定去认证他们，但市场现在就是在把所有光学相关的东西都往上抬。
英文原文
@UmidKD Sampling has barely started for OE Solutions. No customers or active qualification for their ELS line. Probably 8 months too early and hyperscaler suppliers might not even decide to qualify them, but markets are moving up anything optical related.
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认为 SIVE 在 GFS 生态图里被列入极其看多
没错，市场可能漏掉了 $SIVE + $GFS SCALE 这件事。 $SIVE 被列为 $GFS 生态图里两个公开 laser 供应商之一，这对 Sivers 来说是极度看多的信号。 每当像 $AMD 这种公司使用 $GFS 做 CPO、再借助 GlobalFoundries 搭建光学方案时， Sivers 大概率就是他们的光源，给 $AMD -> hyperscaler 这条链路供能。 带着 CPO 的 hyperscaler buildout 最终会流到这家只有 17 亿美元市值的小型 laser 光源公司 $SIVE 身上。
英文原文
Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE. The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers. Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries. Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers. The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.
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认为 SIVE 也是 Lightelligence 的潜在未披露激光供应商
有个很有意思的点：$SIVE / $SIVEF 也很可能是 Lightelligence 的未披露激光供应商。 感谢 Plaskpojen 做的 OSINT 发现。 https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
英文原文
Fun thing to note: $SIVE / $SIVEF is the likely undisclosed laser supplier for Lightelligence as well. Credit to: Plaskpojen for the OSINT find. https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
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说明 MSSCorp 在 CPO 检测里几乎是功能性垄断
@GCV_geoff 我觉得它还在交易中。
英文原文
@GCV_geoff It's still trading I think.
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解释 MSSCorp 的功能性垄断地位
我确实说过，MSSCORP 很可能在 CPO 检测上有功能性垄断。 这几乎没有绕开的办法，而且对 $NVDA / $TSM 的良率来说都很关键。 他们自己也说过“the c...”
英文原文
I did say MSSCORP likely has a functional monopoly for CPO over inspection. Not really a way around it and it's critical for $NVDA / $TSM yields as CPO ramps. They did say "the company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" Should have been the biggest indicator.
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解读 GS 光学 TAM 9 倍增长的 CPO 细节
Goldman Sachs 关于 Optical Networking 的预测。 整体 TAM 会增长 9 倍： 从 150 亿美元到 1540 亿美元。 CPO 占其中 910 亿美元。 这到底是什么情况？ 对，这也是为什么像 $LITE、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这类名字值得关注。
英文原文
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
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SIVE 是激光瓶颈供应商，可能供货多家CPO厂商却未被机构发掘。
$SIVE 处于高盛所说的具有显著每股收益(EPS)上行空间的激光瓶颈环节。 但它们仍未被机构发现，尽管它们可能与 $AMD 共封装光学(CPO)、$MRVL CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、$POET 等公司有关联。 Ayar 被提及了，但奇怪的是他们没有找到它们的上游激光供应商。
英文原文
$SIVE is in the laser chokepoint that Goldman says has significant EPS upside. But they're undiscovered to institutions still, despite their likely mapping to $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, $POET, and others. Ayar got mentioned though, but strange they didn't find their upstream laser supplier.
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认为 CW/EML laser chokepoint 上行空间最大
@jojowamikko 我也有我自己的看法。 但我同意 CW / EML laser chokepoint 是上行空间最大的之一。 他们漏掉了很多名字，我会更关注这些，因为它们相对更纯。
英文原文
@jojowamikko I have my own opinions. But agree that the CW/EML laser chokepoint has one of the highest upside. They missed a ton of names, and I'd focus on those since they're relatively "undiscovered" to institutions.
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高盛看好AI驱动光通信供应链，多环节供应商名单汇总
如果你对高盛的报告感兴趣： 他们预期以下领域会出现"显著的每股收益(EPS)增长"： 1. 光学模块和引擎 2. 连续波(CW)激光器和电吸收调制激光器(EML) 3. 印制电路板(PCB)/覆铜板(CCL)制造商 以下是这份超详细清单： 激光器/光源(硅光子SiPh)：Sumitomo、Furukawa(5801)、Landmark(3081)、YJ Semi、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、Etern、曙光光电(https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT)、世嘉光子(https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm)、应用光电(AAOI)、Accelink、三菱电机(6503) 激光器/光源(EML)：Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、博通(AVGO)、YJ Semi、永恒光电(Etern)、住友电工(5802)、曙光光电、世嘉光子、Source Photonics(私营)、三菱电机(6503)、Accelink、古河电气(5801) 无源光学组件-耦合器/分路器：FOCI(3363)、Senko(私营)、AFR、Everprox、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR) 无源光学组件-滤波器：世嘉光子、住友电工(5802)、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、唯亚威(VIAV)、FOCI(3363) 无源光学组件-衰减器：Everprox、Accelink、FOCI(3363)、Lumentum(LITE) 无源光学组件-波分复用(WDM)：AFR、Everprox、Accelink、Ciena(CIEN)、TFC Optical、Lumentum(LITE)、FOCI(3363)
英文原文
If you're curious about Goldman's Report: They expect "significant EPS upside" among: 1. Optical modules and engines 2. CW lasers and EMLs 3. PCB/CCL manufacturers Here's the massive cheat sheet: Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Mitsubishi (6503.T) Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (https://t.co/qWTYoY2y6z), Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Furukawa (5801.T) Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR) Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO) Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE) Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (https://t.co/fjsjeuQxcq), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)
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认为激光器环节是CPO供应链最被低估的瓶颈，拥有InP垂直整合等多项期权价值。
最近关于"共封装光学(CPO)供应链"的讨论很多，什么是最被低估的环节？让我发表一下我的观点： 激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$COHR）是目前接触光子学和CPO的最佳途径。 因为存在大量期权价值，这给了Lumentum等公司溢价空间。 具体体现在： -> 随着可插拔光收发器的出现，下游IP总可寻址市场(TAM)不断扩展 -> InP激光器晶圆厂的垂直整合，而非无晶圆厂(fabless)模式 -> 多道工序的垂直整合，例如测试甚至封装 把你自己想象成在经营一家公司，并快速推进到$100B或$300B的规模。 不要仅仅基于预测的收入和利润率来做电子表格模型。
英文原文
There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued. Let me put my opinion out there: The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO. Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums. With: -> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers -> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless. -> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly. Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B. Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.
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Sivers成为CPO关键激光供应商，NVDA引发的产能瓶颈正驱动AMD等厂商争抢上游资源。
看到$SIVE成为CPO(共封装光学)的Tier 1激光供应商，这真的很疯狂。 这是我的预测/猜测与大致映射： $NVDA用$COHR、$LITE的产能（在他们新的20亿美元以上支出计划之后）。 早期2025年EML用了同样的手法，导致了今天的瓶颈。 现在，$AMD/超大规模云商正在争抢上游激光供应商。 因此，$SIVE + Win / $GFS成为可能的主要途径。 你可以从以下看出： -> $MVL CPO通过Celestial（Nvidia签了协议，但他们没有激光器） -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> 其他项目（如Jabil 1.6T） 因此，Sivers/Win成为Tier 1尖端关键独立激光供应商。 这一点的一些暗示： 1. $GFS在其生态系统中将$SIVE / $LITE列为仅有的两家公开激光供应商。 2. Ayar将$LITE / $MTSI从其网站上移除，并将$SIVE提升为主要激光供应商。 所以其他所有人最终都选择了Sivers，因为$COHR / $LITE已经完全分配。 我的猜测是，随着架构标准化，许多二级供应商也会抢占溢出市场份额。 明年年初，考虑到$NVDA的瓶颈，这场争夺关键环节的竞争将异常激烈。 而这家瑞典小型公司$1.2B规模的$SIVE将处于这场竞争的中心。
英文原文
It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.
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CPO仍处早期，将远超可插拔光模块超级周期规模
@MontagueCap CPO（共封装光学）一切都还处于极早期阶段。所有像$LITE这样的光学公司，从可插拔光模块超级周期发展至今，现在已达到数百亿美元规模。 CPO的规模将远超大量现有预测，而像$SIVE、MSSCorps这样的公司目前还在10亿美元规模左右。
英文原文
@MontagueCap Anything CPO is EXTREMELY early. All the optical companies from the pluggable supercycles like $LITE are now in the tens of billions. CPO will dwarf a ton of projections, and companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range.
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CPO市场将迎抛物线式增长，是最佳早期布局机遇
以防你们想知道我为什么对CPO（共封装光学）如此看好。比如$SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi/$TSEM（晶圆代工）。\n\n"CPO市场预计从2026年到2030年将以142%的复合年增长率强劲增长（不含ELS）"\n\n"规模扩展CPO细分市场预计将在2030年前超过规模扩展应用，成为主导市场。\n\n未来几年将呈现近乎抛物线式的增长。\n\n许多像Sivers这样的厂商之前对800G可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但却是CPO领域最前沿的激光器供应商领导者。\n\n这是由$NVDA和$AVGO驱动的下一代光学超级周期中最好且最早的机遇之一。
英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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AXTI 的上游与垂直一体化风险被低估
以当前估值推动 $AXTI 的主要是机构；做空它的散户很可能会大错特错。 如果 AXT 因出口管制而下跌，整个光子业务扩张也会受影响。（例如 AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite）而且更值得担心的是别的问题。 如果把 AXT 10 多个上游合资企业单独拆成一家纯西方商社，它从战略角度看，价值可能会比 5N 还高。 另外，营收数字有误导性，因为这些是 TTM 合同，不是新签合同。像 7n 高纯铟这类上游材料，相比去年价格已经大涨。 这条供应链是垂直整合的，所以可能会像 NAND 一样，在有限基板下出现涨价；但不同于住友，AXT 除了少数环节（比如红磷）之外几乎包揽了整条供应链。 所以它比你想的更危险。
英文原文
It’s majority institutions moving $AXTI at these valuations, retail shorts might turn out terribly wrong. If AXT goes down from export controls the photonics buildout does too. (Eg. AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite) and there are bigger problems to worry about. If you just split out AXT’s 10+ upstream JVs into one merchant Western company it would probably be worth more strategically than 5N. Also revenue numbers are misleading since these are TTM contracts, not new ones signed. All the upstream materials like 7n high purity indium has spiked immensely since last year. It’s all vertically integrated so there might be a NAND style price hike off limited substrates, but unlike Sumitomo, AXT does the entire supply chain minus a few like red phosphorus. So it’s more dangerous than you think.
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不建议做空 AXTI
我不是说 $AXTI 现在是值得买入的标的。 我只是说别做空它，因为它们（以及中国）在整个美国超大规模云厂商所需流程里，实际上处于功能性垄断地位。 而且如果他们通过涨价进行反制，事情可能会变得非常糟。
英文原文
@bc1aa1fa3932407 I'm not saying $AXTI is a good buy at these levels. I'm just saying not to short it because they (and China) are a functional monopoly over this entire process required by US hyperscalers. And it could go very wrong if they weaponize through price hikes.
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AXTI 不只是 InP 基板那么简单
散户空头真的不该碰 $AXTI。 我一直看到有人把 $AXTI 误解成只有 “InP 基板”，总是拿住友来对比，但我一直没出声。 这是错的。 它们实际上掌握了整个 InP 供应链 40% 以上，这也是机构愿意给它们融资的原因。 它们握有很多卡点，不只是 InP 基板。 正如海湾地区那样，削减大约 20% 的供应就会是灾难；如果再叠加另外 3-4 个卡点，后果更严重。 -> 所有原材料（铟、镓、锗）。 Vital 和 $AXTI（自有、金美）与中国公司一起构成寡头；而西方的 5N 等只占很小一部分份额。 由于中国（Vital、AXT）掌握多数份额。 -> pBN 坩埚卡点： $AXTI 也是另一个巨大的卡点（博宇）。还有信越/摩根等少数玩家，但这又是精炼层面的一个瓶颈。 InP 基板： $AXT / 住友在这里是双寡头，JX、$COHR 只占很小比例。 这里面还有很多其他工艺（比如红磷）处于中间环节（例如日本化学/理沙）。 这是一个材料问题。 $COHR 不能在没有 AXT 控制的所有上游材料和精炼环节的情况下，直接做出 InP 基板。 如果 $LITE 的 CEO 因为 InP 基板睡不着觉，那么 50 亿美元估值对维持西方超大规模云厂商的建设上线来说根本不算什么。 日本的上游材料正在被出口管制，而 AXT 把这些都牢牢握在手里。 所以总的来说：我看到很多空头把事情混同成 “只是 InP 基板” 了。 实际上是所有铟、镓 -> 精炼加工 -> pBN 坩埚，再到最终由它们与住友共同完成的 InP 基板生产过程。 如果 Vital 和多个上游卡点停止供货，下游西方 InP 基板厂商就会受影响。 AXTI 会变成一个小型垄断。 估值来自掌控整条供应链，而不只是连机构分析师都搞不懂的 “InP 基板制造”。
英文原文
Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI. I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment. This is wrong. They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them. They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates. As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints. -> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium). Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share. Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority. -> pBN Crucible chokepoints: $AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers. InP substrates: $AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage. There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle. This is a materials problem. $COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls. If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online. Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive. So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating. It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo. if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers. AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly. The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.
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机构开始买入光子链条
@ravietweet 摩根士丹利现在最终持有了 $SOI 6.5% 的股份，这也是我另一只硅光多头。 我就是要把 AI 的结构性卡点展示给散户看，赶在机构理解之前…… Point72、$MTSI 和其他机构在我发出那篇 thesis 之后，也买了 $IQE 的流通股。
英文原文
@ravietweet Morgan Stanley now ended up holding 6.5% of $SOI, which was my other silicon photonics long. I’m do show retail the structural chokepoints in AI before institutions figure it out… Point72, $MTSI and others ended up buying $IQE float after my thesis post too.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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SIVEF 因 Golden Dome 叙事走强
如果你想知道为什么 $SIVEF 今天又涨得更多。 $SIVE 作为 CHIPS Act 受益者： 现在很可能在为 Golden Dome 提供支持。 作为上游半导体供应商，因为 Sivers 的主客户 ALLSPACE 被 $YSS 收购了。 York 恰好又是一家国防主承包商，和太空军、太空发展局、国防部以及 Golden Dome 都有关联。 所以，Sivers 这家小小的瑞典公司，基本上通过一条后门，接入了美国太空建设链条。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.
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LPK 是卡点而非纯投机
@jpm7019 $LPK 不是那样。按开发进度来看，$ALMU 更接近“投机”这个定义。 $LPK 已经主导了一个卡点，而且几乎所有半导体公司都在做认证。 现在只是猜这些半导体公司的量产爬坡会是什么样，以及这会怎样影响市值。
英文原文
@jpm7019 $LPK not exactly. $ALMU fits the definition more of speculation just going off development. $LPK is already dominates a chokepoint and is qualifying with almost every semi. It’s just guessing what volume ramp looks like for all the semi companies and how that affects MC.
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Lightmatter 直接买 SIVE 激光器
你提供的照片只是例子。但我一直猜 Lightmatter 很可能是客户，因为他们以前就提到过它。 但我指的是那句关于“客户”的报价：它们融资了 2.5 亿美元（Lightmatter 1.54 亿 + Celestial 1 亿），这更像是 Lightmatter 直接购买 $SIVE 激光器的证据。
英文原文
The photo you provided were just examples. But I always guessed Lightmatter was a likely customer because they referenced them before. But I was about the quote around "customers" that raised $250m (Lightmatter $154m + Celestial $100m), so that's more of evidence of direct relationships of Lightmatter buying $SIVE lasers.
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Lightmatter 似乎在用 SIVE 激光器
从这些参考资料看……Lightmatter 似乎确实在用 $SIVE 的激光器？ 这是全新的信息发现，对 Sivers 来说极其正面。 Lightmatter 是一家体量巨大的私营龙头（2024 年估值大约 44 亿美元），而 $TSM、$GFS、$TSEM、$AMKR 和 $ASX 都在扩展它的光学项目。 而 Lightmatter 的确需要光源…… $SIVE 还恰好和 $LITE 一起出现在 $GFS 的激光源供应商名单里，所以这些线索开始拼起来了？ 终端用户很可能就是你的超大规模云厂商，比如 $MSFT、$GOOGL（他们投资了）、$META 等，通过 Lightmatter-GUC 等路径进入。 我不认为市场已经把这些都定价进去了，因为整个供应链 BOM 都非常保密，而且很多只是推测。 但当 CPO 和下一代光子架构开始放量时，量产爬坡带来的营收会突然出现在资产负债表上。
英文原文
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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Celestial 可能是 SIVE 直接客户
很棒的发现。基本上从旧投资人材料和融资金额来看： 看起来 Celestial 曾经就是 $SIVE 的直接客户。 所以：$MRVL 现在大概率是在直接从 $SIVE 买激光器，而不是通过 Poet 购买（Poet 再买 Sivers 激光器来封装）。 因为 Celestial 最初就是围绕 Sivers 的激光器设计的。 Marvell 可能早就准备好通过垂直整合，绕开封装 IP 和组装环节，以获得更高利润率。 现在直接供货给 $MRVL，对 $SIVE 来说非常利好。
英文原文
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.