供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1309 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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Rosenblatt认为光学板块短期疲软源于CPO延迟及产能恐慌，看空逻辑存疑。
Rosenblatt 关于近期从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的光学板块疲软： “由于共封装光学(CPO)延迟报道和中国产能恐慌，光学板块股票在过去1-2个月表现不佳。” “我们认为空头……并不真正强烈相信这一看空逻辑。” 多个 https://t.co/C9QTiFOPlH
英文原文
Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. "We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis." Multiple https://t.co/C9QTiFOPlH
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美资买盘或造成结构性影响，TSM溢价印证此观点。
@yuntungshieh 嗯，也许美国买盘的涌入可能会产生结构性影响？ 但我确信，正如 $TSM 所表现出的溢价那样，情况大概如此。
英文原文
@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.
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博主对SK海力士后续发展表示好奇
我其实非常好奇，当 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)……
英文原文
I'm actually very curious what happens when SK Hyn…
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预测人形机器人普及度将超汽车，成本与性能将类比计算机发展
@zhouyuan888 我猜测人形机器人(Humanoids)的普及程度将超过汽车。人们看到目前“5万-10万美元+”的物料清单(BOM)成本，认为人类能做得更好。但这关乎未来：我认为两者的普及度/成本最终会像计算机一样。在技术上，我们将看到人形机器人在...方面超越人类
英文原文
@zhouyuan888 My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better. But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers. And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in
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三菱汽车联手Highlanders，多家车企加速布局人形机器人供应链。
三菱汽车加入机器人竞赛，计划于 2027 年部署人形机器人工人。与日本机器人公司 Highlanders 合作。- Agility $CCXI x 富士康、丰田 - Apptronik x $JBL、梅赛德斯 - Highlanders x 三菱 - Figure x 宝马 - 波士顿动力 x 现代（子公司） https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
英文原文
Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
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澄清谣言后散户投降，光子学与英伟达路线图成焦点。
是的，目睹散户投降（retail capitulation）很有趣。在我们澄清了彭博社关于 Meta 计算（Meta compute）的文章（通过其内部备忘录）之后。以及英伟达（Nvidia）否认了两份关于延迟的报告之后。这两件事正是最初引发抛售的原因……所以，光子学（Photonics）/ 英伟达的路线图
英文原文
Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap
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对比TSLA与CCXI在美产路径及供应链本土化程度的差异。
@NullContex1s 我认为情况很微妙： - $TSLA 拥有最清晰的缩小美中大规模生产差距的路径。但为了实现这一点，大多数组件似乎源自中国？ - $CCXI 目前拥有一座机器人制造工厂(RoboFab)，年产能为 1 万+ 台，且 75%+ 的组件源自美国。 所以
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@NullContex1s It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So
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中国主导人形机器人出口，美国技术拐点或已至。
中国正在出口全球约 90% 的人形机器人。我们不能继续轻视他们。 埃隆的评论：“暂时如此”。 与此同时，1X 今天发布了一段最先进的机器人手的视频。 看来美国人形机器人项目的拐点已经到来？ 两者 https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq
英文原文
"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq
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Meta内部备忘录显示AI算力及供应链投入加速，2027年翻倍。
没有什么比内部 $META 备忘录被公开更令人兴奋的了。 显示 AI 正在按常规加速： - 与三星和 $SNDK 签署长期协议(LTA)以采购内存 - 与住友电气签署长期协议(LTA)以采购光纤 - 预计今年部署 7GW 计算基础设施，2027 年翻倍。 - 高达 1450 亿美元 https://t.co/5GagBkPVNA
英文原文
Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B https://t.co/5GagBkPVNA
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xAI发布高效Grok 4.5，效仿中国厂商以性价比竞争。
哇，看来 Elon 和 xAI 在 $SPCX 上成功构建了具有 Anthropic Opus 级别能力的 Grok 4.5 大语言模型。而且成本效率更高……这有点像中国厂商为了在价格+采用率上竞争所采取的策略。（鉴于中国模型的增长，这确实是一件理想的事 https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg）
英文原文
Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg
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建议通过合作伙伴JBL的LRO认证进度来映射SIVE的业务进展。
@Emre07465060084 对于这种与 $SIVE 相关的映射，查看其合作伙伴及其时间表是个好主意。 - $JBL 通过摩根大通(JPM)壁炉边访谈确认，他们在 1.6T 长距光模块(LRO)方面拥有相对显著的护城河，并且正在进行的资格认证将在未来 1-4 个月内完成（2 个月前）。所以应该是 https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
英文原文
@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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西班牙资源可缓解美国对中国稀土依赖
@AlienMShroom 西班牙拥有美国所需的锂、钨和其他稀土元素。而中国恰好对这些实施出口管制……美国需要尽可能多的合作伙伴。
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@AlienMShroom Spain has lithium, tungsten, and other rare earths America needs. That China happens to be export controlling…The US needs all the partners it can keep.
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博主认为存储和AI股基本面强劲，当前下跌仅为去杠杆导致的短期波动。
@QiIris96081 我的意思是，鉴于它们拥有巨额的营业利润/增长，我对存储和AI概念股能够复苏相当有信心。 我认为基本面没有任何问题，尤其是在三星财报之后。 目前只是经历了一场相当剧烈的去杠杆/利润率级联反应。
英文原文
@QiIris96081 I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have. I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings. Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now
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中国激光雷达若被禁，美企及上游光学商或受益，但博主质疑其实际影响。
@jey0316 基本上： > 主要中国激光雷达(LiDAR)厂商可能在西方被禁。 > $OUST、$AEVA 等通过填补真空受益。 > 为西方激光雷达厂商（如 Aeva）提供动力的光学厂商也因收入增加而受益。 鉴于此，我不确定这则新闻是否真的重要
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@jey0316 Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given
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禾赛遭美审查，西方激光雷达厂商因竞争减少而受益。
中国激光雷达制造商禾赛科技（Hesai Technology）因其与 $NVDA 的扩大合作及激光雷达传感器业务，正面临美国方面的国家安全审查。对于 $OUST、$AEVA 及西方激光雷达同行而言，若竞争对手因监管被清退，这总体上是利好消息。鉴于此前已有警告称：传感器可能 https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
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Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
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中美人形机器人产量差距巨大，呼吁美企追赶及政府补贴。
美国为何如此落后？ 新华社：中国的人形机器人(Humanoid Robots)产量预计今年将突破10万台。 即便摩根士丹利最初对2026年的预测也仅为1.4万台…… 真的需要埃隆的 $TSLA、$CCXI (Agility)、Apptronik 和 Figure 迎头赶上。并且需要更多的美国政府补贴给 https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
英文原文
How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
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市场因误导性文章看空Meta算力及NVDA供应链而抛售。
@AlzayakMoh60610 我个人也这么认为。感觉市场在那篇误导性的彭博社关于 $META 算力（Compute）的文章，以及几篇 SemiAnalysis 看空 $NVDA 供应链的帖子发布后，就开始抛售了。因为算法和对“Meta 算力过剩”这一头条的解读，导致资本支出削减并退出。
英文原文
@AlzayakMoh60610 I personally think so. It feels like markets started selling off after that misleading Bloomberg $META compute article, and a couple of SemiAnalysis bear posts on $NVDA supply chains. Since algos + headline interpretation of “Meta excess compute” was cutting capex + dropping out
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AI半导体板块集体大跌，属非基本面驱动的无差别抛售。
直说了： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 等全都一起崩盘…… 毕竟它们今天至今都跌了 -4% 到 -10%+。 这大概跟个股基本面没什么关系。 这是不分青红皂白的抛售（Indiscriminate selloffs）
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Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from
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反驳观点，认为人形机器人资本流入创新高，SPAC旨在加速散户入场。
@ThematicTrader 显然并非如此，VC数据显示人形机器人+物理AI的资本流入已达历史新高(ATH)，而25亿美元的估值对于美国领先的人形机器人玩家来说微乎其微。我的看法是，SPAC结构是为了更快的IPO，从而让散户能够接触到美国的人形机器人公司。否则很多...
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@ThematicTrader Clearly not true, capital inflow for humanoid + Physical AI is ATHs from VC data and $2.5B valuations are tiny for the leading US humanoid player. My take is the SPAC structure is used for faster IPO, in terms of giving retail access to US humanoid companies. Otherwise a lot of
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NVDA否认Kyber延迟，但亚太股市已因传闻暴跌。
$NVDA 驳斥近期关于 Kyber 延迟的说法：“我们的路线图完好无损”。哈哈，损害已经造成，许多市场（尤其是台湾/日本/韩国）的股票在“报道”后暴跌。
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$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu
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WULF签190亿DC租赁，利好新云托管板块。
哇，$WULF 今天与 Anthropic 签署了一份价值 190 亿美元的 数据中心(DC) 租赁协议。这很可能对 新云/数据中心托管(Neocloud/Colo) 板块构成非常积极的 顺风(tailwind)。
英文原文
Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us
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AI大模型突破后，机器人产业链将迎来爆发。
@haybee940 是的，随着 OpenAI/Anthropic 的突破，我们终于拥有了“大脑”。 现在是机器人（像波士顿动力 / $CCXI 这样在过去十年里一直做后空翻的）活过来的时候了。
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@haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs. Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.
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博主批评某报告夸大新架构对TAM的负面影响，类比指出其逻辑荒谬。
@VixOver20 他们正在发布愚蠢的耸人听闻的报告。通过采用一种新架构，然后过度推断称整个总可寻址市场(TAM)将下降40-50%。这就像我说OpenAI优化了内存压缩，所以$MU的TAM下降80%一样。
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@VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports. By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%. It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.
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质疑市场客观性，建议直接参考英伟达声明而非过度解读。
@j1nv3st 不妨说，我认为市场不再视它们为客观。人们倾向于发布过度延伸的主张，而忽略了细微的技术细节。比如几个月前关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 共封装光学(CPO) 供应链中毫无份额的说法。我个人只是直接听取 $NVDA 的声明，
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@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and
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野村报告指出AXTI/IQE领先，InP衬底及外延片价格大幅上涨。
野村证券的报告引用 $AXTI 和 $IQE 作为领先玩家。 关于平均售价(ASP)更新： - 2英寸磷化铟(InP)衬底价格上涨 42-76% - 3英寸 InP 衬底价格上涨 78% - 2英寸有源层(EML)外延片价格上涨 50-75% - 3英寸连续波(CW)外延片价格上涨 ~40%+ - 中国国内价格较低，如 https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A 所示
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Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A
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分享SVRC机器人行业报告，列出Figure AI等8家主要机器人公司。
偶然看到 SVRC Research 4 月发布的一份有趣报告《2026 年机器人行业现状》。 其中列出了： 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. https://t.co/AmCFokQYxl
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Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. https://t.co/AmCFokQYxl
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MU 广岛扩产利好本土设备商，NAND 短缺持续至 2027 年。
关于存储芯片的一些汇总更新： - $MU 主导在广岛进行新的 1.5 万亿日元（约 93 亿美元）投资。（对 Disco、Advantest、Resonac、Towa 构成利好传导）因为资本支出是本地化的。 - 摩根士丹利指出 NAND 供应短缺将持续至 2027 年，因此 $SNDK /
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Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK /
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三星SDI圆柱电池短缺成瓶颈，影响Meta和Amazon的BBU供应。
看来高功率圆柱形电池/BBU电池出现了短缺（即瓶颈）： - 三星SDI向Simplo供应电芯，Simplo将其组装成BBU供应给$META和$AMZN。 - 随着数据中心需求的增加，三星SDI圆柱形电池的生产已[链接]。
英文原文
Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck): - Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN. - As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has https://t.co/MNmNAJ0POv
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宏观讨论波士顿动力和自动化人形机器人
只是宏观层面聊聊波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)+人形机器人+自动化……
英文原文
Just high level Boston Dynamics + humanoid + autom…
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Anthropic澳洲建厂计划印证Neoclouds布局逻辑
泄露的 Anthropic 文档显示，其计划从澳大利亚获取 1.4GW 的容量，金额约为 216 亿美元。 最近 $IREN、$SHAZ 和其他 Neoclouds（新云服务商）一直在澳大利亚建设主权数据中心 (Sovereign DCs)。 我想，就像很多事情一样，在连接性方面开始更有道理了？ （披露：无持仓）
英文原文
Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no https://t.co/V5LzknfjPP