· 供应链分析
相关概念： CPO 共封装光学
我通常喜欢调侃卖方分析师，但 Rosenblatt 对光通信标的的渠道调研（Channel Checks）确实非常出色，他们的报告是我少数愿意讨论的。$AAOI、$LITE、$SIVE 以及激光板块已开始在其预估的时间窗口内恢复。例如，上个月他们提到：“多位空头表示他们可能会在 7 月底和 8 月初平仓”。他们可能误判了 $AMD 会是 $AAOI 的首个共封装光学(CPO) 客户……因为 AAOI 表示他们将缺席第一代 CPO（也许是未来几代？）。但他们关于中国 CPO 激光器定位（例如落后 2-3 年）的许多观点，今天被 AAOI 的财报逐字证实了。
I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about. $AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows. eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August". They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?) But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.