北京时间 2026-08-30 23:24:18 · 个股论点

ESMT因DDR3供应紧张及高经营杠杆，Q2 ASP暴涨，前景看好。

涉及标的： $ESMT $PSMC

中文翻译

我越研究 ESMT，对成熟制程存储(legacy memory)主题就越兴奋。于是查阅了上半年的卖方模型... 3月 ESMT 报告：华南(Huanan)：Q2 DDR3 4Gb ASP 环比+50% 富邦(Fubon)：引用 Q2 DRAM 价格约+40% 到了8月... 华南引用 ESMT Q2 ASP 增长：环比+105–113% 混合。称 DDR3 价格表现远超预期。因此成熟制程存储价格转化为 ESMT 更高的经营杠杆。关于力晶(PSMC)晶圆成本上涨：华南估计 H226 制造成本可能上涨~100%，但客户仍高度愿意接受转嫁。若看7月净利润约1.09亿美元... 远高于早期模型构建的盈利水平。如果我要给出报告的 TLDR “共识” 1. 随着竞争对手将产能转向高价值存储，DDR3/DDR2 供应保持结构性紧张。 2. 康和(Concord)认为 2026 年没有支持价格反转的条件。 3. 康和预计合约价上涨将覆盖更高的晶圆厂成本。 4. 华南后来发现客户接受这些成本上涨的意愿比预期更强。从华南读到有趣的一点是 DDR3 用于 IP 摄像头和 HDD 等产品，其中内存组件在客户总 BOM 中占比较小。因此即使成熟制程 DRAM 价格大幅上涨，成品 BOM 可能只增加几美元... 对许多客户而言，多付几美元比重新设计+重新认证更经济（但这实质性地流入 ESMT 的净利润）总之，对这个想法很兴奋（*披露我持有仓位） TLDR： -> 华南更新 ESMT 混合 Q2 ASP 环比+105-113% -> 鉴于7月净利润爆发（使 ESMT 年化 RR 市盈率达 1.9x），若缺乏弹性持续+ESMT 因成品 BOM 成本低而能进一步提价，未来前景令人兴奋。 -> 迹象表明客户仍愿意接受力晶晶圆涨价的转嫁。

英文原文

The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.

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