· 供应链分析
@Berlinergy 华邦电($WIN) 实际上正在退出 DDR2 领域，转而专注于 DDR4/DDR3，并表示预计 2027 年供应将更加紧张。他们已开始讨论 2029-2030 年的产能规划，并向高端产品转型，因此不太可能再向旧产线分配太多资源。至于其他厂商转向旧产线，认证耗时极长……且激励极低。我查看了晶圆代工依赖度，力积电($PSMC) 是台湾企业，地缘政治上没问题。关于晶圆分配，如果戴上供应链韧性这顶帽子，如果南亚科($ESMT) 停止供应 DDR2，下游将遭受毁灭性打击，所以我不认为会出现这种情况（因为如果华邦退出，他们可能是该产线全球最大的独立供应商）。所以我不太认为会发生……但如果他们获得的晶圆分配减少，平均售价(ASP) 只会进一步上涨，因此盈利可能依然强劲。
@Berlinergy Winbond is actually withdrawing from DDR2 to focus on DDR4/DDR3 and said they expect 2027 to be even tighter. They're beginning capacity discussions for 2029-2030 + moving toward higher end, so don't quite see them having much to allocate toward older lines again. As for other players moving toward older lines, qualification takes a lot of time... and there's just very low incentive to. I looked for foundry dependence, PSMC is Taiwanese, so all good geopolitically. As for wafer allocations, if I had to put my supply chain hat resiliency hat on, if ESMT stopped supplying DDR2, it would just be absolute destruction downstream, so don't see that scenario (since they're probably the world's largest merchant supplier for this line if Winbond exits) So don't quite think it would happen... but if they get less wafer allocations, the ASP just gets hiked even more, so earnings would likely remain strong.