· 个股论点

分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险,并点评用户高波动组合。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

从我的角度来看: $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力,因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外,他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司,同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值(例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨,但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应)的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会(也许我们只是太早了,不过据我上次检查,机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上,所以有些人可能已经意识到了)。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大,但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易,他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用,且为了加速建设,每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而,这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能,他们选择的是AI云路线,而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务,我会作为投资者极度担忧,因为执行存在不确定性,且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好,因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的,因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书,资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件,且虽然营收增长较慢,但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈(可能回撤50%),但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈,那也没问题。

英文原文

Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.

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