· 供应链分析
简单给你个 TLDR，帮你省时间： 1. $ASML、$TSM 财报 = 前景不错。半导体 + capex 起飞。 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic 起飞。软件股就很惨。 3. 三星起飞，部分原因是 $TSLA 的 AI 芯片。 4. $UMC = 代工涨价。foundry 起飞。 5. 训练在中国起飞。H100 租赁价格上升，neocloud 也开心。 6. 氦气短缺 = 影响不大……我之前已经说过很多次了，但我不确定 $TSM 还要再说多少遍。 7. MLCC、电感价格 = 涨价。受益者我后面再展开。 8. “台湾的 OSAT 扩张可能会收紧全球测试产能并推高成本” 我最近做多了像 Shunsin（6451）这样的台湾 OSAT，有原因的。需求会继续跑赢供给，即使扩产也是一样。（cowos、sip、光学）
Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).