$CDNS
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从 CAD CEO 的说法看好机器人，但强调去中国供应链化
“机器人可能会成为史上最大的产品类别”——$CDNS CEO。 “预测是 25 万亿美元。全球 GDP 才 110 万亿美元。所以如果这真发生了，那就太大了。” 我方向上对机器人 / 人形机器人非常看多。 但也许现在是时候让 $TSLA 和美国真正开始优先考虑，如何在中国供应链之外去建设它了？
英文原文
“Robotics may be the biggest product category of all time” - $CDNS CEO. “The projection is $25 trillion. The whole GDP of the world is $110 trillion. So this is huge if this happens.” Extremely bullish on robotics/humanoids directionally. But maybe it’s time for $TSLA and America to really start prioritizing how we build it outside Chinese supply chains?
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GFS 光子/CPO 生态名单
Global Foundries 的光子 / CPO 生态名单： 1. $GFS - 305 亿美元 2. $CDNS - 859 亿美元 3. $SEIGY - 2172 亿美元 4. $SNPS - 840 亿美元 5. $KEYS - 573 亿美元 6. $ATEYY - 1304 亿美元 7. RoboTechnik（ficonTEC）- 114 亿美元 8. $GLW - 1412 亿美元 9. $LITE - 638 亿美元 10. $SIVE - 9.5 亿美元 11. $FN - 247 亿美元 12. $ASX - 633 亿美元 这些都是公开交易的名字。 按他们的演示材料做一个等权做多这个生态，可能也不是个坏主意？ 我还是觉得好笑，所有上市公司都在几十亿美元到几百亿美元市值，而这里却夹着一家小小的瑞典激光公司，和 $LITE 并排出现。
英文原文
Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list: 1. $GFS - $30.5B 2. $CDNS - $85.9B 3. $SEIGY - $217.2B 4. $SNPS - $84B 5. $KEYS - $57.3B 6. $ATEYY - $130.4B 7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B 8. $GLW - $141.2B 9. $LITE - $63.8B 10. $SIVE - $950m 11. $FN - $24.7B 12. $ASX - $63.3B For publicly traded names. Equal weighted long on the ecosystem from their presentation might not be a bad idea? I still find it funny how everything publicly listed is trading in the tens of billions. Then there's some small Swedish laser company there next to $LITE.
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整理Mirae Asset的CPO价值链全图，涵盖激光源到EDA各环节上市公司
来自Mirae Asset的CPO价值链概览： 激光源： Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) PIC代工： TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM > EIC、驱动IC： Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS、光引擎： Innolight / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) TFC / 苏州天孚光通信 (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU（光纤阵列单元）： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU、对准工具： ficonTEC（私企） All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST（私企） FAU、引擎组装： Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT、先进封装： ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > 连接器、套管： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec（私企） T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex（私企） Browave (TWO: 3163) 光纤： Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / 日东纺绩 (TYO: 3110) 电/光测试： Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane（私企） 交换、系统： NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL > EDA： Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > 对这些名单中的一些名称感到困惑，他们可能混淆了一些公司，比如把Innolight和激光源公司（如$MTSI、Sumitomo、$SIVE、Luxnet）与实际终端模块混在一起了（除非有什么非公开材料或者我遗漏了）。 但对于对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，这是一个很好的高层概览。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: CPO领域Mirae分析师笔记： 规模化方向： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、中际旭创 DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 规模提升方向： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互连：研发阶段？ CPO测试："新玩家进入增加" 微透镜/光学系统："新玩家进入增加" TLDR：规模提升的CPO即将到来。我认为分析师笔记遗漏了一堆上游公司名称，并把ELS和光源混为一谈了。 但对于了解他们认为谁是领先玩家来说，这是个很好的高层概览。
英文原文
CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.
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关税冲击致市场恐慌，建议现金抄底非直接受损股，作者认亏持仓。
让人想起越南的闪回。 说笑归说笑，特朗普对中国进口商品加征100%关税并限制关键软件对华出口后，市场下跌超过3.65%。 这一突发事件是理性的重新定价，但也由恐惧和追加保证金通知（margin calls）所催化（盘后，例如$IREN下跌21%，或$BTC跌至10.7万美元）。 这通常预示着增长放缓和通胀上升（降息概率降低）。 然而，Polymarket和美联储期货数据仍显示到2025年有70-72%的概率进行3次降息。明年的中期选举通常对股市有利。而且我们正接近季节性行情的尾声，这通常对股市最有利。 当然，许多股票在交火中下跌，没有任何直接暴露，例如$UNH或$DKNG（例如Draftkings与中国、进口等无关，因为它是美国体育相关的，但下跌了9.4%）。 简而言之：可能是短期的关税冲击，轻微的宏观风险，以及由恐惧引发的整体抛售，但随后将恢复。 现在市场已关闭，在流动性低、利差大的时候（如盘后/隔夜）可以赚很多钱（在早期的关税事件中，$HOOD隔夜从45美元跌至28美元，随后大幅反弹至100美元以上）。 正是由于这类随机事件，我不建议持有期权，因为头寸可能会瞬间被核爆。 如果你持有现金头寸，去为极端抛售寻找便宜货，例如$CIFR下跌16%至14美元，而不是恐慌性地卖出你自己的头寸。 否则，这类事件通常只是短期的冲击，我们可能会看到在10月下旬降息前的恢复。当然，前提是股票没有像$QLCM、$NKE、$MU、$CDNS等那样受到中国收入的实质性影响。 （我没有预料到反应的严重程度，今天损失了不少，但将持有头寸）。
英文原文
Getting Vietnam flashbacks. Jokes aside, markets dropped 3.65%+ after Trump tarrifs Chinese imports by 100% and restricts the export of critical software to China. This surprise event was rational repricing but also catalyzed by fear + margin calls (after hours, with $IREN dropping 21% for example, or $BTC dropping to $107k). What this typically foreshadows is slower growth and higher inflation (lower rate cut odds). However, Polymarket and Fed futures data still shows 70-72% of 3 rate cuts by 2025. Midterm elections next year are also generally bullish for stocks. And we're approaching end of season seasonality, which is typically the best for stocks. And of course, many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG (eg. Draftkings has nothing to do with China, imports, etc. since it's US sports related, but fell 9.4%) TLDR: likely a short term tariff shock, mild macro risk, and a overall sell-off from fear, but into recovery. Now that markets are closed, a lot of money can be made is in times of low liquidity high-spread like after-hours/overnight (during earlier tariffs, $HOOD dropped from $45 to $28 overnight then went on a massive rally to $100+). Random events like these are why I don't recommend options as positions can be nuked up in an instant. If you have cash positions, go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14, instead of panic selling your own positions. Otherwise, things like these are usually short term from shock, and we'll likely see a recovery frontrunning rate cut in late October. That of course if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS, etc. (I didn't expect the extent of the reaction, lost a decent amount today, but will hold positions).