$NKE
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LULU 不该找 Nike 老将
只是个想法……也许别请一个 $NKE 的“老将”来领导 $LULU 的品牌重启？ 这就像 PayPal 去请前 HP 的 CEO 一样。 我真的无语了。 https://t.co/GAE7
英文原文
Just a thought… Maybe don’t hire a $NKE “veteran” to lead the $LULU brand revival? It’s the equivalent of PayPal hiring the former HP CEO. I’m just speechless. https://t.co/GAE7pnx8qJ
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用生活经验说明 Nike 已经失去吸引力。
$NKE 是个很好的例子，说明要相信你在现实生活中的直觉。 - 如果你发现大家都在穿 Oncloud / New Balance，而不是 Nike - 如果你发现大家都穿 Vuori 或 Lululemon 的短裤，而不是 Nike - 甚至休闲 / 运动服都去买优衣库 / GU，而不是 Nike 那你在本地 Walmart 或 Ross 折扣店里唯一还能看到 Nike 的地方，大概就只有那儿了。 Nike 明显已经失去了它的“酷感”，而当股价是 26 倍前瞻市盈率时，也许市场上还有更好的多头。
英文原文
$NKE is a good lesson to trust your real life instincts. - If you see everyone wearing Oncloud / new balance shoes instead of Nike - You see everyone wearing vuori or lululemon shorts instead of Nike - Even Uniqlo / GU for casual/athletic wear instead of Nike Then the only place you see Nike are at your local Walmart or Ross discount stores. Nike has definitely lost its “cool factor” and when the stock is at 26 fwd p/e, maybe there’s better longs out there.
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调侃对方只盯着 NKE 价值投资，看不到 AI 超级周期。
@TheStockBro 当你只盯着 $NKE 的价值投资，而不是 AI 超级周期时，会觉得这不可能也很正常。
英文原文
@TheStockBro Makes sense to think it’s impossible when you’re tunnel visioned into $NKE value investing instead of AI supercycles
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关税冲击致市场恐慌，建议现金抄底非直接受损股，作者认亏持仓。
让人想起越南的闪回。 说笑归说笑，特朗普对中国进口商品加征100%关税并限制关键软件对华出口后，市场下跌超过3.65%。 这一突发事件是理性的重新定价，但也由恐惧和追加保证金通知（margin calls）所催化（盘后，例如$IREN下跌21%，或$BTC跌至10.7万美元）。 这通常预示着增长放缓和通胀上升（降息概率降低）。 然而，Polymarket和美联储期货数据仍显示到2025年有70-72%的概率进行3次降息。明年的中期选举通常对股市有利。而且我们正接近季节性行情的尾声，这通常对股市最有利。 当然，许多股票在交火中下跌，没有任何直接暴露，例如$UNH或$DKNG（例如Draftkings与中国、进口等无关，因为它是美国体育相关的，但下跌了9.4%）。 简而言之：可能是短期的关税冲击，轻微的宏观风险，以及由恐惧引发的整体抛售，但随后将恢复。 现在市场已关闭，在流动性低、利差大的时候（如盘后/隔夜）可以赚很多钱（在早期的关税事件中，$HOOD隔夜从45美元跌至28美元，随后大幅反弹至100美元以上）。 正是由于这类随机事件，我不建议持有期权，因为头寸可能会瞬间被核爆。 如果你持有现金头寸，去为极端抛售寻找便宜货，例如$CIFR下跌16%至14美元，而不是恐慌性地卖出你自己的头寸。 否则，这类事件通常只是短期的冲击，我们可能会看到在10月下旬降息前的恢复。当然，前提是股票没有像$QLCM、$NKE、$MU、$CDNS等那样受到中国收入的实质性影响。 （我没有预料到反应的严重程度，今天损失了不少，但将持有头寸）。
英文原文
Getting Vietnam flashbacks. Jokes aside, markets dropped 3.65%+ after Trump tarrifs Chinese imports by 100% and restricts the export of critical software to China. This surprise event was rational repricing but also catalyzed by fear + margin calls (after hours, with $IREN dropping 21% for example, or $BTC dropping to $107k). What this typically foreshadows is slower growth and higher inflation (lower rate cut odds). However, Polymarket and Fed futures data still shows 70-72% of 3 rate cuts by 2025. Midterm elections next year are also generally bullish for stocks. And we're approaching end of season seasonality, which is typically the best for stocks. And of course, many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG (eg. Draftkings has nothing to do with China, imports, etc. since it's US sports related, but fell 9.4%) TLDR: likely a short term tariff shock, mild macro risk, and a overall sell-off from fear, but into recovery. Now that markets are closed, a lot of money can be made is in times of low liquidity high-spread like after-hours/overnight (during earlier tariffs, $HOOD dropped from $45 to $28 overnight then went on a massive rally to $100+). Random events like these are why I don't recommend options as positions can be nuked up in an instant. If you have cash positions, go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14, instead of panic selling your own positions. Otherwise, things like these are usually short term from shock, and we'll likely see a recovery frontrunning rate cut in late October. That of course if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS, etc. (I didn't expect the extent of the reaction, lost a decent amount today, but will hold positions).