$GLD
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
-
博主称赞对方在AAOI、GLD和XLU上的优异表现。
@pepemoonboy 你在 $AAOI、$GLD 和 $XLU 上表现太棒了（'cooked' 指做得极好/大赚）。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy You cooked on $AAOI, $GLD, and $XLU
-
建议买入错杀标的而非传统对冲，并认可CRML的稀土受益逻辑。
我想指出一些超额收益机会：买入因错误原因下跌8%的标的（例如用于国防的美国无人机），而非像 $GLD / $SLV 这样的已知对冲工具。不过，如果讨论受益者，你提到的 $CRML 很棒，因为 Tanbreez 及其稀土矿藏。
英文原文
I just wanted to point out some alpha regarding buying into things down 8% for the wrong reason (eg. US drones for defense) rather than known hedges like $GLD / $SLV. But yes, if we talked about beneficiaries, your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!
-
区域银行恐慌是买入AI基建及新云厂商的良机，优选有真实营收支撑的标的。
宏观与回调思考 10月16日： 市场动态繁多，例如 $GLD 创历史新高，但这涉及美元的另一条复杂线索。今日股市主要下跌源于区域银行的冲击，因此我将聚焦于此。 以下是极佳的买入机会： 拥有确认的 Mag7 合同的新云厂商(Neoclouds) - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) 等。 AI 基础设施建设(AI Buildout) - 半导体如 $TSM（强烈买入，这类在爆发式财报后似乎总是回调以清洗看涨期权）。我们已有爆发式财报数据及增长的利润率+远期营收，$TSM 是我见过最简单的做多标的。TSM 的印钞能力也支持这一建设论点。 - 能源如 $FLNC 可能因数据中心建设+AI 使用带来的重估而继续上涨。 加密货币 - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 都是极好的买入点，但我对 $CRCL 等会稍加谨慎。人们可能对 2023 年 Silvergate 倒闭及 USDC 脱钩仍有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。 某些股票急需修正： - 量子计算 - 机器人/无人机 - 关键矿产（仅特定标的可能优质） 这些公司零营收却因炒作呈抛物线增长。 区别在于，新云厂商+AI 基础设施建设是基于执行确认的营收。它们虽都是国家安全风险，但 AI 建设有全球最富有的超大规模云厂商背书。 “$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL 等今年资本支出预计达 3200 亿。”- BI “$META, OpenAI 和 $ORCL 宣布未来几年将在数据中心投入超 1 万亿美元。”- BI 具体发生的情况： 市场今日因区域银行担忧下跌，但可能被夸大。最新恐慌源于 Zion/Western Alliance 的借款人欺诈。我猜测是个别银行问题，而非会导致信贷紧缩的系统性银行崩溃。 两周后降息概率接近 98%。这是全面必要的修正（以清除泡沫）+杠杆交易+期权流向。利用此次修正做多。 这仍是整个 AI 建设的最早期阶段，我预计 $NBIS 为例，1 年内 ARR 将增至 45 亿-70 亿+，市值从当前增至 600 亿+。 再次强调，新云厂商的炒作源于远期营收增长（基本面），而量子/部分无人机公司的炒作基于承诺。现在是扩大拥有疯狂远期营收增长（将导致市值大幅重估）公司多头的完美时机，而非仅如量子计算般的行业叙事/投机。
英文原文
Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th: There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD. Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that. It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc. AI Buildout - Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls). We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen. TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis. - Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use. Crypto - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though. People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging. It's a much needed correction for certain stocks: - Quantum - Robotics/Drones - Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good) That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype. _ The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution. They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it. " $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI " $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI _ In terms of what happened in specific: Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud. My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening. We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long. This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here. Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc. are based around promises. It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.