2026-03-31 · 供应链分析

AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项

涉及标的： $AAPL $AMZN $AXTI $GOOGL $META $MP $ORCL $TSLA $USAR

中文翻译

Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本这是一个全球化的供应链。虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。

英文原文

Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.

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