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感谢早期粉丝的长期关注与支持。
@adenois 哇，非常感谢你成为最早阅读我帖子并一直关注的人之一！我在心里为所有我的 $RDDT 朋友们保留了一个特别的位置。
英文原文
@adenois Wow thanks for being one of the first people to read my posts and still following along! I keep a special place in my heart for all my $RDDT friends.
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引用三星NAND涨价100%报道，印证供应短缺。
@srikyada 帖子中已经明确引用了。但这是三星(Samsung)的版本：“三星电子，第一季度NAND价格上调100%……‘供应跟不上需求’”——电子新闻(ET News)
英文原文
@srikyada It’s literally cited in the post. But this is the SK version: “삼성전자, 1분기 낸드 가격 100% 인상…“공급이 수요 못 따라간다” - 전자신문 (ET News)
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博主感谢粉丝评论，表示已阅读但无法一一回复。
@damnang2 非常感谢！ 借此机会，我很想回复这里每一条友好的评论，但实在太多了。 不过我确实已经阅读了大家到目前为止的所有留言。
英文原文
@damnang2 Thank you so much! Just piggybacking off this, I’d love to every other nice comment here but there’s just way too many. But I did read everyone’s message so far though
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美光涨价打破传统模型，估值难追股价。
@sarfatti_IR 是的，这对 $MU 来说太惊人了，而且所有这些涨价都打破了传统建模。我又做了一些计算，前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)可能会压缩至约 8.2-8.5 倍，对应 77.2% 的毛利率。估值无法跟上股价的步伐。
英文原文
@sarfatti_IR Yeah this is incredible for $MU and all these price hikes break traditional modeling. I did some calculations again and forward p/e might compress to ~8.2-8.5 of 77.2% gross margins The valuation can’t keep up with the stock price
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美光涨价利好，前瞻PE降至8.9倍，股价滞后于基本面改善。
@TechEquityEng 随着这一疯狂的涨价，一些粗略估算(quick estimates)可能将 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(forward p/e)从之前的预期拉回到约 8.9 倍。 美光(Micron)的基本面每天都在变得更便宜，而股价却无法跟上。
英文原文
@TechEquityEng With this insane price hike, some napkin math calculations might bring $MU back to forward p/e ~8.9 from previous expectations. Micron fundamentally keeps getting cheaper every day and stock price can’t keep up.
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对比SICC、COHR与WOLF在300mm晶圆技术路线上的差异。
@Zlack00 SICC 在 2024 年进行了展示，$COHR 在 2025 年 12 月拥有其 300mm 里程碑。 $WOLF 声称是首个 300mm “单晶”晶圆。其他则被声称是多晶或低质量衬底。因此措辞很微妙。https://t.co/fH2GCc2G5c
英文原文
@Zlack00 SICC had a showcase in 2024, $COHR has its own 300mm milestone in December 2025. $WOLF claimed to be first 300mm "single crystal" wafer. Others were claimed to be poly-crystal or low-quality substrates. So wording is nuanced. https://t.co/fH2GCc2G5c
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将COHR比作西方欣兴，强调其在多领域供应链瓶颈中的关键地位。
@platochi $COHR 就像西方的欣兴电子（Unimicron）（指它们在未来瓶颈环节如碳化硅(SiC)到磷化铟(InP)中无处不在，并非比较上下游关系）。当我在太空、机器人、人工智能领域进行供应链映射时，我喜欢投资那些在多个地方频繁出现的公司。
英文原文
@platochi $COHR is like the Western Unimicron (in the sense they show up everywhere on future bottlenecks like SiC to InP, not comparing downstream/upstream). When I do these supply chain mapping in space, robotics, AI, I like to invest in ones that just pop up multiple places.
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澄清ACLS用于SiC功率器件而非中介层，或涉及电源链。
@FrontRangeHQ 我相当确定 $ACLS 用于碳化硅(SiC)功率器件，而不是碳化硅(SiC)中介层？ 不过它们可能会出现在电源输送链中。
英文原文
@FrontRangeHQ Pretty sure $ACLS is used in SiC power devices, not SiC interposers? They might show up in the power delivery chain though.
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.
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指出针对WOLF的可转债套利策略。
@foogleman1234 那可能是针对 $WOLF 的可转债套利(convertible note arbitrage)。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 That's probably convertible note arbitrage with $WOLF
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发布西方供应链瓶颈小盘股清单，警示瓶颈不等于好投资。
@__EthanHunt__ 我在潜在瓶颈列表中列出了 $WOLF，这家公司确实很有趣。但“瓶颈”和“好投资”之间是有区别的。我觉得我做的尽职调查(DD)不能白费，所以干脆把它发出来了。 https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
英文原文
@__EthanHunt__ I listed $WOLF in my list of potential bottlenecks, and the company genuinely is interesting. But there's a difference between "bottleneck" and good investment. Felt my the DD I did would go to waste, so ended up just posting it. https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
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WOLF虽具300mm SiC垄断优势，但高债与稀释使其成财务陷阱。
$WOLF（市值4.64亿美元）是“看空-看多”悖论的典型代表。 Wolfspeed凭借碳化硅(SiC)晶圆被视为AI领域的圣杯。 这家晶圆代工厂上周刚刚制造出全球首片300mm单晶SiC晶圆。 $NVDA的Rubin架构及后续架构很可能需要300mm SiC中介层(interposers)，而Wolfspeed是目前全球唯一能实现这一点的公司。 他们获得了7.5亿美元以上的《芯片法案》拨款，对美国国家安全至关重要。 我将此列为一个瓶颈环节，但关键在于： 这是一个负企业价值(EV)陷阱： - 9.26亿美元现金，21亿美元债务，4.65亿美元市值 - EV约为16亿美元。 此外还有： -> 可转换票据#1 约3.314亿美元。基于10亿美元隐含股权价值转换为新股。 -> 瑞萨(Renesas)可转换票据#2 约2.04亿美元（占总股份的13.6%） 2025年12月15日，Wolfspeed提交招股书，注册1130万股供“出售股东”使用。 这些是破产期间以股权代替现金的前债权人。 所以... Wolfspeed是2027年SiC中介层论点的核心，因为它们在美国制造且拥有巨大护城河。 但在他们能实现大规模量产并掩盖可转换债券、债务和稀释影响之前，这看起来像个陷阱。 从纸面上看，由于拥有全球首片300mm SiC晶圆且作为美国公司具有垄断地位，这是AI愿景股中的圣杯。 但财务上这是一颗地雷。 披露：我未持有任何头寸，只是想分享我的研究结果。
英文原文
$WOLF ($464M) is the paradigm of the "Bear-Bull" Paradox. Wolfspeed is the holy grail of AI with SiC wafers. And this foundry just made the world’s first 300mm single-crystal SiC wafer last week. $NVDA Rubin + architectures likely need 300mm SiC interposers and Wolfspeed is the only company in the world currently that can do it. They're critical to US national security with $750M+ in chips act grants. I listed this as a bottleneck but here's the catch: This is a negative EV trap: - $926M cash, $2.1B debt, $465m MC Ev would be roughly ~$1.6B. Then you have -> Convertible Notes #1 ~$331.4 Million. Convertible into New Common Stock based on an implied equity value of $1.0 Billion. -> Renesas Convertible Notes #2 ~ $204 Million. (13.6% of the total shares) December 15, 2025, Wolfspeed filed a prospectus to register 11.3 million shares for "selling stockholders" These are the former creditors who took equity instead of cash during the bankruptcy. So... Wolfspeed is central to the SiC Interposer thesis for 2027 as they're made in America and are have a massive moat. But this just looks like a trap right unless they can get this to massive scale and overshadow any convertibles, debt, and dilution. This is on paper the holy grail of AI moonshots since they have the world's first 300mm SiC wafer and are a monopoly in as a US company. But financially this is a landmine. Disclosure: I own no positions, just wanted to post my findings.
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OPTT虽受Andruil概念炒作波动大，但高负债下稀释风险极高。
关于 $OPTT，我曾向他人评论称，由于 Andruil 相关的合同与合作伙伴关系炒作，该股极易出现大幅波动（因此有利可图）。但他们仅有 1100 万美元现金，却背负 1000 万美元债务和 1700 万美元负债，因此一旦有散户兴趣，稀释股本的可能性极高。除非我遗漏了某些超额收益(alpha)信息，否则资本稀释似乎迫在眉睫。
英文原文
For $OPTT, I made this comment to someone else where it's really susceptible to large movements (so profitable), bc there's hype on contracts like partnerships feeding into Andruil. But they have $11m cash and $10m debt with $17m liabilities so it seems incredibly likely they’ll dilute if there's any retail interest. Feels like capital dilution is imminent unless there's any alpha i missed
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看好AEHR作为HBM4等关键技术的收费亭角色。
@PhotonCap 同意！我特别喜欢 $AEHR，尤其是因为它是许多领域（如 HBM4、碳化硅(SiC)晶圆、光子学等）的“收费亭”。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Agreed! I really like $AEHR especially, since they're a toll booth for a lot of things like hbm4, SiC wafers, photonics, etc
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WLAC IPO延期至2026年中，但获1.27亿合同显利好。
@Sumojoe118 我看好 $WLAC，但他们从原定的2025年第四季度IPO严重延期，推迟到了2026年6月30日。因此，由于目前处于沉寂期，我此前并未过多评论，但最近获得的1.27亿美元FluidStack合同确实非常看涨。
英文原文
@Sumojoe118 I liked $WLAC, but they got heavily delayed from their Q4 2025 IPO, and extended it to June 30, 2026. So haven't really commented since it's in a lull state, but the $127m fluidstack contract recently is really bullish.
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长期看好RKLB，但因短期高估暂不纳入短中期名单。
@AstronautCoin 长期来看，$RKLB 可能是我最看多的股票。不过短期来看它被严重高估。所以我暂时将其排除在外。这更像是一份我的短中期观察名单。
英文原文
@AstronautCoin Long term, $RKLB is probably my most bullish stock. Short term though it's pretty overvalued. So I just leave them out. This is more like a short-med term list for me.
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提及无人机及战争板块个股机会，强调研究充分后再评论。
没问题！像 $RCAT、$PDYN 这样的无人机板块股票也有很多，从主题上看应该也是看涨的。只是需要关注的股票太多了，如果我对某只股票的研究还不够深入，我尽量不去评论。$OSS 未来应该会很有趣，因为有战争板块的顺风因素。
英文原文
No problem! There's a lot of drone sector stocks like $RCAT, $PDYN too that should be thematically bullish. There's just too many stocks to look at and I try not to comment if I didn't do enough research into them yet. $OSS should be interesting going forward with War sector tailwinds
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看好MRAM高上行空间，修正VELO资产负债表数据但仍认为其一般。
$MRAM 很有意思。资产负债表良好，且拥有极高的上行垂直空间。 另外需要纠正一下上面关于 $VELO 的说法，他们手头约有 4990 万美元现金 - 1100 万美元（第四季度支出），所以现在可能持有 3800 万美元，负债 2300 万美元 | 总负债 6400 万美元，看起来稍好一些。但资产负债表仍然不是最好的。
英文原文
$MRAM is interesting. Good balance sheet, and very high upside vertical. Also need to make a correction to $VELO above, they have around $49.9M in cash -$11m Q4, so they're probably sitting on $38m now with $23m debt | $64m in liabilities, which looks slightly better. But still not the best balance sheet.
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分析SHMD、COPX及UAMY的投资逻辑与潜力
我之前一直在研究 $SHMD，因为其客户据报包括 $AVGO。但我至今仍未理清做多该股的逻辑。 我将 $COPX 归类为铜板块。 $UAMY 是做多锑的绝佳标的，它是美国少数玩家之一。其 2.45 亿美元的独家供应合同对于战略储备而言规模巨大。
英文原文
I've been looking into $SHMD awhile back since one of their customers was reportedly $AVGO. But still can't wrap my head around taking a long position yet. I put $COPX up there as Copper. $UAMY is an amazing long for antimony one of the only US players. $245m sole source contract is huge too for stockpiles.
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博主计划研究$EOPSF，但坦言对定向能武器领域不熟悉。
@ShortSeller 我还没研究过，但鉴于 $EOPSF 看起来很有趣，我很快就会去研究。不幸的是，我对定向能武器（energy weapons）领域不太熟悉。https://t.co/6XddprIHda
英文原文
@ShortSeller Haven't research it yet but I will soon since $EOPSF seems interesting. I'm not well versed in energy weapons unfortunately. https://t.co/6XddprIHda
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Oracle因过度依赖OpenAI面临巨大交易对手风险，长期前景堪忧。
尽管$ORCL股价在300多美元时，我也曾表达过类似观点，当时他们预测资本支出(Capex)将在一年内从250亿美元激增至500亿美元以上。这是为了履行5000多亿美元的积压订单。但当客户是OpenAI（例如3000亿美元的Stargate项目）时，这些积压订单的意义就变了。他们借入巨额资金只为单一客户建设，而鉴于OpenAI的其他合同义务，这构成了最明显且极端的交易对手风险。加上在Gemini面前失去收入份额，他们最终违约的可能性越来越大。我高度怀疑Sam Altman能否维持1万亿美元以上的合同义务，即使进行IPO（他们前几天刚与Cerebras签署了另一项100多亿美元的合同）+ 他们只是在传播风险传染，试图在资金耗尽时获得美国政府的兜底。这种对可疑交易对手的债务扩张掩盖了其其他业务板块，我认为市场上有很多更好的做多标的，而不是去赌OpenAI。当然这只是我的观点，我们可能会看到因Softbank等近期对OpenAI的注资而带来的Oracle短期反弹，但我不认为这种势头能持续多年。
英文原文
I've been saying this about $ORCL in the 300's though too when they projected $25B capex to $50B+ in just 1 year time. This is to fulfill $500B+ in backlog. But that backlog doesn't matter when it's OpenAI (eg. $300B Stargate). They're borrowing so much to build out on a sole customer, which happens to be the most obvious + extreme counterparty risk given OpenAI's other contractual obligations. When you compound that with losing revenue share to Gemini, it looks increasingly likely they'll default at some point. I have high doubts Sam will find a way to sustain $1T+ in contractual obligations, even with an IPO (they just signed another $10B+ one with Cerebras the other day) + are just spreading contagion so they try and get backstopped by US government if they run out of funds. This type of debt buildout on a questionable counterparty overshadows their other business verticals, and my opnion is that there's a lot better longs out there than taking a risk on OpenAI. Just my opnion though, we might see a short term oracle recovery bc of openai's recent funding from softbank and others but I don't think it can be sustained over the years.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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调侃NBIS未造军用激光致持仓成本过高
@Neomeldir $NBIS 不幸的是并不为美国国防部制造死光激光武器。如果他们真的这么做，并将其安装在 Avride 的自动驾驶出租车上，我的持仓成本(PT)就会是 $500。
英文原文
@Neomeldir $NBIS unfortunately doesn't make death ray lasers for US DoD. If they did and attached them to Avride robotaxis, my PT would be $500.
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梳理高纯铜、铜钨及铜基建相关的美股标的。
@Ren_aramb 好问题，对于高纯度铜（无氧铜/铜铬锆合金），是 $FCX 和 $SCCO。 $MTRN 用于铜钨合金(Copper-Tungsten)。 $APH 和 $TEL 用于引擎到激光器之间的铜基础设施。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Good question, so for high purity copper (OFHC Copper / CuCrZr), $FCX and $SCCO. $MTRN for CuW (Copper-Tungsten). $APH and $TEL for copper infra between engine -> laser.
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LASR激光武器走红，但作者认为其非良好投资标的。
我只是说这是一家做“激光定向能武器”的很酷的公司，而且正在走红。但这并不意味着 $LASR 是一笔好的投资（我目前没有任何持仓）。但我确实看到，如果他们成功开发出能向下照射任何人或物的“死光”激光，那将具有令人捧腹的潜力。
英文原文
I'm just saying it's a really cool company that does these "laser directed energy weapons" that's going viral. But that doesn't mean $LASR is a good investment (I have no positions yet). But I do see there being hilarious potential if they successfully build out death ray lasers that can beam down anyone or anything.
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未持有LASR因增长预期不足，但认可其技术实力。
@goAI88 我没有持有 $LASR 的头寸。不过要感谢 @pennycheck 之前向我介绍了这家公司。 我只是觉得 26% 的同比(Y/Y)营收增长预期吸引力不够。 但他们确实正在做非常、非常酷的事情。
英文原文
@goAI88 I have no positions in $LASR. Shoutout to @pennycheck for telling me about this company earlier on though. I just didn't find 26% Y/Y projected revenue growth attractive enough. But they are doing extremely, extremely cool stuff though.
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推荐 $LASR 作为定向能武器领域最纯粹的投资标的。
$LASR (NLight) 是一家市值 22 亿美元的美国公司，从事定向能武器 (Directed Energy Weapons) 业务。他们制造“死光”——用于拦截弹道导弹和高超音速导弹的激光武器。这项技术可被改造为从太空向地球发射的轨道“死光”。以色列的“铁束”系统 (Iron Beam，激光防空系统) 也采用了 NLight 的技术。因此，如果你想投资定向能武器，$LASR 是最纯粹的投资标的。
英文原文
$LASR (NLight), a $2.2B US company does these directed energy weapons. They build the "Death Ray" - Lasers that shoot down ballistic and hypersonic missiles. This can be adapted to Orbital death rays beaming from Space down to Earth. Israel's Iron Beam system (Laser Air Defense) uses NLight too. So if you want to invest in Directed Energy Weapons, $LASR is the purest play.
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博主回应请求，计划明日发布包含SKYT等标的的深度研报。
@DonkeyCapital69 没问题，我明天会写一篇。这类深度研报(writeups)非常耗时！ 我回顾了一些2025年的旧案例，比如南亚科(Nanya)。它在短短3个月内涨幅超过100%，这简直太疯狂了。 这次我会加入一些大家询问我反馈的标的，比如 $SKYT 或 $VELO。
英文原文
@DonkeyCapital69 Sure, I’ll do one tomorrow. Those types of writeups take a lot of time! Was looking at some old ones back in 2025 like Nanya. Ended up 100%+ in just 3 months, which is crazy. I’ll add some stuff like $SKYT or $VELO this time that people asked my feedback on.
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INTC财报重创持仓，但已对冲，下周拟利用波动率下降寻找机会。
@platochi 哭吧，$INTC 的财报评论摧毁了我半导体投资组合的其余部分。说笑归说笑，下周可能会寻找机会，因为做市商(MMs)正在打压隐含波动率(IV)，人们开始恐慌性抛售他们的虚值看涨期权(OTM calls)。幸运的是，我在财报前对冲了大量头寸。
英文原文
@platochi Cry as $INTC ER comments nukes the rest of my semi portfolio. Jokes aside probably looking for opportunities next week as MMs crush IV + people start panic selling their OTM calls. Luckily I hedged a ton for earnings
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.