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询问博通v8供应链及BOM信息，认为利好该股。
@jukan05 哇，这对 $AVGO 来说立刻就是看多的。你碰巧有 v8 供应链/物料清单(BOM) 的信息吗？
英文原文
@jukan05 Wow that’s immediately bullish for $AVGO. Do you have the info of the v8 supply chain/bom by any chance?
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作者因供应链优势加仓COHR，并因不确定性提前降低LITE风险。
这取决于你。至于我，我个人在$COHR下跌10%时加仓了，与需要购买基板的$LITE相比，他们受到的实质性影响较小。Coherent拥有自己的生产设施（尽管有限），并且可以采购原料。但对于当市场发现$LITE等公司在供应链上的近期影响时会如何反应，我不确定（这也是我 earlier 降低风险的原因）。
英文原文
That's up to you. As for me, I personally added $COHR on the 10% drop, they're less materially affected compared to $LITE that needs to buy the substrates. Coherent has their own their own production facilities (albeit limited), and can source feedstock. But uncertain about how markets might react near-term impact on the supply chain for $LITE and others when they find out (which is why I derisked earlier).
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推测AI供应链将现极端瓶颈，看好AXTI的垄断地位并买入。
是的，观点类似。我不知道接下来会发生什么，我只是推测未来几个月会出现极端的瓶颈。我指出大多数分析师不知道如何正确建模像 $AXTI 这样的极端边缘情况，因为这在历史上从未发生过。当这家小公司瓶颈化了全球所有最大科技公司价值15万亿美元以上的AI建设时，很难通过传统的市销率(P/S)、市盈率(P/E)等来评估这家有效垄断企业10亿美元的估值。我只是预期会出现高带宽内存(HBM)那样的情景，并通过最纯粹的方式买入 $AXTI 以押注瓶颈，至于结果如何我毫无头绪。
英文原文
Yep, similar take. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just speculating that there's an extreme bottleneck over the next few months. And I'm pointing out that most analysts do not know how to model extreme edge cases like $AXTI correctly because this has not happened before in history. It's really hard to value a $1B effective monopoly through traditional P/S, P/E, etc. when that tiny company bottlenecks the $15T+ AI buildout from all your biggest tech companies in the world. I'm just expecting an HBM scenario and buying into the bottleneck through the purest exposure way possible in $AXTI, no clue how this turns out.
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AXTI垄断InP衬底，出口管制下可通过提价而非扩产实现价值重估。
出口管制是最大的风险。但他们日本供应链中的两大竞争对手刚刚被禁止出口。因此，现在 $AXTI 以及通过一步跳板的中国，控制了磷化铟(InP)衬底和材料的流向。我认为许多分析师在建模时忽略的一点是，这并非关于扩大产量或数量，而是基于供应有限的关键资源进行定价。这就是博弈论在资源分配中的应用，类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的情况，但不同的是主要只有一个玩家。磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，$GOOGL 愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其 Ironwood 项目不会停滞。其他超大规模云服务商也是如此。当各方开始争夺配额时，TAM 将从数亿美元跃升至数十亿甚至 100 亿美元以上。而 $AXTI 在两个不同瓶颈环节占据垄断地位，市值却仅为 12 亿美元左右。例如，价格增加 3000% 在专用集成电路(ASIC)集群的物料清单(BOM)价值中仅占百分之几。在出口管制下，你不需要生产多 3000% 的材料，只需提高价格即可。
英文原文
Export controls is the biggest risk. But their two biggest competitors over in the Japanese supply chain just got export control banned. So now $AXTI and by one hop, China, controls the flow of InP substrates and materials. I think what a lot of analysts miss when modelling this is that it's not about scaling up production or quantity, it's about pricing based on a critical resource with finite supply. This is where game theory comes into play about resource allocation like what's going on with HBM, but instead of multiple players you mainly have one. The TAM of InP earlier few hundred million because it was a niche telecom product. Now, $GOOGL would happily pay billions just so their ironwood program doesn't stall out. Same with every other hyperscaler. Then TAM goes from few hundred million to few billions or $10B+ when they start fighting for allocations. And MC is still only $1.2Bish for a monopolistic position in two different bottlenecks. A 3000%+ increase for example in price would only be a few percent BOM value in an asic cluster. You don't need to produce 3000% more material with export controls, just increase the prices.
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日本InP出口管制或致光模块产能瓶颈，作者减持相关风险敞口。
我们正目睹市场的第三阶效应，$LITE、$AAOI 及光子学板块遭遇血洗，跌幅超 10%。 原因多重，包括 SanDisk 下跌 10%+ 引发的板块拖累及其他抛售。 但我的细微观点是：由于日本出口管制，整个日本供应链的磷化铟(InP)库存/产能可能耗尽，而这正是西方大规模光模块建设所必需的。 我不会将 $COHR 与其他光子学玩家混为一谈，但他们已面临产能紧张，且受住友、JX 影响，情况可能恶化。 这将导致 $LITE 等缺乏 InP 来为 $GOOGL TPU Ironwood 等生产光模块的公司产能受限。 然而，若出现以下情况，这种影响将被抵消，我们可能看到持续反弹： -> 下游如高带宽内存(HBM)的定价溢价抵消产品短缺。 -> 日本以某种方式解除 InP 出口禁令（不太可能）。 -> 若 $AXTI 在获得 1 亿美元融资翻倍产能后，能向西方供应商大规模交付衬底，事情将顺利进行。 总之，我想从供应链角度提供另一种视角，因为鲜有人评论这一点。 鉴于本周看到的出口管制风险及 $AXTI 的新垄断瓶颈，我个人已移除部分光模块敞口风险。但我不是空头，不会利用这一点。 我对整体板块极度看好，但对光子学玩家（是风险厌恶抛售延续还是反弹）的走势毫无头绪。
英文原文
We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out of InP inventory/capacity from Japanese export controls, required for the western optical buildout at scale. I wouldn’t quite lump $COHR in with the other photonics players but while they’re already capacity strained, it’s likely going to get worse with Sumitomo, JX affected. This would capacity strain $LITE and others who would lack the inp to produce opticals for $GOOGL TPU Ironwood and others. However this would be offset and we might see a continued rally if -> pricing premium downstream like HBM would offset any product supply shortage. -> Japan manages to remove the export control InP ban in some way (unlikely) -> if $AXTI delivers the substrates at scale to western suppliers (after their $100m funding to double capacity), things will proceed. That being said just wanted to offer another perspective on the drop since I haven’t really seen anyone comment on this from the supply chain angle. I personally removed some optical exposure risk after seeing the supply chain vulnerability this week from export controls and the new monopolistic bottleneck by $AXTI. But I’m not a short seller so I wouldn’t take advantage of it. I’m extremely bullish on the overall segment, but no clue what’s going to happen (whether risk-off selloff continues or rebound) for photonics players.
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住友受出口管制引发下游产能瓶颈，故减持光子股，COHR例外。
我不做空，也不想发布看空光学公司的帖子，但我短期卖出了其他光子学持仓，因为住友电工(Sumitomo)受到出口管制，因此通过二级效应，$LITE、$AAOI 等下游公司会出现产能问题。 $COHR 算是个奇怪的例外，不确定为什么他们被归入其余公司，因为他们自己生产晶圆。
英文原文
I don’t short sell + didn’t want to publish bear posts about optical companies but I sold my other photonic positions short term because Sumitomo got export controlled so by second order effect $LITE, $AAOI and others would have capacity issues downstream. $COHR is kinda the weird exception not sure why they got lumped in with the rest since they produce wafers themselves.
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回顾组合收益来源，反思仓位大小及交易策略。
谢谢！$OSS 和 $AXTI 是我投资组合中较小的部分。事后看来，我本应建立更大的头寸规模。我大部分的收益来自于利用投资组合保证金(portfolio margin)买入那些从去年高点下跌 50-70% 并在 1 月效应(Jan effect)中反弹的股票，如 $GLXY，以及像 $SOFI 或 $ASTS 这样仅下跌 10%+ 的交易性机会。除了可能 $CRDO 之外，我通常不发布我的做空(short trades)交易，而它从两天前已经上涨了超过 7%。
英文原文
Thanks! $OSS and $AXTI are smaller parts of my portfolio. I should have taken larger position sizes though in hindsight. Most of my gains came from portfolio margin into stocks that dropped 50-70% from last year into Jan effect like $GLXY, then just 10%+ trading drops like $SOFI or $ASTS. I don’t really post my short trades though aside from maybe $CRDO, which is up over 7% from two days ago
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博主回应他人并分享自己年内投资表现良好。
@moninvestor 年内的表现真不错！我自己也做得相当不错 https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
英文原文
@moninvestor Nice YTD! I’m doing pretty well myself https://t.co/pWPsMiM2Rl
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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AXTI通过掌控InP供应链实现定价权，涨价对TPU成本影响有限。
^ 澄清一下，$AXTI 掌控定价权。关于数量，指的是掌控磷化铟(InP)供应链的大部分份额。 他们拥有一定量的库存，这显然受中国许可证管制。 重点是，即使产能翻倍或翻三倍，如果你同时掌控供应链，就能掌控定价。你可以用有限的材料将价格提高100%+、500%、2000%，超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)仍会买单，因为没有替代品。 即便涨幅如此之大，由于此前价格占比极低，对TPU集群物料清单(BOM)的影响也仅增加几个百分点。
英文原文
^ clarification, $AXTI controls the price. Regarding quantity, that was referring to controlling majority of the InP supply chain. They have a certain amount of inventory, which obviously is controlled by China for permits. Point was that can double, triple, capacity, but if you control both the supply chain, you can control pricing. You can have finite material and increase prices 100%+, 500%, 2000%, and hyperscalers would still pay because there's no alternative. Even that much increase would only be a few percent increase on TPU cluster BOM because the price was so negligible before.
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AXTI因垄断磷化铟供应链，在AI基建中具极高价值，远超当前市值。
对于Q X P，$AXTI 在中国对日本实施出口管制后，在光子学(Photonics)领域的AI基础设施建设中，既控制了数量（受监管的垄断）也控制了价格（规模垄断）。 双头垄断(Duopoly)的消亡彻底改变了原有的定价结构。 磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，谷歌(Google)愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其整个TPU项目不会停滞。Meta、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)、英伟达(Nvidia)等也是如此。于是，TAM突然从数亿美元飙升至100亿美元以上。 再说一次，我不知道这会走向何方，因为不可能对从未发生过的极端情景（一家小盘公司控制着万亿美元AI基建的两个关键瓶颈）进行建模。 但当一家公司控制了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)扩展其项目所用材料的大部分供应链以及价格结构时，我认为其价值远高于13亿美元的市场资本化。
英文原文
For Q X P, $AXTI controls both quantity (regulated monopoly) as well as price (monopoly at scale) for the AI buildout with photonics after China's export control on Japan. The death of a duopoly completely changed any former pricing structure there was. The TAM of InP was few hundred million because it's a niche telecom product. Now, Google would happily pay billions just so their entire TPU program doesn't stall out. Same goes for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and others. Then TAM suddenly goes from few hundred million to $10B+. Again I don't know where this heads, it's impossible to model an extreme scenario that's never happened before (one small cap company controlling two different critical bottlenecks for the trillion AI buildout). But when the company controls majority of the supply chain as well as price structure of a material used for every hyperscaler to scale out their programs, I place a lot more value on it than $1.3B market cap.
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HBM 瓶颈导致传统建模失效，磷化铟成新瓶颈，$AXTI 因卡位 AI 建设具极高价值。
当出现像 $MU 或 SK 海力士的 HBM（高带宽内存）这样极不常规的瓶颈时，诸如 NTM（下一财年）这样的标准建模就会失效。目前 HBM 的需求极度缺乏弹性，买家不再询问价格，即使在价格飙升数百%后，他们仍在寻求配额分配。在这种情况下，基于 $NVDA 2025 年上半年 EML（边缘机器学习）的现有短缺，以及 $MSFT 等公司仅其项目就需要全球两位数的磷化铟(InP)产量（针对 2026 年下半年至 2027 年），$AXTI 很可能在接下来几个月成为下一个瓶颈。因此，当 $GOOGL 等超大规模云服务商为避免 TPU 项目停滞而迫切寻求配额时，原本数亿 TAM（总可寻址市场）可能迅速膨胀至数十亿甚至上百亿，这使得对瓶颈的建模变得不可能。这本质上是买入“比特分配”、原料控制和瓶颈环节。一家市值 13 亿美元的公司卡住了整个 AI 建设的脖子，在我看来很便宜。我不知道这会走向何方，但我预计会出现极大的价格挤压（我们在 SMM 上已看到迹象），这将增加 $AXTI 的底线利润。许可证波动一直是一个风险因素。但同样，任何延迟都会因为这是单点故障而卡住整个 AI 建设，前提是如果中国继续对日本实施出口管制。
英文原文
Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix. HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases. And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027. So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out. This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI. License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.
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博主调侃自己在 X 上与名人互动
@jukan05 现在我可以吹牛说我在 X 上和名人聊过天了
英文原文
@jukan05 now i can brag I've talked to someone famous on X
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质疑AXTI估值逻辑，指出AH股价波动源于低流动性。
如果市场试图将 $AXTI 2024年签约积压订单的收入确认时机计入当前结构性需求，我仍觉得有些好笑。但 $AH 的许多波动仅仅是因为流动性低（例如 $2 的买卖价差，仅100股的卖出就会导致价格下跌10%），让我们看看接下来几周会发生什么。
英文原文
I'm still chuckling if the market wants to price in $AXTI revenue recognition timing from 2024 contracted backlog over current structural demand. But a lot of the AH movement is just low liquidity (eg. $2 spread, one 100 share sale would drop the price 10%), but we'll see what happens in the upcoming weeks.
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AXTI因InP衬底垄断地位及全产业链优势受益，股价上涨逻辑多维。
$AXTI 从 Northland 获得 1 亿美元用于资本支出扩张，推迟的自由现金流（FCF）源自 2024 年或 2025 年初的 500 万美元合同收入，这并无实质性影响。 股价上涨是多方面的： -> 认识到磷化铟(InP)衬底将成为光子学领域 AI 行业部署的瓶颈 -> 认识到 InP 衬底生产是双寡头垄断（住友、$AXTI），还有 JX 等较小玩家 -> 认识到 InP 原料是 InP 衬底生产商（$AXTI、Vital）的另一个瓶颈，还有 $DOWA 等较小玩家 -> 来自 $COHR 等财报的供应短缺通知 -> 认识到西方超大规模云服务商在 12 月 24 日左右在伦敦金属交易所(SMM)价格之上支付溢价 -> 认识到两天前中国对日本实施出口管制后，AXT 实际上成为垄断者（这将限制其主要竞争对手的大规模衬底生产）。估计有 3-6 个月的库存。 7N 级产品价格已达历史新高，$AXTI 拥有从矿山到衬底生产的全产业链，因此西方超大规模云服务商与 SMM 之间的多次涨价和溢价分化将增加其底线利润。 我个人认为，在整个供应瓶颈出现之前，合同积压订单和推迟一个季度的合同收入（追溯至 2024 年或 2025 年初）并不构成实质性影响。但解读因人而异。
英文原文
$AXTI secured $100m from Northland for capex expansion, deferred FCF from $5m of contracted revenue from 2024 or early 2025 does not make a material difference. Stock runup was multifaceted: -> Recognition that InP substrates would bottleneck the AI industry deployment with photonics -> Recognition that InP substrate production was a duopoly (Sumitomo, $AXTI), with some smaller players like JX ->Recognition that InP feedstock was another bottleneck for the InP substrate producers ( $AXTI, Vital) with some smaller players like $DOWA. -> Supply shortage notice from earnings reports like $COHR -> Recognition that Western hypescalers are paying markups on top of SMM prices ~Dec 24th -> Recognition that AXT effectively became a monopoly after China's export controls on Japan 2 days ago (which would limit substrate production at scale from AXT's major competitor). Est 3-6 months inventory. 7n prices have hit ATHs, $AXTI owns the mines all the way to substrate production so many price increases and bifurcation in premiums between western hyperscalers + SMM would increase their bottom line. I personally don't consider contracted backlog and 1 quarter deferred contracted revenue all the way back from 2024 or early 2025 to be material before the entire supply chokepoint started. But to each their own interpretation.
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欢迎RJCcapital加入讨论
@RJCcapital 欢迎加入派对
英文原文
@RJCcapital Welcome to the party
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当然，我不是来试图说服你们的，我只是发布我自己关于 $AXTI 的投资论点。 我要指出的细微差别是，该公司受益于 AI 基础设施建设，此前该领域遭遇了铜互连瓶颈，现在正转向光子学以及新型互连和 ASIC 架构。 直到 2025 年后期，超大规模云服务商才真正开始确保外调制激光器(EML)的产能。 磷化铟(InP)衬底是光子学 AI 基础设施建设所需的关键材料，而此前的铜代或旧架构并不需要。
英文原文
Sure, I’m not here to convince you I’m just posting my own thesis about $AXTI. The nuance I’ll point out is that this is levered to the AI buildout that hit the copper wall and is shifting to photonics with newer interconnects and ASIC architectures. Only later on in 2025 did hyperscalers really start securing EML capacity. InP substrates is a critical material required for the AI buildout with photonics, not previous copper generations or former architectures.
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指出某标的流动性低且买卖价差大。
@straightcash385 流动性很低，买卖价差在 19 美元和 21 美元之间，哈哈 https://t.co/W1cQJYo6Hn
英文原文
@straightcash385 It’s low liquidity, the spread is $19 and $21 lol https://t.co/W1cQJYo6Hn
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AXTI股价波动属旧账延期，核心应关注衬底瓶颈与InP涨价。
$AXTI 简而言之：人们正对一年前签约收入因延期一个季度而过度反应。此处并未报告前瞻性收入指引。相比于2024年的签约收入，我更关注实时的衬底(Substrate)瓶颈以及磷化铟(InP)价格的上涨。
英文原文
$AXTI TLDR: people are overreacting to contracted revenue from over a year ago being deferred by a quarter. There was no forward revenue guidance reported here. I care more about the real-time substrate bottleneck and increasing InP prices than 2024 contracted revenue.
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切断关键材料将引发中美全面贸易战，双方受损。
@valuedrift @4drant 英伟达(Nvidia) GPU与美国贸易。如果他们切断关键材料流向美国，将引发一场两败俱伤的全面贸易战。
英文原文
@valuedrift @4drant Nvidia GPUs and American trade. There would be a full blown trade war that hurts both sides if they stop the flow of critical materials to US
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澄清无前瞻指引，仅为旧合同及收入递延反应
@4drant 没有前瞻性指引。这纯粹是对一年前签订的合同以及一个季度收入递延的反应。
英文原文
@4drant There’s no forward guidance. This is solely a reaction to the contracts made a year ago with one quarter revenue deferral.
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预计磷化铟短缺带来博弈论配置机会，算法或先猎杀止损。
@dl123abc @william_R2Rclub 嗯，如果我是算法，我会进行止损猎杀(stop loss hunting)——首先触发任何散户的短期恐慌性抛售。 我预计目前会出现严重的磷化铟(InP)短缺，并在未来2-3个季度内出现博弈论类型的资金配置，因此这提供了一个相当不错的机会。
英文原文
@dl123abc @william_R2Rclub Hmm, if I were an algorithm, I’d go stop loss hunting -> trigger any retail short term panic sellers first. Im expecting a major InP shortage around now and game theory type allocations over the next 2-3 quarters, so this presents a pretty good opportunity.
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AXTI基板瓶颈缓解，SMM价格改善，定价权增强。
@itsdsha 自发布关于当前基板(substrate)瓶颈的帖子以来，已经过去了整整13天。我观察到 $AXTI 的硅微机械(SMM)价格有所不同，且未来的定价能力增强，但人们可以自由卖出，如果他们对2024年合同产生的递延收入做出反应的话。 https://t.co/Sxuw0B3rez
英文原文
@itsdsha It’s been a solid 13 days since posting about the substrate bottleneck happening now. I’m seeing something different with SMM prices and increased future pricing power with $AXTI, but people are free to sell if they want to react to deferred revenue from contracts made in 2024. https://t.co/Sxuw0B3rez
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AXTI因短期合同被错杀，当前短缺期远期估算更关键。
@william_R2Rclub 是的，我笑得很开心，$AXTI 因为 2024-2025 年初的合同加上第一季度递延被抛售，而实际上当前的短缺/价格挤压期间，远期估算才是最重要的。此外，小盘股盘后流动性不足也会造成很大差异。
英文原文
@william_R2Rclub Yeah I was laughing a lot that $AXTI got sold off on 2024-early 2025 contracts + 1Q deferral when forward estimates matter the most during the actual shortage/price squeeze happening now. After hour lack of liquidity on a small cap makes quite a difference too
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指出市场忽视InP瓶颈，基于旧合同抛售存在机会。
@TraderSmooth 市场对磷化铟(InP)当前及未来瓶颈缺乏理解，这提供了一个机会，如果人们是基于2024年或2025年前三季度的递延收入合同而抛售的话。
英文原文
@TraderSmooth The lack of understanding current/future bottlenecks around InP presents an opportunity if people are selling based on deferred revenue from 2024 or q1-3 2025 contracts.
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材料出口管制致AXTI垄断，下游产能受阻，错杀带来机会
他们确实可以，这一瓶颈向下游传导，损害了 $COHR 到 $LITE 向 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡。特别是鉴于住友/JX 面临材料出口管制导致的短缺，$AXTI 将在几个季度后处于垄断地位。人们非理性地对 2024 年合同的前置收益和递延收入确认做出反应，而忽视了当前状况，在我看来这提供了一个绝佳的机会。
英文原文
They can, and this bottleneck flows downstream and hurts $COHR to $LITE capacity ramp into $GOOGL to $MSFT. Especially given $AXTI will be monopoly status in a few quarter once Sumitomo/JX face shortages from material export controls. People illogically reacting to former earnings from 2024 contracts and deferred revenue recognition, while ignoring the situation now presents a great opportunity imo
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市场误读旧合同数据，忽视当前AI供应链的真实瓶颈。
情况没有变化。这是对2024年及去年第一至第三季度签订的老合同，以及针对一个季度收益递延(Deferred Revenue)的滑稽反应。真正的供应短缺和价格飙升(Squeeze)正在此刻发生。市场通常会提前行动，看着大家还在担心供应短缺全面爆发前的旧季度数据，真是有趣。
英文原文
状況に変化はありません。これは2024年や昨年の第1〜第3四半期に締結された古い契約と、1四半期分の収益繰延べ（デファラル）に対する滑稽な反応です。 主要な供給不足や価格高騰（スクイーズ）が起きているのは、まさに今です。市場は通常、先を見越して動くものですから、供給不足が本格化する前の過去の四半期を気にしている様子は、見ていて面白いですね。
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指出市场忽视InP短缺挤压，仍纠结于旧合同收入确认。
@Paulyy_K 这个决定由你自行判断。我只是觉得有点好笑，因为目前磷化铟(InP)的价格和短缺情况正面临巨大的挤压。然而，人们却在反应2024年或去年第一季度至第三季度（其中第一季度确认递延）的收入确认和合同。 https://t.co/5ScwrUYBDG
英文原文
@Paulyy_K That decision is up to you. All I’m saying is I’m laughing a bit because what we’re seeing with InP prices and shortages is a huge squeeze. Yet people are reacting to former revenue recognition and contracts made in 2024 or q1-q3 last year (with 1q recognition deferred) https://t.co/5ScwrUYBDG
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AXTI盘后大跌，博主认为不影响基于需求瓶颈的核心投资逻辑。
$AXTI 盘后大跌 29.54%，原因如下： - 下调 2025 年第四季度营收预期至 2300 万美元中值，此前为 2700 万-3000 万美元。 我的看法：这对瓶颈论点无关紧要，因为价格冲击刚刚发生在 12 月 27 日左右至 1 月（现在）。这是过去的财报，我们关注的是拥有定价权从而带来高毛利的未来盈利预测。 - AXTI 收到出口管制延迟通知，预计将在 2026 年第一季度确认收入。 这只是确认了上一季度的积压订单。这不是收入损失。出口管制带来的延迟和风险是已知的。 简而言之：过去的财报对论点无关紧要，这些只是已知的延迟，收入将在下一季度确认。 更应关注从 12 月 27 日左右开始的需求挤压拐点，而非磷化铟(InP)热潮之前的积压营收。
英文原文
$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on: - Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m. Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power. - AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026. This just realizes the former backlog Q1. This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks. TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter. Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.
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POET 非当前 InP 瓶颈解法，或是 2028 年降 InP 用量的工程方案。
$POET 对于 $AXTI 在 2026-2027 年因磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及当前专用集成电路(ASIC)/图形处理器(GPU)架构而言，基本不存在。但它是 2028 年以后降低 InP 用量的一种工程变通方案（尽管仍需使用 InP）。例如，富士康 H2 订单良率低、缺乏超大规模数据中心供应商认证，且未纳入 TPU Ironwood 等当前架构设计，目前一切均依赖 InP。但 2028 年推出的未来设计可能会采用它。
英文原文
$POET is basically nonexistent for the $AXTI 1-2 year InP bottleneck for 2026-2027 and current asic/GPU architectures but it’s one of the engineering workarounds to lower InP usage 2028 onward (still requires InP though) Eg. Foxconn h2 orders, low yield, lack of hyperscaler qualification, and not in current architecture designs like TPU ironwood, and everything is currently dependent on InP. But future designs might use it going out in 2028