· 个股论点
涉及标的： $ORCL
尽管$ORCL股价在300多美元时，我也曾表达过类似观点，当时他们预测资本支出(Capex)将在一年内从250亿美元激增至500亿美元以上。这是为了履行5000多亿美元的积压订单。但当客户是OpenAI（例如3000亿美元的Stargate项目）时，这些积压订单的意义就变了。他们借入巨额资金只为单一客户建设，而鉴于OpenAI的其他合同义务，这构成了最明显且极端的交易对手风险。加上在Gemini面前失去收入份额，他们最终违约的可能性越来越大。我高度怀疑Sam Altman能否维持1万亿美元以上的合同义务，即使进行IPO（他们前几天刚与Cerebras签署了另一项100多亿美元的合同）+ 他们只是在传播风险传染，试图在资金耗尽时获得美国政府的兜底。这种对可疑交易对手的债务扩张掩盖了其其他业务板块，我认为市场上有很多更好的做多标的，而不是去赌OpenAI。当然这只是我的观点，我们可能会看到因Softbank等近期对OpenAI的注资而带来的Oracle短期反弹，但我不认为这种势头能持续多年。
I've been saying this about $ORCL in the 300's though too when they projected $25B capex to $50B+ in just 1 year time. This is to fulfill $500B+ in backlog. But that backlog doesn't matter when it's OpenAI (eg. $300B Stargate). They're borrowing so much to build out on a sole customer, which happens to be the most obvious + extreme counterparty risk given OpenAI's other contractual obligations. When you compound that with losing revenue share to Gemini, it looks increasingly likely they'll default at some point. I have high doubts Sam will find a way to sustain $1T+ in contractual obligations, even with an IPO (they just signed another $10B+ one with Cerebras the other day) + are just spreading contagion so they try and get backstopped by US government if they run out of funds. This type of debt buildout on a questionable counterparty overshadows their other business verticals, and my opnion is that there's a lot better longs out there than taking a risk on OpenAI. Just my opnion though, we might see a short term oracle recovery bc of openai's recent funding from softbank and others but I don't think it can be sustained over the years.