全部推文
共 6775 条 · 第 158 / 226 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主表示重仓英特尔和Meta，关注后续表现。
@Neomeldir 不错！我个人重仓了 $INTC 和 $META，好奇看看这两只股票在接下来的几周表现如何。
英文原文
@Neomeldir Nice! I personally loaded up on $INTC and $META, curious to see how those two do in the upcoming weeks.
-
高股息股暴跌警示：安全感源于成长股而非停滞的股息。
$UNH 刚刚暴跌 -19.48% 至 $283.31。股息投资者(Dividend investors)和巴菲特跟单者(Buffet copytraders)今年过得并不轻松。来自 $PYPL 的跌幅为 -37.8%（1年），$FISV 跌幅为 -72%（1年）。这是一个残酷的警钟：通过追逐 $UNH 约 2.85% 的“股息”或进行价值投资，单日 20% 的下跌（如今天）实际上抹去了 6.6 年的等待。安全感并非来自停滞和股息，而是来自像 $NVDA、$META 或 $TSM 这样最明显的成长型公司。
英文原文
$UNH has just crashed -19.48% to $283.31. Dividend investors and Buffet copytraders are not having a fun time this year. Others from $PYPL are down -37.8% 1Y with $FISV down -72% 1Y. This is a brutal wake-up call that by chasing a ~2.85% "dividends" with UNH or value investing, a single-day drop of 20% (like today) effectively wipes 6.6 years of waiting. Safety isn't found in stagnation and dividends. It's found in the most obvious growth companies like $NVDA, $META, or $TSM.
-
韩美关税升级致三星SK海力士陷入不确定性循环
特朗普将关税从15%提高到25%，专门因为韩国尚未批准去年10月的“历史性贸易协议”。正如你提到的，主要目标是“汽车、汽车零部件、木材和制药”。他的帖子提到了“所有其他互惠关税”，这可能为其他所有商品创造了一个“兜底”场景。特朗普几乎每两周就会发出威胁。这紧随霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在16日（亚洲时间17日）对内存产品发出的100%关税最后通牒。韩国表示尚未收到关于关税的正式通知。这仅仅表明三星/SK海力士陷入了“TACO”循环，不太确定实际会发生什么。
英文原文
Trump raised tariffs from 15% to 25% specifically because the SK hasn't ratified the "Historic Trade Agreement" from last Oct. Primary targets as you mentioned was "automobiles, auto parts, lumber, and pharma. His post mentioned "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS," which possibly creates a "catch-all" scenario for everything else. Trump issues threats almost every other week. And this is just following Howard Lutnick's 100% tariff ultimatum on memory products on the 16th (Asia 17th). South Korea has said it has not yet received formal notification that the tariffs. This is just showing Samsung/SK Hynix are stuck in the "TACO" loop, not quite sure what will actually happen.
-
看好美光因关税豁免和补贴优势，优于面临地缘压力的韩系厂商。
$MU 看起来是个很棒的做多标的！话虽如此，三星电子和 SK 海力士仍然是我最喜欢的持仓。看起来美国基本上是在利用强烈的关税威胁，迫使三星和 SK 海力士将下一代晶圆厂迁至美国本土（正如得克萨斯州 370 亿美元的三星工厂和印第安纳州 39 亿美元的 SK 海力士工厂所示）。但最近的新闻看起来像是关税逆风下的“TACO”局面（即关税行动取消操作）。相比之下，$MU 享有关税豁免 + 获得《芯片法案》补贴，且不会每天面临来自特朗普的地缘政治威胁。
英文原文
$MU looks like a great long! This being said Samsung Electronics and Sk Hynix are still two of my favorite positions. It looks like the US is essentially using strong tariff threats to force Samsung and SK Hynix to move their next generation of fabs to US soil (as seen with $37B Samsung plant in Texas and SK Hynix’s $3.9B Indiana). But recent news does look like a TACO situation with tariff headwinds. Whereas $MU is tariff-exempt + gets CHIPS Act subsidies, and doesn't have constant geopolitical threats from Trump every day.
-
研究Google TPU v8x玻璃基板供应链瓶颈及潜在受益股。
我持有 $MU 的头寸，但目前只是持有不动。 说到 $INTC，我刚刚研究了关于 Google TPU v8x 据报道使用的 EMIB-T 玻璃可能存在的铝硅酸盐玻璃瓶颈： 例如：钡和锶 -> $SOLV 锡 / 二氧化锡 (SnO2) -> $MTL 化学机械抛光 (CMP) 浆料和纯度过滤器 -> $ENTG 精炼硼酸盐 -> $FEAM 气相二氧化硅 -> $CBT 还没研究完，但他们在该领域的工作确实是一个令人兴奋的机会。
英文原文
I have $MU positions but I'm just sitting on them. Speaking of $INTC, was just looking into possible aluminosilicate glass bottlenecks with EMIB-T on glass reportedly used by Google TPU v8x: eg. Barium & Strontium -> $SOLV Tin / SnO2 -> $MTL CMP Slurries and Purity Filters -> $ENTG Refined Borates -> $FEAM Fumed Silica -> $CBT Haven't finished yet, but their work in the area is definitely an exciting opportunity
-
美光凭借美国制造护城河及存储超级周期，估值优于同业。
“美国制造”是美光($MU)和英特尔($INTC)拥有的最强大护城河(Moat)。 以下是美光的最新动态： 继25日NAND和DRAM涨价预期上调后： $MU的前向市盈率(Forward P/E)可能在~8.2-8.5倍左右，同时毛利率(Gross Margins)维持在75-77%。 随后是特朗普和卢特尼克的新评论： - “任何想建设存储芯片的企业只有两个选择：要么支付100%的关税，要么在美国本土建厂”——卢特尼克（在美光存储芯片工厂，1月17日） - “特朗普将对韩国进口商品关税提高至25%”——（1月27日） 这是一个非常有趣的动态，因为美光作为美国的冠军企业，仍能通过海外扩张获得税收优惠。而三星或SK海力士的类似扩张则被视为面临关税风险。 此外，今天的新消息显示美光正在新加坡以240亿美元的投资加速NAND生产。 所以大家都在问，为什么$MU的估值高于其他存储芯片制造商？ 我们正亲眼目睹美国“美国制造”护城河与“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”中无休止的涨价改善利润表共同发挥作用。 白宫正在尽其所能确保其本土领导者取得成功。
英文原文
"Made in America" is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have. Here's the recent developments with Micron: From NAND + DRAM hike est. on the 25th: $MU forward P/E would likely be ~8.2-8.5 with gross margins sitting at 75-77%. This is followed by new comments from Trump and Lutnick: - “Everyone who wants to build memory has two choices: They can pay a 100 per cent tariff, or they can build in America" - Lutnick (Micron Technology memory chip plant, Jan 17) - "Trump raises US tariffs on South Korea imports to 25%" - (Jan 27th) It's a fascinating dynamic as Micron still gets tax benefits through overseas expansion as America's champion. Whereas similar expansions by Samsung or SK Hynix are viewed through the lens of tariff risk. This is coupled with new news today that Micron was ramping up NAND production in Singapore with $24B. So everyone was wondering, why $MU was valued higher than other memory makers? We're seeing the the USA "Made in America" moat live in action together with "The Memory Supercycle" of endless price hikes improving bottom lines. The White House is doing everything it can to make its domestic leaders succeed.
-
推荐关键材料ETF $REMX，认为其板块敞口良好。
@estcstfreedom $REXM 是一个不错的关键材料 ETF。我还没有仔细查看上述个股的持仓权重，但我相信它对板块的敞口（Exposure）非常好。
英文原文
@estcstfreedom $REMX is a good critical materials ETF. I haven’t looked at the portfolio weightings of the names above but I’m sure it’s great exposures to the sector
-
钨在芯片、HBM及国防中关键，重要性将随锑等金属上升。
@halldj00 钨(Wolfram)相当有趣，因为它被用于芯片制造（例如 $NVDA Blackwell）、高带宽内存(HBM)、电池以及弹药等国防领域。它们之所以关键是有原因的，像锑(Antimony)这类材料曾出现过巨大的价格逼空，但我确信它们的重要性都会上升。
英文原文
@halldj00 Tungsten is pretty interesting since it's used for chip manufacturing (eg. $NVDA blackwell), hbm, batteries, and defense like ammunition. They're all critical for a reason, stuff like antimony had a huge price squeeze but I'm sure they'll all rise in importance.
-
稀土板块受消息刺激盘前大涨后回落，疑似利好出尽。
@u_wol_cos 受 $USAR 消息影响，$MP、$LPTH、$UAMY、$NB 等板块在盘前大幅上涨，但随后全线下跌 8-15% 以上。看来这是针对隔夜或盘前买入的散户的“利好出尽”（Sell the news）事件？不太确定。https://t.co/Pi2mAQ6zjg
英文原文
@u_wol_cos The sector from $MP, $LPTH, $UAMY, $NB and others rose a ton premarket on the $USAR news and now they're all down 8-15%+. Guess this is a sell the news event for retail who bought in overnight/premarket? Not sure. https://t.co/Pi2mAQ6zjg
-
分析 $USAR 盘前暴涨、稀释风险及 $26 入场点。
我还没来得及完全理清交易结构，当时我在看 $USAR 的盘前走势，记得它一度涨到了 +55%？ 我注意到以 $21.5 的行权价存在大量稀释，不过我不担心美国政府（持股成本约 $17.17），因为他们不会卖出。现在 $26 的入场点看起来好多了！
英文原文
I didn't have time through the deal structure fully yet, I was watching $USAR pre-market and I think it hit +55% at one point? I did see that there was a lot of dilution with a strike at $21.5, not worried about US Gov at ~$17.17 since they're not selling. Entry point at $26 looks a lot better now though!
-
关注$AREC作为关键矿物精炼商在多主题下的投资价值。
@ThematicTrader $AREC 看起来非常有意思，正如你所说，他们从钕(neodymium)、镓(gallium)、锗(germanium)和锂(lithium)中捕获价值。作为一家关键矿物精炼商，它是多个主题的净受益者，我需要仔细研究一下！
英文原文
@ThematicTrader $AREC seems very interesting since they capture value from neodymium, gallium, germanium, and lithium as you mentioned. It's a net beneficiary of multiple themes as a critical mineral refiner, I need to take a closer look!
-
列举中国关键矿物出口管制瓶颈及西方受益股。
今天，在美国政府提供16亿美元资金后，所有目光都聚焦在铜、$SLV 和 $USAR 上。 但你有没有想过那些更隐蔽、实则更值得关注的交易标的？ 1. 钨 - $ALM 2. 铟 - $TECK 3. 铋 - TSE: $VNP 4. 碲 - $VNP 5. 钼 - $FCX 6. 锂 - $LAC 7. 锑 - $UAMY 8. 镓 - $AA 9. 锗 - $TECK 10. 石墨 - $SYAAF 这是中国关键矿物/材料出口管制的一些主要瓶颈环节及其西方受益者的列表。 并不是每天都有外国政府直接告诉你该买什么。
英文原文
Today, all eyes are on Copper, $SLV, and $USAR after US Gov's $1.6B funding. But ever wonder about the more silent trades you should really be watching out for? 1. Tungsten - $ALM 2. Indium - $TECK 3. Bismuth - TSE: $VNP 4. Tellurium - $VNP 5. Molybdenum - $FCX 6. Lithium - $LAC 7. Antimony- $UAMY 8. Gallium - $AA 9. Germanium - $TECK 10. Graphite - $SYAAF This are the list of some of the top Chinese critical minerals/material export control chokepoints and the Western beneficiary. Not everyday do you have foreign governments telling you what to buy.
-
质疑IONQ被收购价格，建议SKYT股东避免持有。
@wallstengine 作为 $SKYT 的股东，我不希望以 $20 的价格持有 $IONQ。真不敢相信他们要被收购了。
英文原文
@wallstengine I would not want to hold $20 in $IONQ as a $SKYT shareholder. Can't believe they're getting bought
-
博主回复粉丝祝福并回以干杯。
@retail_mourinho 你也一样！干杯 :)
英文原文
@retail_mourinho Same to you! Cheers :)
-
以太坊国库公司清算资产购买波音发动机令人难以置信。
@TheRonnieVShow 第一家以太坊(Ethereum)国库公司清算了1.14亿美元的$ETH，用于购买两台波音(Boeing) CFM56-7B24航空发动机。 当我读到这些文章时，我简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。
英文原文
@TheRonnieVShow The first Ethereum treasury firm liquidated $114m of $ETH to buy two Boeing CFM56-7B24 aircraft engines. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read these articles.
-
博主感谢日本社区推荐，希望内容值得阅读。
@beauty_oe 非常感谢您推荐我！衷心感谢日本 X 社区的各位。 我满怀感激之情。希望我的帖子对各位来说值得花时间阅读。🙇🏻
英文原文
@beauty_oe ご紹介いただき、誠にありがとうございます！日本のXコミュニティの皆様には、心より感謝申し上げます。 本当に感謝の気持ちでいっぱいです。私のポストが、皆様にとって時間を割いて読む価値がある内容であることを願っています。🙇🏻
-
博主感谢粉丝支持，表示账号成长离不开大家。
@beauty_oe 谢谢！账号能发展到这个规模，毫无疑问多亏了〇〇。真的非常感谢！
英文原文
@beauty_oe ありがとう！アカウントがここまで大きくなれたのは、間違いなく〇〇のおかげだよ。マジで感謝してる！
-
博主感谢粉丝并回忆自己早期粉丝增长经历。
@Gubloinvestor 谢谢！很高兴看到你的账号最近增长如此迅速。这让我想起几个月前我粉丝数达到 5K 的时候。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor Thanks! Amazing seeing your account grow so much recently. Reminds me of the time I was at 5K followers few months back
-
调侃动漫虚拟主播是程序员的瓶颈
@skowihx 拥有虚拟主播(VTuber) Hololive 的 Cover Corp (5253.T)？ 动漫女孩是软件工程师已知的瓶颈。
英文原文
@skowihx Cover Corp (5253.T) that owns Hololive for VTubers? Anime girls are a known bottleneck for software engineers.
-
感谢早期支持者，回顾共同成长历程。
@pepemoonboy 感谢你的善意留言！你是最早与我互动的 FinX 意见领袖之一（也是我最早关注的人之一），很高兴看到我们共同成长。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Appreciate the kind message! You were one of the FinX influencers that first interacted with me (and one of the first people I followed) and it's fun to see our growth together.
-
博主表示去年看好NAYNA但进场较晚。
@zephyr_z9 我去年也很看好 $NAYNA，但我进场已经相当晚了。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I liked Nayna last year too, but I am pretty late to the party
-
指出盈透证券提供法兰克福上市的SK海力士交易代码。
@Ren_aramb $IBKR 提供 $HY9H，即法兰克福证券交易所上市的 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb $IBKR has $HY9H which is SK Hynix on Frankfurt.
-
推荐AI供应链关键外国垄断股及美股替代投资渠道。
我首选的外国股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博西(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃核心(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好“美国制造”瓶颈及供应链相关的美国标的，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)。但这些外国公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何进入外国市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博西这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博西这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数外国公司。
英文原文
TLDR of my top foreign stocks: 1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan) 2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan) 3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea) 4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan) 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan) US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU (memory), or $LPTH (germanium) are typically my longs of preference "Made in America" bottleneck + supply chains. But some of these foreign companies are either critical to the entire AI buildout or capture a lot of the overflow. If you're wondering how you get access to foreign markets? - $IBKR There are US OTC equivalents for companies like Nitto Boseki like $NBCLF. If you're on Robinhood, $EWY / $FLKR provides access to large KR memory exposure. Some like Nitto Boseki are near monopolies so these are the very rare foreign companies I go out of my way to invest in.
-
澄清关于BBW部件用于国防建设的虚假报道。
@ryn_xue 仅作免责声明：关于 $BBW 的泰迪熊部件被用于国防部 HIMAR 建设的报道并不属实（乍一看我以为是真的，结果是个笑话）。
英文原文
@ryn_xue Just a disclaimer: the report about $BBW's Teddy Bear parts being used for DoD HIMAR buildout is not true (I thought it was at first glance, but turned out to be funny).
-
调侃AI受益者可能出人意料，如BBW语音技术传闻。
@ryn_xue 去年有未经证实的报道指出，$BBW 旗下泰迪熊公司的高级语音盒技术被用于乌克兰的海马斯(HIMARS)系统。就像日本 TOTO 马桶因高带宽内存(HBM)而受益一样，有时最大的 AI 受益者往往是你意想不到的。 https://t.co/iZT1gNl7lu
英文原文
@ryn_xue There were unverified reports in last year that $BBW's Teddy Bear's advanced voice box technology was used for Ukraine HIMAR systems. Like the Japanese Toto toilets benefiting from HBM, sometimes the largest AI beneficiaries are the ones you never expect. https://t.co/iZT1gNl7lu
-
博主幽默回应，认为泰迪熊胜过HBM3e。
@CrypticAether 确实，泰迪熊 > 高带宽内存(HBM3e)。
英文原文
@CrypticAether True, Teddy Bears > HBM3e.
-
调侃AI算力焦虑实为童年怀旧，非技术瓶颈。
@CrypticAether “瓶颈”并非高带宽内存(HBM3)或关键材料，而是童年怀旧。我们曾以为需要10万个$NVDA H200集群来寻找生命意义，结果发现我们只需要泰迪熊。
英文原文
@CrypticAether The "bottleneck" wasn't HBM3 memory or critical materials. It was childhood nostalgia. We thought we needed 100k clusters of $NVDA H200s to find meaning in life. Turns out, we just needed teddy bears.
-
作者认为$BBW五年回报超英伟达，讽刺热门赛道拥挤。
人们做多 $MU / $SNDK 押注“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”。 或者因为需求做多“铜(Copper)”。 但显而易见的交易就在你面前吗？ $BBW - Build a Bear（泰迪熊工厂）。 5年回报率： 泰迪熊：1301.55% 英伟达(Nvidia)：+1,258.68% 当你在 GPU/存储/铜供应链中为残羹冷炙争斗时，你本可以像我一样买一只泰迪熊。
英文原文
People are long $MU / $SNDK for "The Memory Supercycle". Or "Copper" because of demand. But is obvious trade in front of you? $BBW - Build a Bear. 5y Return: Teddy Bear: 1301.55% Nvidia: +1,258.68% While you're fighting for crumbs in the GPU/Memory/Copper supply chains, you could have just bought a Teddy Bear like I did.
-
博主回应感谢，表示分享观点能带来成就感。
@Ren_aramb 谢谢！我做这些是为了获得成就感，所以在发布我对某些话题的看法时，我确实能从中得到一些回报。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Thank you! I do this for fulfillment, so I do get something out of it when I post my take on topics.
-
感谢互动，并指出新云投资逻辑获市场认可。
@EndicottInvests 谢谢！我记得经常看到你的名字出现在 $NBIS 相关的讨论中。很高兴很多人觉得关于新云(neoclouds)的投资逻辑很有说服力。
英文原文
@EndicottInvests Appreciate it! I remember seeing your name pop up a lot with $NBIS. I'm glad a lot of people found the thesis compelling with neoclouds.