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对比FLKR与EWY，前者费率低，后者可交易期权。
@SlumberMD $FLKR 在持有份额方面表现更佳，因为其费用率更低。$EWY 可以进行期权交易。
英文原文
@SlumberMD $FLKR is better for shares due to lower expense ratios. $EWY has option trading.
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分析AI供应链中关键海外垄断厂商及美国本土瓶颈环节的投资逻辑。
哈哈 https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7 我重点关注的海外股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博谢(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃基板(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好做多美国供应链，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)，因为它们具备“美国制造”的瓶颈优势及供应链地位。但这些海外公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何投资海外市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博谢这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博谢这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数海外公司。
英文原文
lol https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7
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计划持有至2027-2028年，视IV上升为额外收益。
@exitvalley 我会持有到 2027 或 2028 年，到时候再看。隐含波动率(IV)的上升只是一个额外的好处，而不是直接持有更多 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 或者对 $FLKR 或 $EWY 进行保证金交易。
英文原文
@exitvalley I’m holding until 2027 or 2028 we’ll see. The IV increase was just an added benefit instead of directly holding more SK Hynix or going margin on $FLKR or $EWY
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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不建议买3倍杠杆ETF，建议用保证金替代。
无法推荐像 $KORU 这样的3倍杠杆ETF，因为随着时间推移存在波动率衰减(volatility decay)以及黑天鹅事件(black swan events)的风险。 看看周五白银暴跌33%的情况就知道了。不是说韩国ETF也会发生这种事，但风险是非零的。 如果你想要更高的杠杆，直接在 $EWY 或 $FLKR 上使用保证金(margin)即可。
英文原文
Can't recommend 3x leveraged ETFs like $KORU because of volatility decay over time and black swan events. Just look at what happened with Silver on Friday crashing 33%. Not saying it's going to happen with Korean ETFs, but the risk is nonzero. Just use margin on $EWY or $FLKR if you want more leverage.
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韩国存储股估值极低，建议通过ETF或个股配置。
韩国存储股可能仍有大量重估空间。 2026年远期市盈率（摩根士丹利）： SK海力士 ~4.3倍 三星电子 ~5.1倍 相关标的：$EWY 或 $FLKR | $HY9H。 即便每月上涨15-30%，它们依然处于历史最便宜水平。 https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1
英文原文
Korean memory stocks likely have a lot of repricing to do. Forward P/E for 2026 (Morgan Stanley): SK Hynix ~4.3x Samsung Electronics ~5.1x For exposure: $EWY or $FLKR | $HY9H. Even after going up 15-30% every month, they're cheaper than ever. https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1
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对比通过ETF间接持有与直接持有SK海力士的成本与优劣。
@CapSimplified 问得好。给大家一个提示(PSA)，关于 $EWY 和 $FLKR。在韩国方面，这两者对 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)/三星的敞口约为 50%。 对于直接投资 SK 海力士，欧洲市场有 $HY9H。但价差(spreads)高得离谱，除非你是长期持有，否则交易体验极差。而且你一开始可能就会亏损 0.5%-1%。
英文原文
@CapSimplified Good question. PSA to everyone else, $EWY and $FLKR. ~50% exposure to Sk Hynix/Samsung for KR. For direct SK Hynix, $HY9H for EUR. But the spreads are insanely high, so it's really bad to trade unless you're holding long term. And you're probably losing .5%-1% off the bat.
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南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商，享稀缺溢价，股价低估。
南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一，与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想，这种抛物线趋势（1年+972%）是否会停止？可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结： 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62（随着涨价，现在可能更低）。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%，其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速，且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余： 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头（三星、SK海力士和$MU）争夺高端AI市场时，南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。（尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片）。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白，而南亚科填补了它： 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定，但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于： - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑：2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机：大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品：智能电视、游戏机（如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4）使用这些。 基本上，它们仍需生产这些，但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”，因为他们无处可买，且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。
英文原文
Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.
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推荐AI供应链关键外国垄断股及美股替代投资渠道。
我首选的外国股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博西(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃核心(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好“美国制造”瓶颈及供应链相关的美国标的，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)。但这些外国公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何进入外国市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博西这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博西这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数外国公司。
英文原文
TLDR of my top foreign stocks: 1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan) 2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan) 3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea) 4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan) 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan) US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU (memory), or $LPTH (germanium) are typically my longs of preference "Made in America" bottleneck + supply chains. But some of these foreign companies are either critical to the entire AI buildout or capture a lot of the overflow. If you're wondering how you get access to foreign markets? - $IBKR There are US OTC equivalents for companies like Nitto Boseki like $NBCLF. If you're on Robinhood, $EWY / $FLKR provides access to large KR memory exposure. Some like Nitto Boseki are near monopolies so these are the very rare foreign companies I go out of my way to invest in.