· 个股论点

南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商,享稀缺溢价,股价低估。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一,与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想,这种抛物线趋势(1年+972%)是否会停止?可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结: 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62(随着涨价,现在可能更低)。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%,其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速,且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余: 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头(三星、SK海力士和$MU)争夺高端AI市场时,南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。(尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片)。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白,而南亚科填补了它: 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定,但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于: - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑:2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机:大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品:智能电视、游戏机(如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4)使用这些。 基本上,它们仍需生产这些,但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”,因为他们无处可买,且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。

英文原文

Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.

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