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股票市场是正和游戏，可从AI瓶颈中获利而非投资传统公司
随时哈哈..我不认为大多数人已经意识到股票是正和(Positive Sum)游戏，每个人都能从中受益。我也不认为他们意识到你可以从AI瓶颈中获利，而不是做多像$PYPL或$CRM这样的传统公司。
英文原文
@pennycheck Anytime lol.. I don't think majority of people realize yet stocks are positive sum, where everyone benefits. Also don't think they realize you can make profit off AI bottlenecks, instead of going long on traditional companies like $PYPL or $CRM.
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说 RDDT 的下跌主要是宏观而非基本面。
@Banbo_Insight $RDDT 没有新的坏消息。这个下跌我感觉更像是宏观（大环境）因素，而不是基本面出了问题。 所以只要宏观环境重新转好，股价也会恢复。
英文原文
@Banbo_Insight $RDDT 에 대한 새로운 소식은 없습니다. 저는 이번 매도세가 기초 펀더멘털의 문제라기보다는 매크로(거시 경제) 요인 때문이라고 느꼈습니다. 따라서 매크로 환경이 다시 긍정적으로 돌아서면 주가도 회복될 것입니다.
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晒出自己年内 +1337.81% 的成绩。
我只是分享我的经历和想法。 大家给我太多信用了，其实每个人都是在做自己的交易。 至于我……今天收盘后，我今年年内收益到了 +1,337.81%。 $MSFT、$META 和 $RDDT 今天开始反弹，对我也有一点帮助。 这也正是我为什么相信：如果你的想法真的足够好， 你完全可以在市场里靠做多把钱赚完。 而不是每年收 2000 多美元的付费墙，然后再因为别人免费帮散户而酸。
英文原文
I'm just sharing my journey and thoughts. People give me too much credit, everyone takes their own trades. As for me... I finished the day up +1,337.81% YTD. $MSFT, $META and $RDDT beginning their recoveries today helped a bit. This is exactly why I believe if your ideas were genuinely good enough: You can make all your money going long on them in the markets. Instead of paywalling them for $2000+ a year then getting salty off others helping retail for free.
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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说自己开始发帖 6 个月就快被评论逼疯。
@deepaksirw 我开始积极发帖才 6 个月……结果现在已经快被每天读评论逼疯了。 不过谢谢你的支持，这种话会让我更有动力继续下去。
英文原文
@deepaksirw It's only been 6 months since I've started actively posting... and I'm already starting to lose my sanity reading the comments every day. But thank you for supportive message, stuff like this makes it more encouraging to keep going.
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区分自己与 Roaring Kitty 的做法。
当然尊重 Roaring Kitty，但他买 meme 股是为了逼空机构。 而我做的是指出那些基本面扎实、无论我是否发声都会继续上涨的公司。 而且我会先把它们分享给散户。
英文原文
All respect for Roaring Kitty but he buys memestocks to short squeeze institutions. What I do is point out fundamentally sound companies that would keep going up with or without me. And I point them out to retail first. FOR FREE. Instead of selling to institutions for $20k/article so they can frontrun retail investors.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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说明公司增长对整个经济是正和的。
但这对他们整个经济来说是正和效应啊，而且会把整个本地人口都带起来？ 如果公司拿到更多资金，他们就能雇更多本地人做研发，capex 还会继续向上游供应商传导（而这些供应商也会受益于融资）。 然后如果利润更多，交的税也更多…… 那就会有更多钱流进社会福利项目或者基础设施。 我真的不理解，公司增长本来就是正和的，它们不是在吸当地人的血来建立财富。 这又不是 $SNAP。
英文原文
It’s a positive sum effect for their entire economy though and brings up the whole local population together? If companies have more funding, they can hire more locals for R&D, the capex goes upstream to all their suppliers (who also benefit from funding). Then more taxes are paid if they make more profits… So more money goes into social welfare programs or infrastructure. I genuinely don’t understand, company growth is positive sum, they’re not leeching off the population to build wealth. This isn’t $SNAP.
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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说 META 没踩到最低点，但长期不需要精确择时。
@mi20483980476 不错……我没能把 $META 的最低点踩得最漂亮，但长期看也不需要。 不是每天都会出现 mag7 在短时间里暴跌 20% 的情况。 https://t.co/kLtzZeuFQl
英文原文
@mi20483980476 Nice… I didn’t manage to time the very bottom for $META but don’t need to in the long run. Not every day does mag7 growing at record paces sell off -20% in short timeframes. https://t.co/kLtzZeuFQl
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感谢 MSFT 和 META 提供了买点。
谢谢 $MSFT 和 $META。 这次超跌给出了买入机会，当时： -> Microsoft 跌到 360 美元，Meta 跌到 525 美元。 你没必要精确踩到最低点。 但这次反弹大概给很多人都赚出了几代人的财富。 你最后有进场吗？ https://t.co/gII17cJo19
英文原文
Thank you $MSFT and $META. The selloff overreaction presented a buying opportunity when: -> Microsoft hit $360 and Meta hit $525. You didn’t need to time the exact bottom. But the recovery probably minted generational wealth to many. Did you end up taking positions? https://t.co/gII17cJo19
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说 BIRD 之后会转向量子和区块链前沿实验室。
@burrytracker $BIRD 很快会转型成一家量子计算 / 区块链前沿实验室，在 CPO、可重复使用的中型运载火箭和 LLM 研发上领跑。 等它从 AI 云业务里赚够收入之后。
英文原文
@burrytracker $BIRD soon going to be pivot into being a quantum computing on the blockchain frontier lab, leading in CPO, reusable medium lift rockets, and LLM development. After making enough revenue from AI cloud.
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更愿意在这里做多 BIRD 而不是 IREN。
@daniel_koss 在这里我宁愿做多 $BIRD，也不想做多 $IREN。
英文原文
@daniel_koss I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $IREN.
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认为 Enplas 仍有双重瓶颈，值得在中小市值里关注。
@Letterkees 我还是认为 Enplas 会在 6 个月内翻倍。 通常你不会看到服务 hyperscaler 的 <10 亿美元公司长期还停留在那个市值区间，而且它们在 photonics / ASIC-GPU 测试上握着两个不同的瓶颈。
英文原文
@Letterkees I still think Enplas doubles within 6 months. Normally you don't see <$1B companies serving to hyperscalers stay in that MC range for too long and they own two different chokepoints in photonics/ASIC-GPU testing.
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认为 SIVE 两年后到 100 亿以上是可能的。
@doubledoruk 很高兴听到！我觉得 $SIVE 还有很长的路要走，两年后到 100 亿美元以上市值是真的可能的。 如果公司把牌打好，因为它掌握着激光供应链中的关键一环。
英文原文
@doubledoruk Glad to hear! I think $SIVE has a long way to go, $10B+ in 2 years time is genuinely possible. If the company plays their cards right since they own a critical part of the laser supply chain.
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团队协作，补齐了 MSFT quantum 相关资料。
@duedilligently 这是团队协作，为了公共利益，@latent_value7 找到了所有关于 $MSFT quantum 关联的信息。
英文原文
@duedilligently Team effort for public benefit, @latent_value7 found all the info regarding $MSFT quantum links.
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回顾自己一次性命中了 15 只翻倍股。
对，就是这样……我怎么会这么准确地找出来并做多。 整整十五只不同的股票。 8+7。9+6。10+5。 在 $ALRIB 之后，那个 $MSFT Quantum 供应商又涨了 113%，这样一来我今年命中的多头一共到了 15 只。 这居然已经带来了年内三位数回报？？？ 没有付费墙，而且我在它们启动前就把所有东西都发出来了。 我就是在硬把散户从永久底层里往外拉。
英文原文
Yep… How did I call out and long. FIFTEEN DIFFERENT STOCKS. 8+7. 9+6. 10+5. After $ALRIB, the $MSFT Quantum supplier went up 113%, that hit 15 different longs. That returned Triple Digits year to date??? No paywall, and I've posted everything before it moved. Hard carrying retail out of the permanent underclass.
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惊讶于 Allbirds 转向 GPU-as-a-Service 和 AI 云。
我已经不知道该说什么了，wtf 这是啥。 $BIRD 在以下消息后已经涨了 572%： “Allbirds 完成了一笔 5000 万美元可转换融资……用于转向 GPU-as-a-Service 和 AI 云基础设施。” 这是一个鞋品牌啊？ https://t.co/QViPJDXj1E
英文原文
I’m at a loss for words. wtf is this $BIRD is up 572% after: “Allbirds executed a $50M convertible financing facility… to fund a pivot into GPU-as-a-Service and AI cloud infrastructure” This is a shoe brand? https://t.co/QViPJDXj1E
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感谢对方的鼓励。
@alc2022 谢谢你，这样从你口中说出来更有意义！
英文原文
@alc2022 Why TY, makes it more meaningful coming from you!
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认为 SIVE 的 2B 估值判断是真的。
我真的不是随口说说我认为 $SIVE 今天能值 20 亿美元。 你什么时候还能找到一家对 $MRVL、$JBL 和 hyperscaler 供应链都至关重要的激光供应商…… 而市值只有 6.2 亿美元？ 找不到……因为世界上本来就没几家。 而在 hyperscaler 供应链里，像 $LITE 到 $MTSI 这些名字都已经是几十亿美元市值了……
英文原文
I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...
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博主认为$SIVE股票长期上涨才刚开始，感谢粉丝支持。
@sunnyviljamaa 听到这些我真的很开心，也让我觉得继续分享我的想法是有意义的。我仍然认为这只是$SIVE在未来几年上涨的刚刚开始。我希望你的叔叔也能认可你的付出，因为你一直在X上阅读深度分析(DD)！
英文原文
@sunnyviljamaa That makes me really happy to hear and makes it fulfilling to keep sharing my thoughts. I still think this is the very beginning of $SIVE's run over the next few years. I hope your Uncle is appreciative of your efforts too since you've been reading DD on X!
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看好 SIVE 成为 100 亿美元级激光公司。
@CryptoGuru365 我觉得 $SIVE 有潜力成为像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 那样的 100 亿美元以上激光公司。
英文原文
@CryptoGuru365 I think $SIVE has the potential to be a $10B+ laser company like $MTSI or $LITE
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Sivers成为JBL光学收发器激光光源供应商，证实进入超大规模业者供应链。
Sivers Photonics ($SIVE) 是下一个 $LITE，市值5.6亿美元。机构投资者今天得到了完整确认：Sivers 现已成为超大规模业者(hyperscaler)供应链中的光源(light source)，并直接向 $JBL 供应光学收发器(optical transceivers)。这只是时间问题。 官方消息：$JBL 将使用 $SIVE 的激光器用于光学收发器。今天的消息："Jabil 计划开发一款1.6T线性接收光学(LRO)收发器模块，使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈(DFB)激光器"。Jabil Photonics 表示："与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够提供满足数据中心性能及功耗目标的大规模1.6T LRO解决方案"。 你是否见过哪个光源(light source)进入超大规模业者供应链...市值只有5亿美元？我们此前在 OFC 展会上从物理渠道获得过暗示，但许多机构投资者需要类似这样的实际确认。
英文原文
$SIVE is the next $LITE at $560m MC. Institutions just got full confirmation today: Sivers is now the light source in hyperscaler supply chains and the direct supplier of $JBL optical transceivers. It’s only a matter of time. https://t.co/Eh9GherJTV
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强调 JBL 的规模会放大 SIVE 的影响。
@StormDirac 没错。$JBL 体量巨大，尤其是在它更早收购了 $INTC 的 SiPH 部门之后。 我真的不觉得市场已经意识到 $SIVE 接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
@StormDirac Exactly. $JBL is massive, especially after buying $INTC's SiPH division earlier. I genuinely don't think markets realize coming yet with $SIVE.
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把 SIVE 与 JBL 的供货关系视作结构性转变。
这终于算是 $SIVE 的供应链映射验证了。 $JBL 真的******巨大，而 Sivers 激光现在大概率会进入 Jabil 的 hyperscaler 客户，比如 $AMZN、$GOOGL。 这是一个非常结构性的变化，如果官方确认下来，我个人会把 Sivers 估到 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
This is finally supply chain mapping validation with $SIVE. $JBL is ****** massive and Sivers lasers now will likely go into Jabil's hyperscalers clients like $AMZN, $GOOGL. This is such a structural change and I would personally value Sivers over $2B+ after official confirmation.
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官方确认 JBL 将使用 SIVE 激光。
官方确认：$JBL 将为他们的光学收发器使用 $SIVE 激光。 今天的消息： “Jabil 计划使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈（DFB）激光，开发 1.6T 线性接收光学（LRO）收发器模块。” Jabil Photonics： “与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够大规模交付满足数据中心性能和功耗目标的 1.6T LRO 方案。” 你在哪儿见过 hyperscaler 供应链里的‘光源’…… 而且还是在 5 亿美元市值下？ 我们之前在 OFC 物理渠道里已经听到过暗示，但很多机构需要这样的正式确认。
英文原文
IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers. Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers" Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale" Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains... At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.
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只有一个简短的“Unitree ipo”。
@yumimiya4 Unitree 要 IPO 了。
英文原文
@yumimiya4 Unitree ipo
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抱怨别人限制自己分享免费 DD。
@thetakill 哥们，我就不能分享一点免费的思路型 DD，而不被人告诉我应该发什么吗。
英文原文
@thetakill Bro can I just share a free thought process DD without someone telling me what I should post
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指出 Shunsin 就是 Nvidia CPO 供应链里的鸿海光学封装。
@KDREAM111111 你是不是傻。Shunsin 就是鸿海的光学封装业务，处在 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链里，而且 forward P/E 很低。
英文原文
@KDREAM111111 Are you stupid. Shunsin is literally Foxconn's optical packaging arm with low forward P/E in $NVDA's CPO supply chains.
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认为 Enplas 的双瓶颈与客户结构很有意思。
Enplas（6961）在大约 9.85 亿美元市值时看起来挺有意思。 它们握着两个瓶颈： 1. MLA（微透镜阵列）的主导供应商。比如 SiPH switch、1.6T、3.2T 光子产品。 2. IC 测试 socket 的寡头供应商（AI 芯片测试） 手头现金大约 1.55 亿美元，没有债务。股东权益/资产比大约 89%（一般 50%+ 就算稳），所以我觉得下行风险很低。 而且它们推测的客户是： 1. 光子（MLA）：高度可能是 Innolight、Eoptolink、Furukawa、Intel（SiPh）。大概率还有 $COHR、$LITE。 2. GPU/ASIC（测试 socket）：大概率是 $TSM、ASE，以及这些类型用来测试 $NVDA GPU、$GOOGL TPU（Google Ironwood 很可能就是这个方向）。 “为主要 GPU 制造商以及 hyperscaler 的 ASIC 相关项目扩大量产订单。” 然后在 OFC： OFC： “我们将展示支持当今 AI 快速技术进步的 800Gbps 和 1.6Tbps 收发器以及 CPO（共封装光学）的新产品。” 本质上你得到的是一家同时服务一线半导体、晶圆厂和 hyperscaler 的公司，并且它能同时受益于 MLA 光子段带来的 1.6T，以及之后 OFC 产品带来的 CPO TAM 扩张。 这是我想分享的一笔持仓，因为它在不到 10 亿美元市值时就显得挺酷。
英文原文
Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting. They hold two chokepoints: 1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics. 2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing) Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo. And their speculated customers: 1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE. 2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable). "expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers." Then at OFC: OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.” Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products. Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.