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材料和封装要分开看
它们都处在供应链的不同层级。$AXTI 生产的是光子相关一切所需的材料。我手里还是有 AXT 仓位。 如果超大规模云厂商垂直整合带来一些细节变化，封装层的玩家可能会受影响。 但直接卖掉任何激光或上游玩家都没什么道理，对一些人来说反而是不错的买点。
英文原文
They're all different parts of the supply chains. $AXTI makes the materials needed for anything to do with photonics. I still have my AXT positions. Packaging layer players might be impacted given nuances of hyperscaler vertical integration. But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.
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激光和封装是两码事
这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。
英文原文
It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.
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LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
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MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
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当时市值和现金的对比
@CryptoZ4 你知道我发那条的时候股价大概才 5 美元，市值也就 6 亿左右，而且账上还有 4.2 亿现金。 https://t.co/bQl5AbpzG7
英文原文
@CryptoZ4 You do realized I posted that at ~$5 when the marketcap was like ~$600m off $420m cash. https://t.co/bQl5AbpzG7
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
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MRVL 可能直接买激光器
很有可能现在 $MRVL 会直接从 $COHR、$SIVE 或 $LITE 采购激光器。 这只会让 Marvell 的 Celestial 路线图延后一些。 但我一直都预期封装这层最终会被垂直整合，只是没想到这么快。 激光 IP 要复杂得多。 激光公司为什么都值几十亿美元，是有原因的。
英文原文
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
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POET 很可能被设计掉
@AD14977 我一直说 $POET 是最有可能在后面被设计掉的那个。 他们只是买激光器然后封装……而 $MRVL 完全可以直接去激光源头买，虽然这会让他们的路线图有些延迟。
英文原文
@AD14977 I've always said $POET is the most likely to get designed out down the road. They just buy lasers and package them... and $MRVL can just go directly to the laser source and do the same with some delays to their roadmap.
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POET 单一客户风险高
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap 对 $POET 来说，这不算过度反应。Poet 之前很大程度上存在单一客户集中风险，虽然他们后来也开始接到一些更小的客户。
英文原文
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap For $POET, not an overreaction. Poet was largely single source customer concentration risk, although they started getting other smaller customers.
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MRVL 可能自研中介层封装
$MRVL 很可能会把那个 interposer 封装 IP 变成内部能力。我原本就预计他们会在后面把 $POET 设计出去，只是没想到这么早。 他们完全可以直接从 $LITE 或 $SIVE 这种公司买激光器，然后自己搭建整个流程。 激光设计比封装难得多。
英文原文
$MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.
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POET 持有者受伤
@MomentumBull 对……CFO 这一下确实重伤了所有 $POET 持有者。
英文原文
@MomentumBull yeah... the CFO just harmed all $POET holders a lot.
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MRVL 要把封装垂直整合
@BrokeBoyCap 哦，我猜 $MRVL 是在买了 $SIVE 或 $LITE 这类公司的激光器之后，把封装流程垂直整合掉。 我之前说的就是这个，后面那一层比上游激光容易多了。
英文原文
@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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Towa 被市场忽略了
@reallldealll 我觉得市场忽略了 Towa，因为你们这些存储厂商都在创纪录地增加 capex。 https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
英文原文
@reallldealll I think markets missed Towa given record capex spend from all your memory makers https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
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欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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SIVE 可能是苹果供应链关键
现在很明显，$SIVE 很可能就是 $AAPL 的硅光“圣杯”供应商…… 市场只是还不知道而已（这就叫 Alpha）。 如果你想知道怎么把 Apple 映射到 Sivers： > “美国财富 100 强”客户。 > 每年 5000 万台规模的 RFQ（报价请求）。 > Apple 2022 年大约卖了 5390 万块 Apple Watch，年销量通常在 3800 万到 5000 万台之间。 > $SIVE / Carnegie research 发布了 135 个波长架构，这和 Apple 的应用规格匹配。 真的……全世界还有哪个美国财富 100 强公司能这么轻松地一年做 5000 万台消费穿戴设备？就连三星也就是 1000 万到 1500 万台。 这刚好和激光架构和应用场景对应上。 $SIVE 在 X 上还暗示过来自开发时间线的量产爬坡，我猜那是苹果（H2 2027 爬坡或 H1 2028），但也可能是 Ayar 或 Jabil。
英文原文
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
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每涨 10% 就捐狗舍
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 你太好了！每次 $SIVE 涨 10%，我就期待关注者给狗狗收容所捐 1000 美元！
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ How nice of you! Every time $SIVE goes up 10%, I have an expectation that followers donate $1K to a dog shelter!
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GFS 经历过的人懂 SIVE
@vas_203 你曾在 $GFS 工作真酷，很高兴听到你对 $SIVE 的看法！
英文原文
@vas_203 Super cool that you worked at $GFS and glad to hear it about $SIVE!
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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SIVE 仍被严重低估
我还是觉得 $SIVE 被严重低估了。 市场好像只是慢慢开始意识到，它可能是 $AMD 的激光供应商？ 顺便说一句，在 $GFS 的演示材料里，唯一两家公开的激光公司就是 $SIVE 和 $LITE……而 AMD 的 CPO 项目最终走的是 GFS。 而且在 Ayar 的网站上，$SIVE 是唯一还留在上面、和 GFS 并列的公司，因为他们悄悄把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从合作伙伴板块删掉了。 AlChip 和 GUC 也正好都是超大规模云厂商供应商里的大角色。 感觉 Sivers 的激光明年会出现在很多地方。
英文原文
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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确认想法
@Sopcaja 对，那是我在想的其中一个。
英文原文
@Sopcaja Yep. That's one of them I was thinking about.
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CPU 热度盖过了存储
现在市场都在盯着 CPU，差点把存储给忘了。 但……SK 海力士、$MU、三星最近都在提高 capex，而且三星最近还开始了 HBM4 生产。 $TSM 也释放了全行业创纪录 capex 的信号。 但就像 $LPK 在玻璃核心基板上的逻辑一样…… HBM 阵营里其实也有不少结构性垄断，是市场可能忘掉了的，尤其是在日本这些地方。 它们大概率会从当前的 HBM4 capex 周期里受益。 韩国那边，像 Hanmi Semi（KRX: 042700）今天都涨了 27.6%+，所以我猜全球其他公司也很快会跟上。
英文原文
Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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AI 增长带来的机会感下降
对 AI 的增长感到有点幻灭。 我开始相信，想逃离永久低层阶级的唯一机会，也许就在未来 5 年内？ 关键在于拥有算力，以及掌控让 AI 和机器人运转起来的基础设施。 很难看到新一代人还有多少机会，除非他们非常专业。 尤其是在物理 AI 和自动化要来替代人类劳动力的时候。 AI 产生的所有价值，最终都会流向股东，而且不需要承担劳动力成本。
英文原文
Disillusioned by the growth of AI. Starting to believe the only chance to escape the permanent underclass is in the next 5 years? By owning compute and control of the infrastructure that makes AI and Robotics work. Hard to see new generations having much opportunities, unless they’re highly specialized. Especially with physical AI and automation coming to replace everyone in the human workforce. All the value derived from AI will go to shareholders, without requiring the cost of labor.
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别追高，去找下一轮卡点
这要看情况，这些都是最近才发生的新闻。 如果你不想在当前媒体周期里追高，最干净的做法就是去预测下一轮，比如 CPO 或先进封装。 像 $AMKR、$ASE 已经涨了不少，但台湾还有一些更微妙的名字，比如 PCL 或 Shunsin，其实还没怎么涨。 还是得看具体名字！
英文原文
It depends, this is all recent news. The most cleanest way if you don't want to FOMO in current media cycles is predicting the next one, in CPO or in advanced packaging. Things like $AMKR, $ASE have rallied quite a bit but there's some nuanced names in TW like PCL or Shunsin that haven't really rallied much. Depends on the name!
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INTC 五万亿美元猜测还太早
@cholevovo 关于 $INTC 的 5 万亿美元数字，我也不确定，但路还很长。 还有一个小错误：第一个数字写错了，应该用“推动”这个词，而不是“推动过”。 https://t.co/CrzGnh4Hw2
英文原文
@cholevovo Yeah idk about that $5T number for $INTC but there's a long way to go Mistyped #1 and should have used the term pushing* instead of pushed. https://t.co/CrzGnh4Hw2
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.