白毛股神SERENITY · 中文档案

顺着供应链向上游走，
找到那个没人盯着的卡点。

Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）是 X 平台 66 万粉丝的美股博主， 从工程与产业链角度寻找 AI 时代的供应链瓶颈与"隐形冠军"， 中文财经社区因其形象与战绩称之为「白毛股神」。 本站将他的全部公开推文翻译成中文，按个股论点 / 供应链分析 / 方法论 / 业绩复盘四类归档， 每 30 分钟自动同步最新推文中文版。

代表案例：一条推文带火机器人谐波减速器龙头绿的谐波；光子学 $SIVE 三个月暴涨 1900%；早期判断 $AXTI InP 衬底产能瓶颈； CPO 共封装光学、InP 衬底、AI 数据中心光互联等核心赛道的全程记录。

已收录 6364 条推文 覆盖 1029 个标的 时间跨度 2025-07-02 → 2026-08-12

🇨🇳 博主提到的中国 A 股

共 37 条 · 含 A 股代码 / 上证创业板科创板 / 绿的谐波等关键词的推文 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AVGO$COHR$LITE$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。

    哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。

    英文原文

    Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

    原推 ↗
  2. 方法论 $AAPL$PYPL

    主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。

    @highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。

    英文原文

    @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $SKHY

    SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。

    @chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。

    英文原文

    @chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE$SOI$TSM

    高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。

    谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。

    英文原文

    Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $CCXI

    LeaderDrive创新高，中美机器人热潮推动板块情绪高涨。

    LeaderDrive (688017) 今日触及20%涨停后创下历史新高。机器人板块的热情似乎已触手可及……主要由美国和中国的尖端人形机器人公司 $CCXI / Agility Robotics 推动。以及宇树科技（今日获STAR上市批准） https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    英文原文

    LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    原推 ↗
  6. 供应链分析 $RKLB

    美股流动性聚焦太空等前沿产业，RKLB存在溢价。

    @sokarsokk 像 LeaderDrive 这样的名字处于历史高位？当然取决于具体公司。 美国的流动性运作方式略有不同，通常聚焦于太空、机器人、AI 等下游前沿产业。 如果我们以 $RKLB 作为太空领域的例子，它存在溢价。

    英文原文

    @sokarsokk Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $2316

    WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。

    我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。

    英文原文

    I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.

    原推 ↗
  8. 个股论点 $093370$TSM

    富松因中国对日出口管制致钨源短缺而受益，单日涨幅远超指数。

    我确实说过富松(093370)将成为中国对日本实施出口管制所造成瓶颈的主要受益者……大多数人追逐7.5%的指数回报，然而随机发现的瓶颈可能在一天内带来21%的涨幅，哈哈。

    英文原文

    I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan… Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol

    原推 ↗
  9. 杂谈 $SIVE$SOI$SPCX

    博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。

    如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，

    英文原文

    If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,

    原推 ↗
  10. 杂谈 $300376

    调侃众包名单带动300376大涨。

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376 怎么涨了20%啊哈哈。

    英文原文

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376怎么涨了20%啊哈哈 https://t.co/OdmqmIYB6V

    原推 ↗
个股论点2359 供应链分析1309 方法论651 业绩复盘481 杂谈1564

最新推文

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  1. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AXTI$LITE$SIVE

    LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。

    $LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……

    英文原文

    $LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...

    原推 ↗
  2. 供应链分析 $CRWV$LITE$SMCI

    AI产业链各环节财报强劲，需求与订单爆发式增长。

    今天AI主题的财报简直疯狂，涉及$CRWV、$SMCI和$LITE。 Coreweave：荒谬的~1040亿美元+积压订单，这还不包括Q3初新增的250亿美元+客户协议。 Neoclouds（如Nebius、Iren等）的计算需求传导效应巨大。 Supermicro：荒谬的650-720亿美元营收指引，新增600亿美元+订单... AI数据中心建设的传导效应极其巨大。 Lumentum：营收从8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿美元攀升，运营利润率逐季增长。 光子学玩家一直在疯狂印钞。 简而言之：AI建设的每一层都在疯狂爆发，且体现在财报中。

    英文原文

    Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $SMCI

    SMCI因合规历史被市场折价，不适合所有人

    @throw_away_9264 是的，鉴于其过往的合规失败历史，我认为市场对 $SMCI 施加折价是正确的。这绝对不是适合所有人的投资。

    英文原文

    @throw_away_9264 Yep, I still think markets are correct to apply discounts to $SMCI given history with compliance failures. Definitely not for everyone

    原推 ↗
  4. 个股论点 $SMCI

    基于2026年H1营收预测，SMCI远期市盈率约4.1倍。

    @KHqmjz 如果套用他们2026年至今的净利率，$SMCI 约为 ~7.7%。 如果他们在2026年上半年实现700亿美元营收且保持相同净利率，远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 约为 ~4.1倍。

    英文原文

    @KHqmjz If you apply their net margin for 2026 so far, $SMCI is around ~7.7%. If they do $70B revenue for H1 2026 with the same net margins, would be round ~4.1x forward earnings.

    原推 ↗
  5. 个股论点 $SMCI$SPCX

    SMCI 2027 营收指引大幅超预期，博主看好其估值重估空间并持有短期多头。

    $SMCI 2027 年的指引简直“邪门”：FY 2027 营收指引为 650-720 亿美元…… 相比之下，市场预期约为 524 亿美元，轻松超出共识 161 亿美元。 SMCI 在此次财报中录得了超过 600 亿美元的新增订单。 这个时间线也很有趣，因为他们在 6 月曾宣布计划与 $SPCX 和 xAI 在“一年内”联合建设数据中心(DC)。 但如果 SMCI 能在那约 700 亿美元的营收指引下维持 10-15% 的毛利率……我认为鉴于市值(MC)仅约 200 亿美元，估值重估的空间很大（非财务建议，NFA，我目前基于此次财报持有 SMCI 的短期头寸）。 最重要的是从今天的电话会议中了解 2027 年的毛利率情况。

    英文原文

    $SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.

    原推 ↗
  6. 供应链分析 $AAOI

    AAOI产能受限，优先自供激光器，CPO部署短期承压。

    @Berlinergy $AAOI：“我们根本无法生产足够的[共封装光学(CPO)激光器]来满足其当前第一代[CPO]部署的需求，因为产能确实不足。我们必须优先确保为自家光模块生产激光器。”这仅适用于早期CPO相关部署的初步解读。

    英文原文

    @Berlinergy $AAOI: "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" This is just for early CPO related deployment read through.

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $AAOI$COHR$LITE$SIVEF

    LITE财报超预期，指引强劲，看好CPO渗透及同行受益。

    $LITE 财报出炉，表现非常强劲： 营收：10.1亿美元，环比+24.5%，同比+109.3% vs. 预期约9.846亿美元 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：3.23美元 vs. 预期约2.95美元 毛利率(非GAAP)：50.4% / 营业利润率(非GAAP) 36.6% FY2027 Q1指引可能更重要： 营收：12.25亿–12.75亿美元 vs. 预期约11.6亿美元 调整后每股收益：4.05–4.35美元 vs. 预期约3.63美元 营业利润率(非GAAP) 39.5% - 40.5% 关于备注： 看到：“对超高功率共封装光学(CPO)激光器的需求增加，ELS模块获得初始订单” - 对其他CPO玩家如 $SIVEF、$COHR 等有很好的传导效应(read through)。(可能不包括 $AAOI，因为它们错过了第一代部署) - “NPO参与的广度是光学开始渗透机架内连接性的初步迹象，显著提升了我们的光学总可寻址市场(TAM)” - 营收预测“比目标模型提前一个多季度达成。” 正如预期的极其强劲的财报，营收从： 8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿，同时营业利润率持续增加... 这只是我的初步印象。 最重要的是即将召开的财报电话会议。

    英文原文

    $LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings: Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth vs. ~$984.6M Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95 Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6% Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important: Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63 Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5% In terms of notes: Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules" - Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments) - "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM" - Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule." Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions. Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.

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  8. 供应链分析 $ANET$MSA$MSFT$POET$XPO

    博主坦言对采用率细节不熟，难以评估对POET等竞对的影响。

    @NicolaRussoIT 我对采用率的具体细节不太熟悉，虽然浏览过 $ANET、$XPO 和 $MSA 的资料（我知道 $MSFT 是最公开表示支持的）……所以很难对 $POET 等其他参与者的影响给出很好的回答。https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha

    英文原文

    @NicolaRussoIT Not as familiar with adoption read through with $ANET XPO MSA (ik $MSFT has been the most openly supportive).. so can't really give a good answer to implications on other players like $POET. https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha

    原推 ↗
  9. 杂谈

    博主用游戏经历类比，表示能忍受网络评论区的恶意攻击。

    @zzakzzak111 如果我能应付0-10战绩的德莱文辅助，我也能应付X评论区里的喷子。

    英文原文

    @zzakzzak111 If I can deal with 0-10 Draven supports, I can deal with trolls in the comment sections on X.

    原推 ↗
  10. 个股论点 $AAOI

    AAOI 多技术周期叠加，2028 年 CPO 产能将带来巨大增量。

    给那些认为 $AAOI 只是单年周期股的人提个醒： $AAOI 预计其用于共封装光学(CPO) 的 ELSFP 产能将在 2028 年达到每月 40 万片。 40 万 * ~$400 ELS 平均售价(ASP，高盛假设) = 新增约 19.2 亿美元/年的年化营收产能，作为一条全新且独立（毛利率 >50%）的产品线。 这叠加在他们现有的 2027 年预测之上（例如，下半年起月营收 4.71 亿美元，对应年化光模块营收约 56 亿美元）。 1.6T 的潜在市场(TAM) 也在飙升，所以我预计随着更多产能上线，他们 2027 年下半年的预测值会进一步上调... 对于某些光通信标的，这是一个周期（例如 1.6T、CPO 规模化、NPO 等）叠加在另一个周期之上... 再叠加另一个... 随着 TAM 和利润率像《英雄联盟》中艾尼维亚使用 W 技能后的小精灵一样层层堆叠。 而不是仅仅依靠单一年份的“一次性”爆发。 这与某些其他板块形成鲜明对比，那些板块在经历可能仅一年的三位数同比营收增长后，增长可能会放缓。

    英文原文

    Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.

    原推 ↗

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关于「白毛股神」Serenity

白毛股神（英文 White Hair Stock God）是中文财经社区给美股 X 博主 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) 的称呼，源于他独特的银白发型与一系列在 AI 与半导体供应链上"提前看见瓶颈"的精准判断。

他的研究方法核心是从工程与产业链角度倒推：每一波 AI 算力扩张背后 必然有一个环节产能跟不上，谁卡在那里、谁就握有定价权——他称这些公司为"隐形冠军"。 代表作之一是 2026 年 6 月点名机器人谐波减速器龙头"绿的谐波"后该股迅速成为市场焦点； 光子学 $SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）在他喊出后三个月内涨幅约 1900%； $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）衬底瓶颈、Coherent $COHR 的 CPO 共封装光学路径， 也是被他早期持续覆盖的代表案例。

本站收录他的全部公开英文推文并自动翻译为中文，按 个股论点、 供应链分析、 方法论、 业绩复盘 四类整理，方便中文读者学习其研究框架。 详细说明 →