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MLCC交货期延长且扩产推迟，AI服务器瓶颈加剧。
所以只是在追踪 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）周期： ComponentNews 将服务器 MLCC 归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews 报道： - 根据 DigiKey 的出货数据，三星（$005930）部分高容量 MLCC 的交货期已达约 40 周。 今年早些时候，更广泛的报道约为 20 周，因此 AI 服务器 MLCC 瓶颈仍在扩大。 - 村田（$6976）6 月约为 24 周。 7 月约为 30 周。现在有些已达约 36 周。 这很有趣： “新产能扩张计划从 2026 年第四季度推迟至 2027 年” 未说明是哪项扩张……也许是村田？但如果产能扩张据报道受阻，短期瓶颈应该会收紧。 交货期是追踪供需失衡的好方法。
英文原文
So just tracking the MLCC cycle: ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting: - Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data. Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing. - Murata was ~24 weeks in June. July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks. This was interesting: “The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027” Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term. Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.
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博主认同太阳诱电作为MLCC厂商对全球AI供应链的关键价值。
今日报道，Leopold 旗下的 Situational Awareness 收购了太阳诱电 (Taiyo Yuden, $6976) 11.62% 的股份。较 7 月 16 日的 5.99% 有所增加。我同意他的观点（如果他仍持有该仓位），即这家 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）制造商对全球 AI 供应链极具价值。https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
英文原文
It was reported today that Leopold’s Situational Awareness acquired 11.62% of Taiyo Yuden (6976). Up from 5.99% as of July 16th. I do agree with his position (if he still has it) in terms of how valuable this MLCC manufacturer is to global AI supply chains. https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
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博主因太诱电工是MLCC龙头且获机构重仓，今日加仓支持。
我原本不知道 Leopold 也是太诱电工 (6976) 这位多层陶瓷电容器 (MLCC) 瓶颈投资者。今天披露显示，Situational Awareness 截至 6 月 29 日持有该公司 5.99% 的股份，平均成本约为每股 17,446 日元。当前股价为 9,797 日元。我今天实际上加仓了一些以表示支持，因为太诱电工是全球占比最大的 MLCC 制造商之一。
英文原文
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976) It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th. Current prices are ¥9,797. I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.